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Hurricane season 2017
#1
Amrita convinced me this thread would be useful! (Thank you!).

The idea is to post 2017 hurricane and tropical storm info that potentially affects Hawaii in one thread. This way it's easier to keep track of the links people post and make it easier to search for stuff you might want to know rather than searching several threads. Last year was a particularly active season so was useful then. Right now it's not clear 2017 will be as busy, but we're just coming into the more active period of the season.

I've tried to collect and post relevant links from the Fernanda thread (http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=23750). My apologies if I missed something, and thanks to those who posted them.

Current threat - Fernanda:

"Much can change in 10 days. However, the models are rarely show this tight of a consensus, especially beyond 120 hours.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062017_late.png
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062..._inten.png
"

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"As hopefully we are alone in the "prep just in case & have a cleaned up yard & such#699; mode, I#699;m not sure which forecast has the hurricane petering out... if you are looking at the 5-day storm forecast, it still has a storm coming, but not here in 5 days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.sht...e#contents
If you look at the long-term models, most of the storm tracks for Fernanda either continue, as a storm through the islands, or veer north & continue north just east of the islands, as of tonight:
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ep062017_late.png
"

----

More general info:

"Here's another spaghetti model link to add to the one already posted by The_Saints (above). For the moment, most project the storm to weaken and pass south the islands:
http://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/
"

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"A fave link of ours .

https://www.windy.com/?15.856,-142.998,5
"

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Stay safe!
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#2
Oh, and Ino's tropical outlook thread for Hawaii which is full of great information. Thanks, Ino!

http://www.punaweb.org/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=23700
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#3
Mahalo Tom. I shall check this daily for the quintessential info. [8D]
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#4
FERNANDA Monday 7/17 Update:

11 AM Thursday 7/20 - downgrade to tropical storm
11 AM Saturday 7/22 - further downgrade to tropical depression
Remnants of storm projected to reach the Big Island early next week

Four people are in a room and seven leave. How many have to enter again before it's empty?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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#5
Another system has formed in the Eastern Pacific, tropical depression Seven-E, but doesn't seem to have much of a future and looks to be no threat to us. In between Fernanda and Seven-E, there's a disturbance which has a high (70%) chance of forming a new storm. It might be worth keeping an eye on.
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#6
http://kauscience.k12.hi.us/~ted/wx-khs.htm


Another good site .

Originally posted by TomK 4 or 5 years ago.


Mrs.Mimosa
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#7
The East Pacific disturbance I mentioned yesterday is now tropical depression Eight-E but doesn't look too threatening. It's forecast to meander around a bit without really developing. Seven-E is now a tropical storm but again doesn't look to have a long future (and might interact with Eight-E). Fernanda looks to heading north of the islands as a remnant.
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#8
Mahalo Mrs. Mimosa, TomK and Mr. B in Kau who every you may be. Appreciate the many links in one place. At 75 simplification rocks.
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#9
The latest reports I've seen include:

No real change with Fernanda. Seven-E is now tropical storm Greg and might become a hurricane, but is due to weaken shortly afterward. No change to Eight-E, it doesn't seem to going anywhere.

There are two new disturbances in the East Pacific. One of them is following behind Greg and has a high chance of forming a storm. The other is farther behind and has a medium chance of formation. The Eastern Pacific has suddenly become quite busy.

Current East Pacific image: https://goo.gl/Qz9xt4
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#10
Fernanda is no more, fortunately, although there are now three storms in the East Pacific: Greg, Hilary, and Irwin. I don't think any are a threat to Hawaii, although we may see the remnants of Greg in a week and Hilary looks to become a major hurricane shortly. However, it's a long way from the islands and will move into cooler waters later in the coming week.
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