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"recorded history"
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"And hey, I am not advocating not paying attention, or being prepared, but rather do those things with the understanding that NO hurricane has ever made landfall on our island. That's not hippy BS, or whack job whatever, though a lot of people that haven't been here that long would argue otherwise, it's a fact that there is no recorded event in the history of the island."
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Tell us all, how much time encompasses, "recorded history"?
I just wonder why all of those abandoned ancient villages along the coast lines, with partially destroyed rock walls, were ever left behind? They run out of fish?
This storm Ignacio is just starting to gain some serious strength, should be a hurricane within hours. It looks like the entire island chain could fit inside this growing storm. If this storm moves 100 miles left or right from its current predictions(If sometimes these scientists can be right?), we here in Puna should see plenty of rain and surf again.
P.S. Puna has never been hit by 100 plus mph winds apparently, at least not in recent memory. Most long time residents could be underestimating the devastation that can happen with these types of possible sustained winds?. Where are the safer shelter structures within puna (if) this Ignacio becomes the perfect storm scenerio?
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Kilo et al look like "Shrimp"/"seafood"on the satellite pics. Make me hungry ;-)
***Still can't figure out how to spell 'car' correctly***
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Ignacio is forecast to grow to a category 3 hurricane before the sheer starts to weaken it.
Following Ignacio is 13-E, also forecast to be at least a category 3. It seems to be developing a bit more vigorously. It may be the one to keep an eye on more than Ignacio though of course Ignacio is more imminent.
In case you look at the cone and you know that "D" stands for depression, "S" for storm, "H" for hurricane, "M" stands for "major hurricane" (3+) and both Ignacio and 13-E have "M" in their forecast.
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Dakine, I'm with you on this one. Eventually some storm will be the first, but until then the overwhelming majority indicates that either the storm will miss and/or the storm will be significantly weaker when it hits the Big Island.
Leilani Estates, 2011 to Present
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"The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) failed to issue tropical cyclone warnings and watches for the hurricane well in advance. For several days prior to the disaster, the CPHC and the news media forecast Iniki to remain well south of the island chain, with the only effect being some high surf conditions. Some of the standard international computer models were indicating a northward turn towards the populated Hawaiian Islands, but these were rejected by the CPHC forecasters. As late as early September 11, the CPHC suggested that Iniki would remain well to the south of the island group. It was not until a special bulletin was issued by the CPHC less than 24 hours before landfall—that any warning was given to the public.[3]"
It seems the current NWS products have been at LEAST as inaccurate as the Iniki event.
"Less than 24 hours" is barely enough time to gas up the cars and get all your loose stuff secured. Don't wait for "the authorities" to warn you that the real deal is about to potentially take away your roof, your electricity, running water, passable roads, refrigeration, and all basic infrastructure. Iselle was a breeze. Imagine if the ports or fuel farms needed extensive repair before they could be used.
ETA: Italics, bold, drama
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Maybe they're showcasing the worst case scenario to cover their okoles.
NOAA Error Chart:
DAYS OUT and ERROR IN MILES
5 350
4 290
3 230
2 160
1 100
One Thing I can always be sure of is that things will never go as expected.
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quote:
Originally posted by gypsy69
... Where are the safer shelter structures within puna (if) this Ignacio becomes the perfect storm scenerio?
Assuming you built your home knowing that you live nearly in the center of the Pacific Ocean where a hurricane may someday hit, and that you followed best building processes for such a scenario and have a safe room... Oh well.
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Ignacio is now a hurricane and 13-E is now a named storm JIMENA forecast to be a category 4 hurricane.
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The only other tropical storm on record dating to 1950 to come in from the east and hit the Big Island was in 1958...
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This is the problem I have with people that claim a major storm has never hit the Big island. The "records" are not exactly very old. Compared to the size of the Pacific, the islands are quite small. Eventually, we will get hit, hard.
