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HURRICANES IGNACIO AND JIMENA TRACKING NORTH
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09-01-2015, 02:57 PM
Thought I would share this link my IT tech son just sent me:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/win...,13.19,594 http://the-hroost.com 
09-01-2015, 05:48 PM
"Another satellite view of the four simultaneous storms in the eastern Pacific right now:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/21057720552/" I don't know where is the "plus" terracore seems to be eagerly conjuring up. But anyway, since we are already focusing on the cyclone furthest to the east, the one sputtering way behind Jimena... good news, it is already heading in a NW direction and is forecast to turn to the NE in a couple days towards the continent. Maximum sustained winds forecast to peak at 45 mph during it's journey north. 5-day forecast cone for storm center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...l#contents quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The depression is no better organized than it was earlier today. Satellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely organized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of circulation. This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is indicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. A relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36 hours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All other factors being equal at that time, this should present the cyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48 hours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air and southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough digging along the U.S. west coast. The global models indicate that the shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level circulations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5. The intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new intensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak in 24 to 36 hours. This new forecast, however, is higher than the statistical-dynamical guidance. The depression's center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the latest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of 325/08. A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a subtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should cause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours. Once the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of the amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature. However, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level center behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant low should drift erratically and then turn southward in the low-level flow until dissipation. The new track forecast is a little slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA...0243.shtml?
09-01-2015, 10:33 PM
By the time enough people believe in global warming to reverse it, it will be too late. It was called Runaway Greenhouse effect in the 70's for a reason. Once the CO2 gets to a certain level, there is no way to decrease it...or that is what has been said. They just didn't know back then, there are ways to consume CO2. BTW, it is the insistence of the Republican's that Runaway Greenhouse effect be called Climate Change. That is another intellectually challenged social media term.
"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"
*Japanese tourist on bus through Pahoa, "Is this still America?*
09-01-2015, 11:11 PM
Links and data Ted ? And no, I don't want to do YOUR research for you. Particularly the Republican insistence one which is verging on out of bounds BTW.
09-02-2015, 02:39 AM
By the time enough people believe in global warming to reverse it, it will be too late.
No: it's already too late, and global warming doesn't care how many people believe in it.
09-02-2015, 07:20 AM
kalakoa @ 06:39:20-
With ocean acidification now beginning to occur and with increasing methane releases from former, now thawing tundra, we are barring a miracle, over the edge. Add to those things a secular temperature rise in the Central Pacific surface waters, it is interesting times we live in. I hereby nominate Sen Imhofe (R-OK) for the Darwin Award.[  ]
09-02-2015, 04:41 PM
Jimena continues to behave herself in the Central Pacific. About 770 miles east of Hilo, heading in a NW direction. Steadily weakening.
From the NWS: Hurricane Jimena Advisory Number 030 Issued at 500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015 SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- Location: 18.4N 143.4W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII Maximum sustained winds: 105 MPH...165 KM/H Present movement: NW or 315 degrees AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H Minimum central pressure: 965 MB...28.50 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 143.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 144.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 144.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 144.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 27.5N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 5-Day Track: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP132015 ------------------------------------------ Whatta coicidence. Heard this today on HPR. http://hpr2.org/post/hurricane-fatigued-youre-not-alone "Hurricane Fatigued? You're Not Alone. By Molly Solomon • 18 hours ago [...] Stress from storms that end up passing the islands can also trigger a false-alarm response. While Hawai‘i has seen more than 150 tropical cyclones since 1950, it’s only been directly hit by a hurricane three times in that same period. Even so, ignoring warnings can be dangerous. “We hear it every year that something’s going to hit, that something’s going to happen. But they don’t actually pan out,” said Aumer, who says this can lead to a cry-wolf situation. “That’s when you run into the risk of people not taking the warning seriously. And that becomes an issue because if a hurricane does hit and people don’t take the warning seriously, people could get hurt and there could be a major loss of life.” Aumer is no stranger to disaster preparedness. She grew up hunkered down during tornado season in Iowa. She says people that go through a significant amount of weather-related stress do gradually begin to adapt. “People build resilience after a while. You receive so much you kind of adapt to that way of life,” said Aumer. You go, ‘Oh there’s another warning, that’s just where we are. That’s just where we live.’” The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.11...6/abstract 
09-02-2015, 09:57 PM
Don't forget all of the end-of-world events happening this month and next. Asteroid 2012 TT5 is due to destroy the Earth on Sep 24th and the "blood moon" on Sep 27th is also a sign of the end times (you might think those that organize these things would arrange for the asteroid impact to happen after the end of times sign, likely an administration cock-up), and then we have Oct 7th to handle as well.
09-02-2015, 10:56 PM
quote:What about all those liberals making lots of money to force the people into falling for the scheme? (Al Gore, etc.)
09-03-2015, 02:34 AM
quote: This is a really incoherent post. What exactly were you trying to say? I've noticed that posts made between midnight and 4 in the morning tend to not make much sense to anyone but the poster. |
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