earthquake

[bluesboy]

USGS/HVO Press Release for this event.

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/pressreleases/view.php?id=120

[Obie]

Here is what the real experts have to say:

"K#299;lauea's south flank has been the site of 28 earthquakes of magnitude-4.0 or greater during the past 25 years. Most are caused by abrupt motion of the volcano's south flank, which moves to the southeast over the oceanic crust as a result of magma being injected into the East Rift Zone. The location, depth, and waveforms recorded as part of today's earthquake are all consistent with slip along this south flank fault."

Add me to your detractors because you first state they come in pairs and you have noticed this for 30 years. Wouldn't that mean there have been 60 earthquakes in the same area ?

[pahoated]

Did you notice the helicopters right after? I recognize the one from Paradise now, it is the one that sounds like an eggbeater. The Pu'u O'o crater looks nothing like it did 4 years ago or even 2 years ago. No detractors dakine, you are always stuck in "move on, nothing of interest here folks". That is a crock. A few weeks ago, I noticed a huge plume come out of Pu'u O'o, in a clear blue morning sky. About 5 minutes later, there was the Paradise helicopter heading up there. I saw it, they saw it, Punatics claim it was impossible. Of course, they often think that bathing is impossible. That was probably the northwest flank wall that fell in, didn't see any update. But recent aerial fly around shows obvious signs of lava having spilled out of the main crater south east wall. Maybe it is old news that Kilauea eruption has been going on but it's those burps that tend to get a little exciting.

"Aloha also means goodbye. Aloha!"

[PaulW]

"the same area" "of this size more or less" "often in the 3.5 range" "similar depth of 8km more or less"
"separated by a few weeks to a few months"

I think that just about covers every possible outcome, well done.

Some of the finest minds in the world have tried to predict earthquakes (and failed), now it's time for the others to take a shot.

I predict that when the next earthquake occurs, someone will claim it fits into his non-prediction.

[dakine]

Without comprehending what I said Obie asks:

Wouldn't that mean there have been 60 earthquakes in the same area ?

So as to help Obie and others that are confused, to recap, I said:

there are quakes of this size more or less, often in the 3.5 range

and was intentionally saying 3.5 more or less in that sometimes they are more and others less of 3.5 and 4 is on one side of that.

Whereas the quote you are basing your declaration on is:

magnitude-4.0 or greater during the past 25 years.

Which excludes almost all of the earthquakes I am referring to. But hey Obie detract away. It suits you well methinks.

[PaulW]

Isn't saying "3.5 more or less" the same as saying "any magnitude whatsoever"?

So you are predicting a quake of any magnitude, at any depth, in any area. Genius!

[bluesboy]

here's a timely article (from yesterday) addressing pahoated's plume post

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/view.php?id=319

dakine - don't waste your time. these folks don't have the energy to truly discuss this topic intelligently. with keyword being intelligently. anyone that wants to make a quick, snarky comeback should really step away from the computer and do at least a few weeks of reading on the subject to understand your conversation. intelligent conversation and internet forums don't really mix that well. that's why there are no high paying jobs for internet forum trolls - it doesn't require any qualifications except a pulse.

[bluesboy]

quote:

---

Originally posted by PaulW

Isn't saying "3.5 more or less" the same as saying "any magnitude whatsoever"?

So you are predicting a quake of any magnitude, at any depth, in any area. Genius!

---

He doesn't explicitly specify, but 3.5 more or less, to me, refers to events between 3 and 4, roughly.

PaulW, what is your knowledge with regards to earthquake frequency, location, depth and magnitude on the Island of Hawaii, for the past, say, 50 years, during the era of 'modern' instrumentation?

[PaulW]

My knowledge of these matters is about the same as dakine's.

"but 3.5 more or less, to me, refers to events between 3 and 4, roughly."
Exactly! That's what it means to you, but that is not what has been stated.
Dakine himself "clarifies" with "they are more and others less of 3.5"
That literally covers every earthquake ever. People do this (often unintentionally) to cover all bases.

Don't believe me? Okay, how would you, bluesboy, interpret this:
"in a few weeks to a month later"

Don't just reword it, give me the exact criteria by which means a period of time falls within that range,
for example: "14 days to 31 days,inclusive".

Then I'll show you how it was actually interpreted by the author.

[bluesboy]

in the world of science, there is something referred to as "order of magnitude". order of magnitude refers to exponents of 10. when describing or analyzing, it is useful to speak in terms of order of magnitude, so as not to get stuck on the details. details are important in science, but big picture is also important. in order to effectively and efficiently work and communicate in the realm of science, one must comfortably navigate from one of these extremes to the other, and all points in between.

for example, if one was referring to height of people, one could say that most people are around 5' 6". someone else could nitpick that to death and say "there's lots of people over 6 feet, so you're wrong" or "babies aren't that tall, so are you saying they're not human". it could be mis-interpreted in so many ways. someone that was a big picture person would understand that, with regards to order of magnitude, the original statement is correct, say, 90% of the time, and that's clear enough, and can move on to the next statement the person is communicating. it's a very important tactic to 'making progress' and 'not getting stuck in the details'. it's also a very enjoyable way to communicate, where people are able to get their point across.

i don't think dakine was able to get his point across to a lot of folks on here, as they were getting stuck in the details. his idea has merit, and is certainly worthy of consideration, and certainly not worthy of ridicule.