0.18% chance a Tsunami will kill us this year

[ericlp]

Dunno, probably wouldn't be going anywhere. I'm sure by the time you and "everyone" else figured it out, 130,11, would become parking lots. Might as well, go to bed. Rather sleep comfy in bed the stressed out in a parking lot (going no where). Maybe time to invest in a hot air balloon.

[Malapuaao]

Just taking a look at the map of current slow slip activity here:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/seismic/volcweb/e.../index.php

intuitively seems like there may in fact in forthcoming months or years be an elevated risk of a fast slip in a the pattern consistent with some models like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvMUJKFjAiA



aloha

[kalakoa]

an elevated risk of a fast slip

Simple physics: as the polar ice caps melt, the changing center of mass affects the planetary rotational wobble, resulting in greater instability along the tectonic plate boundaries.

Of course, "climate change" is still "just a theory", right?

[PaulW]

Bit of a stretch to call that "simple physics"! We're just a layer of varnish on a bowling ball.
Never heard anyone reputable claim climate change would cause earthquakes before.

[kalakoa]

http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/...-shift.htm

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2...te-change/

http://phys.org/news/2016-04-nasa-global-earth.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2...-says-nasa

[TomK]

Paul,

"Never heard anyone reputable claim climate change would cause earthquakes before."

Kalakoa is both right and wrong. Right in that there are studies that indicate climate change may cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but wrong that the cause would be caused by changing how the earth rotates. Those changes are measurable but small and have little to no effect on tectonic activity.

However, a warming planet can redistribute mass. Higher sea-levels means more weight felt over some ocean faults, and melting ice-sheets and glaciers reduces the weight felt by land-based faults.

I can provide links to articles and papers if you want but it'll be a day or two as I'm busy with other stuff right now, but if you google "climate change more earthquakes" you should come across some reputable links.

[PaulW]

Indeed! My apologies kalakoa. Thanks Tom.

http://www.livescience.com/7366-global-w...anoes.html

[TomK]

There are more recent studies available, will try and post some links. You also mentioned you're not sure that simply dividing a 9% chance by 50 to give a 0.18% chance is valid. I think you're right. Will look into the weird field of probability when I get the chance, but think it's much nearer 1%. I might have this wrong but in general you can't just use simple math with probabilities. I dislike this subject more than most since I have a hard time actually picturing probabilities in my mind, but the math is hard to ignore.

[kalakoa]

Kalakoa is both right and wrong.

The effects will be severe whether or not we understand the exact mechanisms.

Changing the rotational wobble does create tiny differences in the force vectors; this phenomena may be irrelevant, or it may be a contributing factor. Too soon to tell.

I'm pretty sure we're past the tipping point in any case.

[David M]

We should never forget, the only reason the sun will rise earlier and set later tomorrow is climate change. A longer day of sunshine is cause for global warming.

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