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I think it's great when people make predictions, it's where opinions meet reality.
I am interested in all earthquake predictions, I don't care how they were derived - experience, intuition, hard data, psychics, cats - write 'em down and let's see how they work out!
But, a prediction has to be testable. Saying that it will be of a magnitude of "3.5 more or less" means nothing because you can't say afterwards for certain if the prediction was correct. Does 4.0 count? How about 4.1? Why not 4.2? Maybe 4.5 is meant, who knows?
For example, someone here predicted that an earthquake would occur "in a few weeks to a month later".
I think most people would interpret that to be 14 days to 31 days, inclusive. An earthquake did occur and said person
claimed that their prediction was a hit. So when was this earthquake? Two and a half months later. That is
more than 2.5 times the *maximum* value suggested by the prediction. Well, then the sky's the limit.
Obviously he has learned his lesson and now hedges his bets not only on the time frame but also the magnitude, the depth and the area.
I smell Nobel Prize, or maybe it's something else.
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The South Flank of Kilauea is slipping South at a fairly steady rate, though where on the flank it is measured, just South of the Summit Caldera or out on the ends like in Kapoho, will give one variations in the amount of movement over any given period of time. I believe (rough estimate here) that the average rate for the area directly South of the Summit is about 20 centimeters per year. Though I am sure PaulW can provide us with more precise information.
Though there are other mechanisms as well the continual migration of the South Flank often happens episodically in events we call earthquakes (EQ). Each EQ’s size and location tells us something about the structure of the volcano and how it is deforming over time. When we look at a series of EQs we begin to comprehend this structure in greater detail. Since before the onset of eruptive activity at Puu Oo in 1983 magma has been moving from the Summit Magma Chamber through the Upper East Rift Zone to the eruption site. Because of this there has been a long period (over 30 years) of continual pressure on the flanks of the volcano in that region.
The EQs I have mentioned are in two locations between the Rift and the coast. One epicenter is a little to the west and makai of Mauna Ulu, the other is where today’s EQ occurred makai, and just a hair East of, Puu Oo. Because of the repeating nature of events in these two locations, and very little in the way of similar sized events between the two locations, I believe they are bracketing one, or a set of interlocking blocks of rock that is moving as one, section of the Rift. Because of the continuing eruption the pressures that appear to be driving these events remains relatively constant and as such it is possible these events will continue into the foreseeable future.
I make no claims other than that I have, as someone that has been closely involved in monitoring the eruption, witnessed these events repeatedly throughout the years. I make no predictions other than to say in the past they have happened repeatedly and because the same forces that were present then are still present today it is likely they will continue into the future. As such I am fairly confident that we can expect to see similar events in these two locations over time.
ETCorrect auto spell checker's humbug
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his idea has merit, and is certainly worthy of consideration
May I make a suggestion?
How about on the 1st of every month (give or take) people can make their earthquake predictions for the next 30 or 31 days. Date, magnitude, depth, etc with acceptable + & - parameters.
Then at the beginning of the next month we can look over the previous month's predictions, as well as post a new set of forecasts.
What do you think, any shakers coming our way the rest of February?
"How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives." -Annie Dillard
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Anytime you feel an earthquake, reporting what you felt to USGS helps. Latest way to do this: go to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ find the quake on the map and click on it. Bottom left, a box appears. Click DYFI? (Did you Feel It?). Closeup map comes up, click TELL US button and follow instructions. You specify your exact location and answer questions about exactly what you felt and saw. Only takes a couple of minutes and you will be glad to see things you DIDN'T feel!
I've done this ever since USGS put it online. I hardly ever feel anything below 4.0.
Edit: corrected punctuation.
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quote:
Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge
his idea has merit, and is certainly worthy of consideration
May I make a suggestion?
How about on the 1st of every month (give or take) people can make their earthquake predictions for the next 30 or 31 days. Date, magnitude, depth, etc with acceptable + & - parameters.
Then at the beginning of the next month we can look over the previous month's predictions, as well as post a new set of forecasts.
What do you think, any shakers coming our way the rest of February?
OOOOHH an office pool!!! Put my down for... Feb 21, Mag 4. How much per square?
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"Is that on the scale which ranks:
Two dogs happily excited <3.0
Two dogs terrified >6.5"
I was wondering about this, and think we need a pet earthquake scale. Suggestions more than welcome.
Mag 1: Sleeping cat wakes up, evil look at owner.
Mag 2: Cat disappears in a huff.
Mag 3: One dog starts wagging tail.
Mag 4: Both dogs stop wagging tails and look at owner, wonder what they just did.
Mag 5: Cats underneath bed, dogs howl.
Mag 6: Cats chase dogs.
Mag 7: Owner wonders where cats and dogs are.
Mag 8: Dogs rescue owner from rubble, cats give evil stare if they are still around, but come back for dinner.
Mag 9: Silence, apart from the neighbor's rooster.
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MyShake' App Turns Your Smartphone into Earthquake Detector;
http://www.livescience.com/53703-earthqu...picks=true
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quote:
Originally posted by Lodestone
OOOOHH an office pool!!! Put my down for... Feb 21, Mag 4. How much per square?
Nuts!
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quote:
Originally posted by bluesboy
He doesn't explicitly specify, but 3.5 more or less, to me, refers to events between 3 and 4, roughly.
PaulW, what is your knowledge with regards to earthquake frequency, location, depth and magnitude on the Island of Hawaii, for the past, say, 50 years, during the era of 'modern' instrumentation?
If you are interested in actual data:
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maunaloa/current/...ngdata.php
scroll down about a half a page and you have both inflation and earthquake data for 40 years.
Just call me Mike
Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike
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Dakine is still making predictions, just not testable ones. Given his track record, this is a prudent approach.
"closely involved in monitoring the eruption"
How so? Were you employed by USGS? In what capacity?
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