Blizzard Warning for Hawaii ( Last one?)

[Ino]

Blizzard Warning for Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa starting Weds. afternoon thru Thurs night. Deep tropical moisture combining with cold air aloft could lead to large snowfall amounts ( more than a foot) and high winds could create large drifts of snow 4-6 feet deep. This will probably be the last of the major snowfalls for this Winter for our summits.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mauna-Kea/6day/top

Very cold air aloft (- 15 degrees C at 18,000’) and low freezing levels (possibly as low as 11,500’) will bring a slight chance this afternoon for Thunderstorms-best chances Western/Northern BI, Central Islands and Kauai.

Better chances starting tomorrow for thunderstorms in Puna as atmospheric conditions become very unstable- with very cold air on top of very warm air over more areas and the size of the Thunderstorms will include more areas and a jet streak moves overhead Weds.;
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_...a=npac_250

The best chance for mayhem (flooding/lightning) in Puna will be Thursday especially in the afternoon/evening..

I’m surprised that the Honolulu NWS has not issued Alerts/Warnings about this severe weather chance. The Central Islands are at most risk but nothing’s been posted yet?

Clearing conditions expected by Fri. with weak trades but these won’t last long as High pressure dome comes more directly overhead quashing the trades. Long term it looks like the drought is going to take hold here more and more as the cold air sources wane due to seasonal changes and much different than usual atmospheric conditions across the Eastern Pacific continue.

Cold fronts in the Eastern Pacific are more progressive than usual meaning that they will continue into Calif./NA, instead of flowing around the flanks of a High pressure system to get to us. Also future Sea Surface Temperatures are creating unfavorable precipitation conditions for us. Save your water!!

Drought Monitor;
http://dlnr.hawaii.gov/drought/

Drought forecast;
http://dlnr.hawaii.gov/drought/forecast/

Expect the drought to expand rapidly by April. We’ll still see some showers at times but amounts will be very light. Keep this in perspective as I was here in 2010 during the worst drought in recorded Hilo HI history happened when only 62 inches of rain fell- this would be a flood year in most areas. But leeward areas will be particularly hard hit as lower SSTs affect their convection or “wet” season.

A Major weather forecasting improvement is here as GOES-16 has started to provide lightning data like we have never seen before. This incredible advancement will lead to a very marked increase in weather forecasting accuracy. Let’s just hope that funding this satellite continues as this satellite’s information/resolution is a game changer;
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl

[EightFingers]

"The best chance for mayhem (flooding/lightning) in Puna will be Thursday especially in the afternoon/evening.."

I see what you did there.....

[Chunkster]

Ino, any indications as to how long and how severe the drought might be? I have been thinking of adding gutters to a section of the house that doesn't currently have them and adding some catchment capacity for longer term storage. Thanks, as always, for your excellent efforts.

[Ino]

Aloha Chunkster asks “Any indications as to how long and how severe the drought might be?”

Most if not all of climate models are showing a drought in Puna that started in Feb. 2017 lasting until Oct. /Nov.2017
http://tinyurl.com/jdyzpel

This is weekly- click on Climate upper right for monthly and to see other models.

As for severity, expected rainfall for Hilo;
Feb. 2017 normal is 9.56 we received 6.15 inches
March 2017 normal is 13.43 inches we’ll be lucky if we get 2 inches although the thunderstorm risk the next few days could change this quick. After this event no significant rainfall (1 inch or more) threat here until April 7-15.
April 2017 normal is 11.54 expect half of that 6 inches.
May 2017 normal is 8.12 expect 2 inches

That’s 10 inches in 3 months- not a drought in most places but that’s dry for here.

You need convection to get significant rains here and with only one major episode in April peaking around April 15th,we should be in an obvious drought by then.

This model shows our next shot at convection will be around the 9th of April lasting to about the 16th;
https://weatherandvines.com/meteorology/showhoriz.php
Use arrow keys to advance or reverse. As a model, it’s more accurate now less so as you move out in time. Look for trends.

Catching more water is a good idea!

Long answer about what’s going to cause this drought;
Presently a Rex block;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_(meteorology)

is causing the jet stream to buckle underneath into the mid Latitudes and even much further South than normal as it’s presently right over our heads. After today the jet moves North and cold air pockets (storms) will flow around the top of the mid Pac. High which has been to our SE stretching all the way to North America (NA). The Eastern flank of this massive dome is all the way inland over NA.

Usually by now Meteorological Spring March 1st –June 1st, we get cold frontal remains out of the NE switching from the wintertime pattern when they come out of the NW. This is the major reason why the Spring half (March/April May) of our wet season can be so wet here.

Pressure patterns across the NE Pacific look like this could be prevented this year as the High system’s position stays closer to land in the Eastern Pacific. Although once the continent starts to heat up expect the High to be pushed more offshore and the big question is will this be too late for us to get cold air pockets out of the NE as the Arctic source region warms?

As far as we can see out the cold air pockets will flow along the Northern flanks of the High and they never quite makes it all the way around this High to us. Usually as the sun’s angle increases we get a dome of subsiding air in the Central North Pacific which allows cold air to get to us by riding the Eastern flanks of this High and they get here from the NE.

But cold SSTs in the North Pacific are not allowing this High to get established there yet. There are two ways to get cold air here- 1.; it is brought here out of Arctic regions. 2. It is manufactured here by moist rising air and as a counterbalance to this rising air, cold air flows down to mix with the rising warm air. Both cause convection which can be monitored by the link above.

As for this summer June/July/Aug. it will be unlike the 2 previous summers as SSTs have cooled around us and in most tropical regions. We had two extremely wet “dry seasons June- Oct.” driven by SSTs that were 3-5 degrees above normal during the height of El Nino in 2015, then 1-3 degrees above normal last year. This led to increased water vapor in the atmosphere over us and record rainfall..

This year it looks like ( but too early to call ) the SSTs will be near normal and we have a lot of cold SSTs pushing southward in the Eastern Pacific. This could have major cooling effect on our source region for tropical systems directly to our East in the Eastern Pacific. Quiet tropical season anyone?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr.../briefing/

If you click on # 22. Prec Left bar, you’ll see where the precipitation anomalies are expected to be

[Chunkster]

Thanks for the comprehensive answer, Ino. Time to call the gutter guy!

[eigoya]

Time t call the water guy......

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by Ino

April 2017 normal is 11.54 expect half of that 6 inches.
May 2017 normal is 8.12 expect 2 inches..

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That's a great link, but how did you arrive at those numbers? When I click first on monthly climate in the top right and then precipitation in the bottom left, it shows us in the yellow for April, May, June and July, which indicates approximately 2 inches less than normal expected. Or, I'm reading it wrong...

[Guest]

This past winter storm brought hail to keaau, snow on Inouye highway and Gas throughout leilani this morning.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/clip/131644...big-island

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/34714...-residents

Anyone know if our geothermal plant had a planned release of gas over leilani last night or early this morning?

The air this morning in leilani had a stench and looked dirty. This is what one of the recent planned releases of steam and gas from our geothermal look like. with all the lightning in the area I would not be surprised if the plant had to go off line or shut down sometime last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZij2DNNb_8

[kalakoa]

The air this morning in leilani had a stench and looked dirty.

Gosh, you're right. It's too bad there's nowhere else to live, what with "Smart Growth" forcing everyone to live next door to PGV. Have you considered some lawsuits? Lawsuits always fix the problem.

[TomK]

"This past winter storm brought hail[...] on Inouye highway."

Just bringing this back on topic.