Major Hurricane Olaf Not Forecast To Hit Us

[terracore]

The satellite loop of this Category 4 hurricane is very impressive:

http://www.cyclocane.com/olaf-storm-tracker/

Most of the computer models show it tracking to the north of us. But considering the inaccuracies so far this year, this major storm should still be watched until we are really in the clear.

eta: grammar

[shockwave rider]

The fact that the Atlantic Hurricane center doesn't hand over duties to the Pacific Hurricane Center until mid way across the Pacific is a big part of the problem. Often as soon as the Pacific crew takes over the forecast drastically changes. I hope that issue is addressed before next year's Hurricane season.

[PunaMauka2]

My impression is that the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has generally done well forecasting the unusual amount of tropical storms this season ...especially the last few to pass by.

Of course it's only common sense to keep an eye on any tropical storm in the vicinity, especially a strong hurricane. Hope Olaf behaves as expected. Will rest easier once it makes the expected turn to the north.

[Carey]

KFVE just had an interview with a research at the CPAC... he stated that we must plan on this years tropical storm season to be extended beyond the normal end of Nov. timeframe...

One thing is very clear when you look watch how strong Olaf has formed with the jet stream in the far east Pacific. This is the "storm shear" that is normally over the islands, now is farther east & we are in an area of instability,. which may allow this storm to remain a very major force, currently it is Cat 4, with lessened chance of shear on the storm tops

I usually check into TPAC GOES imaging through out the day during trop storm season & this is the farthest east I have noticed the stream...

If you have ventured into the ocean here this last month, you have to have noticed that the ocean water is WAYYY warmer than normal (we are now at 29C...and Olaf is powering up in 30C water...the same temps that are huge storm danger temps in the Caribbean...)

[TomK]

Thanks, Carey. I'm not at all surprised the hurricane season may get extended. As for Olaf it doesn't seem to be a threat right now. A couple of days ago the models were split pretty much 50/50: half had Olaf turning north and then heading of northeast, the others had it turning north but then switching direction west, just as Nora did. The same was seen with the models for Nora. Although the latter models were correct in Nora's case, they were based on Nora weakening which is what happened. Its remnants are what caused the lightning show Friday night.

Right now, all the models agree Olaf will turn north and then northeast, so confidence seems to be pretty high and hopefully it won't give us any issues other than high surf and perhaps extra showers in a week or so.

[terracore]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. RESULTANT HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE LARGE...POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING AND DAMAGING. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU FOR DETAILS.

[dakine]

considering the inaccuracies so far this year, this major storm should still be watched until we are really in the clear...

Yep you got to watch for yourself, and be grateful (if you are into watching this sort of thing) for all the information that's available to watch with. But to believe in the predictive information that the CPHC puts out is another thing entirely. Even Guy Hagi has taken to mentioning how poor their predictions are. It used to frustrate me to see that guy stand up there and say the weather is going to do one thing and then it does another and he'd show up the next day and do a repeat performance without ever mentioning the misses. At least now, because the CPHC has done such a ridiculous job of it, he outright says that there's no believing in their forecasts. That amazes me.

There were a few storms the CPHC were pretty good on, but man some were amazingly bad. Nora was classic. Hilda too. For those that want to take a walk down tropical storms memory lane all of the last 10 years of the CPHC's historic information is linked from this page:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive.php

[Carey]

Tom, One of the 11pm models last night still had Olaf going south of our island...I have not seen this mornings update...

I have stated earlier this season, ALL predictive models are based on probabilities .... based on past storms...

With a potential "new normal" of warmer than recorded ocean temps, these models must try to incorporate storm responses from other areas...

This does greatly effect the accuracy of the predictions...and as we have seen with most every storm this season, most every storm has been "charting new ground" & not really following the predicted path... just look at the predicted path of Olaf on Sat & last night...even the 24 hour our prediction was off...

[terracore]

The NWS uses statistical-based forecasting, however I suspect that none of these models are currently only drawing from El Nino years' data. That pretty much dooms the accuracy. I don't know about all the other models (for example why are there three models showing Olaf passing to the south of us?) It seems to me this would be an excellent obstacle for IBM's Watson to tackle.

In the end, storm forecasts require modeling several different data elements that haven't happened yet. If any one of the elements turns out to behave differently than what we were predicting, the entire forecast can be wrong. We only know a little bit about what weather has done in the past, that makes it really hard to predict the future. As bad as the accuracy has been this year I'm still fairly impressed we are as right as often as we are. In the meantime, hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[TomK]

Hi Carey,

"I have stated earlier this season, ALL predictive models are based on probabilities .... based on past storms..."

I'd agree with your statement about models being based on probabilities, after all, most science is also based on probabilities and significance. However, I don't agree that the models are based on past storms.

Although previous research would certainly be based on how cyclones behaved in the past, they are mainly based on synoptic patterns, i.e., models based on how simultaneous measurements of the atmosphere taken over a large area would affect the track of a cyclone. Previous tracks might be useful, but if the synoptic conditions are different then they stop being helpful.

Then of course the physics of the atmosphere is chaotic, a small change somewhere can make a big difference elsewhere. Terracore hinted at that. In most cases the problems of chaos are small-scale and don't affect large-scale system, but now we're in a powerful El Nino event, I suspect all bets are off!