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quote:
Originally posted by Chunkster
While "wipe out most of everything West of the Rockies" might be a bit of an exaggeration, an SF Bay detonation would indeed be catastrophic.
Right. The dispersal of the cloud of suspended airborne radioactive material (AKA: "fallout") would be considerable, but this would also dilute the dosage as the distance from ground zero increases. Fatalities from radiation sickness would be limited to northern California; fatalities from enhanced cancer rates would be the case for "everything west of the Rockies".
FWIW, the North Koreans are being oddly specific with their latest threats: four missiles, Guam, offshore, mid-August.
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"FWIW, the North Koreans are being oddly specific with their latest threats: four missiles, Guam, offshore, mid-August."
Their MO has always been deception. My guess is whatever they are broadcasting, is a distraction from whatever their real plan is. My "guess" is that they are trying to taunt Trump into a pre-emptive strike to drag China into the mess.
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quote:
Originally posted by terracore
"FWIW, the North Koreans are being oddly specific with their latest threats: four missiles, Guam, offshore, mid-August."
Their MO has always been deception. My guess is whatever they are broadcasting, is a distraction from whatever their real plan is. My "guess" is that they are trying to taunt Trump into a pre-emptive strike to drag China into the mess.
NK is not a large country, so that would be foolish. There's really no way aggression by NK would not end in disaster for them, even if it continued with a war against China. NK would be wiped away clean almost before it started. A Preemptive nuclear strike against them would destroy them utterly
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quote:
Originally posted by Hunt Stoddard
A Preemptive nuclear strike against them would destroy them utterly
Well, yes... but are we really going to kill upwards of 25 million innocent souls because their dictator made threats? And what if they manage to hit back?
And...that fallout thing... South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia are the affected next-door neighbors.
The irony is that we don't have any real issues with North Korea other than their nuclear program. So, we should start a nuclear war purely because we are afraid someone else might start a nuclear war?[xx(]
ETA: A conventional strike is probably on the table, perhaps with in tandem with a ground invasion by US/South Korean forces. I'm pretty sure the South Koreans are strongly opposed... most of North Korea's nuclear arsenal can't reach the mainland USA, but ALL of it can be lobbed over the border.
Here's hoping that cooler heads prevail, but noting that neither of the leaders involved are known for their restraint.
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There's a lot of good historical and hypothetical info on the use of nuclear weapons posted here today. I'd like to pose a specific question about what those affects might be on Big Island should North Korea send a missile toward Hawaii.
First of all, as mentioned earlier the likelihood of North Korea attacking Hawaii is probably minimal. If they did however, the most likely target would be Oahu, in particular Pearl Harbor and Hickam.
If that were to occur, there are two potential scenarios which would play out several hundred miles west of here:
1) High atmosphere EMP burst
2) Low level detonation over land, or possibly sea.
If that happened:
Would electronic devices lose any functionality on Big Island?
Would we receive any fallout?
Would there be any significant danger that would require us to shelter in a concrete building for 2 weeks as recommended by state civil defense?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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HOTPE: Ordinarily, a strike at Hickam and Pearl Harbor makes sound military sense. But North Korea has no hope of defeating us militarily, so it is possible that they might target the Big Island simply because it's a Big Target and they don't wanna miss. (Have a nice day.)
That said, presuming an Oahu strike..
I think MOST electronic devices would be OK at this distance... but am not certain. Probably the least of our worries.
The fallout would probably not be immediately life-threatening (death by radiation sickness), but we might be in for some serious contamination/cancer issues. Trade winds and distance should suffice (Ino?? Little help???). Can't be as confident regarding Molokai our Kauai.
I don't recommend being on the roadways at all...panicked drivers everywhere... hospitals packed...stay put, wear a dust mask if you've got one, take an iodine supplement (most multivitamins have enough). Don't drink the rainwater. We should be fine, just hunker down - the real victims will be on Oahu and I wouldn't be surprised if our island becomes an enormous MASH hospital housing the hundreds of thousands of wounded from there.
Sorry I can't be more certain... no idea what the size/yield of North Korea's nukes are... I doubt anybody does. They are probably primitive, but so were the ones dropped on Japan.
For those who might a appreciate a nuanced approximation of the geopolitical situation, I think this scene from Pulp Fiction pretty much sums it up...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56QV8W0FUvU
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they might target the Big Island simply because
...they could leverage the active volcano? Or because they read the news, and know that nobody will care if the Big Island gets nuked? It's just those hippies with the unpermitted shacks, rat lungworm, fire ants, coqui ... maybe they'd be doing us all a favor.
Seriously: the norks haven't demonstrated that they can hit something accurately, nor is it clear that they actually have nuclear weapons. That said, bring it on and let's get this crap over with, I'm tired of the "we can do it, we're totally doing it, you're going to be sorry, nyaa nyaa nyaa" posturing.
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quote:
Originally posted by kalakoa
Seriously: the norks haven't demonstrated that they can hit something accurately, nor is it clear that they actually have nuclear weapons.
No, they've definitely got them. Between the seimic pulse and the radiation and EMP spikes, nuclear detonations are impossible to fake. The real question is whether they've managed to make them small enough to fit on their ICBMs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nu...orth_Korea
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OK.
I've found a site where you can "get it over with" and drop your own bomb. It's called appropriately enough, Nukemap. You input the target coordinates, which to answer my own question would be Honolulu. Then pick the size of the weapon and whether it's an airburst or surface strike.
If Honolulu were to get hit with a North Korean size bomb the fallout would travel northeast over Oahu, then out over open water missing all of the other islands in the chain. Big Island would be unaffected, well to the south and east.
Try it yourself:
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Moonless, this June night is all the more alive with stars. It's darkness is perfumed with faint gusts from the blossoming lime trees, with the smell of wetted earth and the invisible greenness of the vines. -Music At Night, Aldous Huxley
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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whether they've managed to make them small enough to fit on their ICBMs
Nor have they proven they can hit a target, and they know full well they'll be bombed into the stone age if they actually do manage to nuke something.
Fortunately for us, we live somewhere that's totally irrelevant.
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