Hurricane season 2017

[TomK]

Regarding the thunderstorms north of the island we were talking about a little earlier, this is some pretty stunning footage. Lightning and "Gigantic Jets" (super-sprites I guess) observed by the Gemini North Observatory:

Komonews.com: https://goo.gl/S1KGQT

[PaulW]

Next one has to be Jeb then.

[terracore]

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor the potential development of a tropical depression southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. As of 200 AM HST, the probability of development within 48 hours remains medium, while the probability is high that a weak tropical cyclone may develop during the next 5 days. For additional information on this system, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by CPHC at weather.gov/cphc. Since it is still too early to know if an organized tropical system will actually develop, the potential changes in weather conditions over the main Hawaiian Islands later this weekend or early next week also remain uncertain at this time. Based on the long range forecast models, the biggest potential impacts may be a strengthening of trade wind speeds, plus the possibility of more organized and persistent showers, especially over the Big Island.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain
disorganized early this morning. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next few days as it moves slowly toward the
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.

Forecaster Houston

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/TWO.php?basin=cpas&fdays=5

[terracore]

UPDATED:

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Thu Aug 17 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
have diminished dramatically since this morning. At best,
environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for
development of this system over the next day or so as it drifts
toward the west-northwest. After a couple of days,
conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next
5 days.

Forecaster Powell


ETA: UPDATED

[TomK]

The Mauna Kea Weather Center is currently saying that they don't think this will become a cyclone, but the last few model runs show the area of tropical moisture moving over the Big Island with a chance of convection (thunderstorms) on Sunday and Monday. Even if that doesn't happen, Sunday and Monday might be a little humid and sticky.

[terracore]

You're right again. So far over 3 inches of rain this afternoon, 98% humidity, and some thunder. At least it's cool mid-70's.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Good article in the New Yorker about hurricane forecasting. Fortunately we've had a quiet season so far, so that leaves a little extra time to read about hurricanes instead of battening down the hatches. Perhaps Ino or another Punaweb weather fan can weigh in on specific details that affect us directly here in the mid Pacific. For those interested in the satellites and processing behind the forecasts here are a few choice excerpts from the article:

All of this is thanks to the armada of satellites and instruments that now orbits the planet, marking Earth’s every shift and exhalation and returning a torrent of data to us on the surface...
Among the dozens of Earth-observing satellites, belonging to various nations, are several used exclusively for weather forecasting. These include four geostationary satellites, GOES-13 through GOES-16, which sit high above Earth and monitor the planet as it rotates below. Five more orbit the poles every ninety minutes, monitoring a fresh north-south swath of Earth with each passage—“like peeling an orange,”

All this data is fed into forecasting models of staggering power and elegance...
For a long time, the U.S. model, known at the Global Forecast System, was the top of the line, but it is increasingly being surpassed by the European Centre’s higher-resolution model, based in Reading, England. (The European model accurately forecast the final landfall for Sandy, while the G.F.S. was off by several miles.) “It’s almost like a CAT scan of the atmosphere,” Mass said.
https://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/...-the-proof

The Donner Party really wasn't that great of a party, was it?

[oink]

Wish the hell I was in Puna about now!


Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.

[Wailua Boy]

I really feel for anyone experiencing Irma, fierce.

[terracore]

Wishing you the best Oink.