HURRICANES IGNACIO AND JIMENA TRACKING NORTH

[kalakoa]

The common ground here is "taking money to fix the problem, then spending it on something else".

A relatively small storm packs enough rain to overflow Oahu's sewer system, even after they raised their GET to pay for a new rail system.

It's like investing in the infrastructure for hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars while doubling down on extraction of oil from tar sands.

[knieft]

My app, Dark Sky, has Jimena taking a left from far north straight into BI later next week. Hope it's too early to tell...and it doesn't go down, so to speak.

Cheers,
Kirt

[PunaMauka2]

Today's 5-day track for Jimena from the NWS - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Jimena


Hurricane Jimena Advisory Number 034
Issued at 500 PM HST THU SEP 03 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 19.2N 144.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 100 MPH...155 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 310 degrees AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 968 MB...28.59 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.2N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.7N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.3N 145.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.0N 145.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.2N 145.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.2N 147.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.5N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 25.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH



Discussion: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1509040255



I do look forward to Jimena finally being north of us.

[PunaMauka2]

The Washington Post - "NASA astronaut snaps phenomenal photo of remarkable Hurricane Jimena"

By Angela Fritz, September 1:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capi...ne-jimena/

[TomK]

Kirt,

Your app is working, latest models have Jimena heading NW and then making a sharp left turn back towards the islands, although what kind of state it'll be in by then is unknown.

http://goo.gl/EJvOux

The MKWC meteorologists warned us about the possibility today, but even they ended the statement with:

"Given the track record of the hurricanes/storms this season as well as the inconsistencies in the model projection of these storms, it would be a good idea to continue to monitor this storm until its eventual departure and/or decay, when ever that may be...."

Sounds as though they're frustrated as well. I suspect there just isn't enough data on events like this in the central Pacific to make accurate forecasts. It's new for everyone.

[PunaMauka2]

Haven't seen anything indicating Jimena heading "straight into BI later next week".

Jimena continues to slowly move in a NW direction. Weakening a little quicker than previously forecast.



From the NWS:

Hurricane Jimena Advisory Number 037
Issued at 1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 20.0N 145.3W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 320 degrees AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 978 MB...28.88 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.0N 145.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.5N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 23.6N 147.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.9N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 24.7N 155.0W 35 KT 40 MPH


Discussion: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1509042052

5-Day track: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics...d=EP132015

[Opihikaobob]

So I was wondering what might be the effects of El Niño on Jimena, and I came across this NOAA gif showing anomalies in the water temps .
It's kinda hard as the gif is not to detailed , but imo it shows that the ocean temps around Hawaain waters are not as hot as nearby waters, and it looks like Jimena will
not get great support from water temps, and may in fact weaken even more in the event that it turns toward our island as has apparently been suggested by some models.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomal...urrent.gif

[AKpilot]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capi...e-ignacio/

.....Ignacio is now coming for me in Alaska.....What the heck!

Go home Ignacio. You are drunk!

AKpilot

We're all here, because we're not all there!

[Tink]

Nothing like trying to land on an icy airstrip with a 60 mph side draft! Good thing you just passed your crash test!

Community begins with Aloha

[knieft]

PM2:

"Haven't seen anything indicating Jimena heading "straight into BI later next week"."

Yeah, I haven't seen it as a forecast on any other site, even the one TomK shared didn't really match it.

FWIW, Dark Sky now has Jimena kissing Kauai in a very weakened form next Thursday. Of course, that's a long way out and it updates/changes several times a day. I tried and failed to find out which computer model Dark Sky uses for its forecast animations. Their website says they have a proprietary weather service of their own making, but I can't imagine they don't use someone else's computer model.

It's a very interesting app. Has been very accurate in the several months I have been using it. The micro-forcasts are often spot on based on location: "Light rain starting in 12 minutes and ending in 17 minutes" kinda thing. Nowhere near perfect, but pretty cool, and very convenient.

Cheers,
Kirt