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quote:
Originally posted by PunaMauka2
When potentially dangerous weather is involved, naturally I'd like to know the best guess this evolving field of science based forecasting can provide. Otherwise, if nothing critical is on the line I'm usually quite content to wait and see what weather the next day will bring.
True dat. To clarify: Weather forecasting has quietly gotten very good for up to 2-3 days out. But four days or more devolves into a wild guess (per Nate Silver's
The Signal and the Noise). Yet weathermen persist (due to demand) in providing 10-day forecasts, and in doing so ruin their own credibility by being wrong so often. Just focus on the first two or three days of a forecast and ignore the rest.
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quote:
Originally posted by TomK
Thanks, Ino. Some, unfortunately, will claim the clouds being torn off the tops of Hilda will bring rain to California. They did it with Guillermo; no reason to believe they won't post the same again. Unless they actually learned something, but that's a long shot.
Maybe just wishful thinking!
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Lodestone,
I've long since unplugged my television so I don't know what those wacky TV weather personalities are up to. Typically once a year I seek out one of those 10 day forecasts from an online site because of an event important to me (somewhat unfortunately for me they have been on a lucky streak predicting rain for the past several years!). But yeah, understood the main thing is not to become overly expectant with long range forecasting in particular.
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Update.
looks like it going to come in stronger than previous forecasts have predicted.
Hopefully it will continue to push south.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...02015W.gif
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
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May pass over on Thursday as a tropical depression and bring high humidity, high surf, and rain...is not a hurricane.
Still sounds like zero reason to buy hurricane insurance.
Former Puna Beach Resident
Now sailing in SE Asia
HOT BuOYS Sailing
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quote:
Originally posted by pbmaise
May pass over on Thursday as a tropical depression and bring high humidity, high surf, and rain...is not a hurricane.
Still sounds like zero reason to buy hurricane insurance.
Right now Hilda IS a hurricane, she may not be when she hits us, but at this time this storm is a hurricane.
So far the weather predictors have been pretty wrong on this one, even the short term forecasts have been wrong, she has been faster stronger and more westerly than predicted so far, so I am not assuming they are going to be right on becoming a depression.
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I wish we would get rain here in CA. Although what water we do get seems to be continually sucked up by the heat waves that just keep coming. I keep getting sick. Might have to crowd fund an air conditioner. In the meantime, buy stock in fans, because I think I'm going to buy them all
Praying you won't get hit badly.
Pam in CA
Pam in CA
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.....and now back on track to hit as a tropical storm centered on Kau or LoPu (lower Puna) as of 5 p.m. update. Latest prediction was for gusts up to 55 mph on Thursday. Three more days to chop your Albezias or Hilda might just do it for you!
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The national weather service (NWS) uses a statistical-based computer model for predictions. There are 18 other well-known models used by universities, militaries, and other countries.
The original NWS model showed Hilda making a huge northern loop over the islands. I was more interested in reading about the other 18 models, many of them showing a direct hit to the Big Island. The NWS did not modify their "cone" to match the other models until it actually happened. That was not the NWS agreeing with the other models, it was just the NWS reacting to reality.
The troubling part is that some of the models that predicted a direct hit to the BI also did not (and still don't) show the dramatic weakening the NWS models have been using.
I'm not the type of person who likes to shout out that the sky is falling, especially when there are 19 different computer models of the sky. But one might want to google the Wikipedia article about Iniki and pay special attention to this section:
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) failed to issue tropical cyclone warnings and watches for the hurricane well in advance. For several days prior to the disaster, the CPHC and the news media forecast Iniki to remain well south of the island chain, with the only effect being some high surf conditions. Some of the standard international computer models were indicating a northward turn towards the populated Hawaiian Islands, but these were rejected by the CPHC forecasters. As late as early September 11, the CPHC suggested that Iniki would remain well to the south of the island group. It was not until a special bulletin was issued by the CPHC less than 24 hours before landfall—that any warning was given to the public.[3]
Again... don't panic... sky not falling... but the NWS so far hasn't had any degree of accuracy of Hilda compared to the other computer models.
This is just my opinion. My opinion was shaped by observing all the relevant data including the other computer models (all of which I posted early on in this thread).
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Too true terracore too true, it looked like iniki was going to miss until it went around the big island and took a sharp right - proving devastating for Kauai. Who could have predicted it would suddenly completely change course? Take away from all this - we don't know whats going to happen - be on your toes and be ready for the worst.
