HURRICANES IGNACIO AND JIMENA TRACKING NORTH

[terracore]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260242
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Conventional satellite imagery and the latest UW-CIMSS shear
analysis indicates that the southeasterly shear has diminished this
evening. Subsequently, Ignacio had quickly become better organized
this evening with a small Central Dense Overcast forming over the
surface circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB, and a recent objective ADT current intensity estimate
yields an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. The shear
is forecast to remain relatively light and from the east to
southeast during the next 3-4 days. Warm sea surface temperatures
and an atmospheric environment conducive for further strengthening
should allow the cyclone to intensify during the next 96 hours and
become a hurricane in 36 hours. Afterwards, the upper level winds
become less favorable as Ignacio approaches an established mid- to
upper level trough near the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on a
compromise of the HWRF hurricane model and the IVCN intensity
consensus.

Based on Visible imagery and a recent microwave image from the GPM
satellite, Ignacio appears to have been moving west-southwestward
during the past 12-18 hours, and has recently turned more toward the
west or, 260/05 kt. Ignacio should continue moving in this general
direction during the next 24 hours or so within the southwestern
peripheral flow of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected as the cyclone
rounds the southwestern extent of the ridge. The official forecast
track has again been shifted toward the left, primarily due to the
previous west-southwestward motion, and agrees with both the GFEX
(GFS/ECMWF blend) and the TVCX multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 12.3N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 12.2N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 12.3N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 12.8N 138.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 13.6N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 14.9N 143.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 16.4N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 17.7N 150.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

[macuu222]

Seems like they're all headed our way....I'm just hoping what they say about lightning holds true with hurricanes.

[EightFingers]

Hmmmmmm.
Lightning.....
Strikes Empire State Building several times a year.

[Kapoho Joe]

Bring it on!

[Guest]

Kapoho is where this one is aimed for now, says the cone track. KJ you may get what you ask for, better board up and move all your lose belongings.

Dakine, howzit. Would you please follow this storms cone or path as well? Just great animation in the last work you did, mahalo.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Wed AM forecast cone has shifted slightly north of where it was yesterday.
We're still in the cone, but not the center of the cone as we were Tuesday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...l#contents

[kimo wires]

This updated forecast looks a little better as it puts up on the weak side of the storm.
But if this is the final track and still a hurricane, at that point, I wonder what the winds in Puna would be like?

[PunaMauka2]

This season is beginning to feel like a colossal game of cyclonic pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

cyclonic pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey

I'd be happy with that.
It's better than if Puna were to turn into a pinata at some point.

[Opihikaobob]

www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv+12

You folks remember that old Confucian saying , that goes something like, "one picture is worth a thousand words ", well in this case we have 12 pictures , or more if you like, and I would think that many people would appreciate these views of the entire Hemispheric Eastern Pacific . Too me they reveal much more than NOAA ever does.