Russell in Wonderland

[shockwave rider]

Nobody should assume that HPP is in the bag for Greggor, HPP is a big group of votes but not necessarily a single voting block. I think he thought the HPP park study would make up for two relatively inactive years as a Puna councilor, but a lot of people who voted for him haven't been real impressed or seen anything to make us think he deserves a promotion to state politics.

[opihikao]

quote:

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Originally posted by shockwave rider

Nobody should assume that HPP is in the bag for Greggor, HPP is a big group of votes but not necessarily a single voting block. I think he thought the HPP park study would make up for two relatively inactive years as a Puna councilor, but a lot of people who voted for him haven't been real impressed or seen anything to make us think he deserves a promotion to state politics.

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Aloha ahiahi, shockwave rider. The "relatively inactive years as Puna councilor", has shown the depth of the system these elected officials face. Many before him (Greggor), and many after him, will have to face the same challenges (ie. the County Code, the laws in place for each issue, Federal/State/County, etc.). Most have been "inactive", unless they "play the political game".

Somehow, Mr. Ilagan has gained the support from several organizations/individuals, etc., in this race. His backing (politically) comes from some substance, unlike others in the political arena.

We have had SO many before who "represented" Puna, who failed miserably (on all levels of government; 9 Mayors later, 13 County Councils later, several Senators later, etc., of which my opinions come from).

I wish them both the best, however, in this instance, Ruderman has been nullified in several instances during his tenure, where it counts. If we want Federal/State/County funding for Puna, we had better get someone in who can bring those dollars home to Puna. Don't think Ruderman is going to do that.

None so far have brought Puna our "fair share". We shall see.

JMO.

[BillyB]

"Russell has the haole vote in Lower Puna, Volcano, Glenwood, Mountain View,etc. "

Must be true. The assumption being:

Haole's are so bigoted and stupid that they only vote based on race.

Thats why John McCain trounced Barack Obama so badly.

[kalakoa]

Haole's are so bigoted and stupid that they only vote based on race.

No, it's more like asians always vote for "name ending in a vowel" because they're terrified that some stupid bigoted white people will win the election.

[shockwave rider]

There are a lot of assumptions made about the degree to which different ethnic groups here vote in blocks. People talk about the Japanese vote, the Filipino vote, Hawaiian vote, or the Haole vote as if all those groups are discrete separate entities with no overlap, and maybe that once was true.

The people I know and work with who are older than 65 tend to identify mainly as one ethnic group, like the incomplete list above, but love knows no boundaries, so that generation intermarried with other groups, starting the process of blurring those lines. So their adult children are often hapa, but their grandchildren are even more mixed, counting many different places of origin in their family tree. I've noticed that that very mixed younger generation often merely self identify as "local" with a lot of Polynesian pride thrown in, even if they are only a tiny bit Polynesian.

With an ever increasing number of voters no longer self identifying as a single ethnic group in Hawaii, to what degree can a politician really count on swinging a significant block of voters based on ethnicity anymore? I know Gary Safarik told me that he felt like he could count on the Filipino vote because of his connections in that community through his wife, but it has been around a decade since Safarik last ran for office. I don't know if those solid voting blocks are still a factor, or do more people now vote based on their individual needs than ethnicity?

[HiloPuna]

Democratic primaries are internecine warfare...here's the last open election for this seat, with Russell bringing in a plurality. Sealing the General and his tenure;
State Senator, Dist 2 - D
9 of 9 RUDERMAN, Russell E. 3,106 35.8%
HERKES, Bob 2,756 31.8%
KA'EHU'AE'A, Wendell J. 1,227 14.2%
SAFARIK, Gary S. 1,192 13.8%
Blank Votes: 382 Over Votes: 2 0.0%
4.4%

NOTE; More than 5,000 votes went to his opponents. I don't believe Fred Fogel, for all his charms, will get above the Blank Votes amount listed above. Again, not to disparage the man but most of his viewpoints can be represented by the other candidates as well, and he doesn't seem to have a loyal constituency. In the previous election all 3 of the other (losing) candidates who finished behind Russell had loyal constituencies. And they were much more similar that they were distinct, with Russell being the outlier.

The General looked like this;
State Senator, Dist 2
9 of 9
(D) RUDERMAN, Russell E. 10,487 71.5%
® SMITH, Daryl Lee 3,154 21.5%
Blank Votes: 1,008 Over Votes: 10 0.1%
6.9%

However, remembering the candidates in the Primary you have to wonder how many would have supported either one of the other 3 candidates rather than Russell, and how many Herkes/Safarik/Kaehukea would have preferred a Greggor to a Russell ? Also of note, in the General all of the losing senatorial candidates got app. 3,000 votes. Marlene Hapai was the lowest at 2,800 and Kelly Greenwell, running as a Green got almost 5,000. The winning Democrats in the races all polled app. 10,000 votes, so D's vote for D's and the R's and the G's lose. It's Darwinian.


In that same election, in Council D-4, with Fred Blas the incumbent, the Primary looked like this;
BLAS, Fred 1,599 35.5%
ILAGAN, Greggor 1,464 32.5%
WEATHERFORD, James 1,285 28.6%
Blank Votes: 151 Over Votes: 1 0.0%

and the General looked like this:
Councilmember, Dist 4
3 of 3
ILAGAN, Greggor 3,941 59.2%
BLAS, Fred 2,463 37.0%
Blank Votes: 255 Over Votes: 3 0.0%
3.8%

Greggor came on strong and picked up steam as the campaign lengthened.

Finally, for sake of the differences between D-4 and SD-2, which includes D-5, here's what that looked like in 2014;
Councilmember, Dist 5
3 of 3 PALEKA, Daniel K., Jr. 2,319 50.2%
EDWARDS HUNT, Tiffany 2,045 44.2%
Blank Votes: 259 Over Votes: 1 0.0%

I'll wager most of TIff's votes go to Russell (duh!) and most of Danny's goes to Greggor (double duh!)

The difference is that the Senate race was won in the Primary since it was a partisan race, while the Council, being non-partisan, allows for the top two to go to the General. So...as a campaign strategist you look at these numbers and you conclude;
1. This is a partisan race, therefore it will be won at the Primary.
2. The primary has a much lower turnout, therefore important to have a loyal and motivated constituency.
3. The historical trends in the district would seem to make Greggor a (slight?) favorite.

Now go out there and campaign HARDER, remember Bernard beat Dante!

[DaVinci]

HiloPuna. You fail to consider that in 2012 there was no incumbent. Herkes ran as though he were an incumbent, having served in the House, but the district was brand new. The field was wide open. Ruderman ought to gain slightly as an incumbent this time around with a decent record of public service. Block voting will certainly play a role in the results, but not perhaps as uniformly as some would hope. Greggor is arguably a puppet of his influential masters, He practically admitted as much. He is way too young to be an effective state legislator in his own right. Ruderman is arguably his own man, an experienced senator, sometimes perhaps idealistic to a fault, but he has his own principles and asks for his own mandate. He's not just a cog in someone else's corruption. Gotta let them voters decide though. The Warriors looked good on paper, but you still gotta play the games to see who wins it.

[HiloPuna]

DaVinci

Hmmmm...."fail to consider". Uhh, no.

The District was the result of a prolonged process to secure a 4th Senatorial seat that required a judicial ruling. Herkes decision to run was late, but based more on Calvin Says loss of the House Speakership and therefore Bobs resultant loss of his CPC Chair.

The shocker for Bob was that Safarik was so delusional and wouldn't stand down. Every savvy observer knew this would likely give the race to Russell, the only possible avenue for success was Wendell pulling in the low hundreds. But Wendells a Republican and got whatever R votes were on the D side, as well as his other supporters based on ethnicity, culture or familiarity. Gary sunk Bob, giving the race to Russell.

This time it's essentially 1 v 1 , so who will campaign harder ? Russell has the financial advantage in his ability to self-fund, thanks to his business acumen. He's got an Asian wife, a young child , and plays a soulful bass.

To some Greggor has the ears of a chimp, a vacuous smile, and gives off the gravitas of a 12 year old.

Nevertheless I'll place a small bet on Greggor, he's a ferocious campaigner and has a precocity based on apparent innocence and with a sincerity based on an immigrants charm. Russell checks off many boxes but closes off many avenues, and Puna needs all the inclusiveness it can engender.

History..... or whateva'.

[snorkle]

Have you seen how Greggor points, jumps, shakas and laughs at each passing car like he knows you? It's like an endless loop of insincerity.

[DaVinci]

@HiloPuna "Russell checks off many boxes but closes off many avenues, and Puna needs all the inclusiveness it can engender."

Disagree. Russell closes off things like rampant GMO deregulation, geothermal development for the benefit of Oahu, efforts to circumvent home rule by the state legislators, and Bill Walters getting his own damn baby way every time he opens his mouth. Yeah, Russell works hard to shut that sh*t down, and I'm glad he's there every day in Oahu being a pain in everyone's ass. We don't need that kind of inclusiveness. Greggor has already said out loud that he plans to roll over for every one of those interests. He calls it "having friends." I call it getting rolled in the alley by the guy who already owns the club.