BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT - what did you do?

[geochem]

quote:

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Originally posted by kalakoa

having an in home shelter would be the way to go

Where do I get permits/inspections and a licensed contractor to build one?

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It's called a Safe Room and is incorporated into the building code - with specifications for what is required to qualify as such. Much whining about the safe room option when the code was adopted, but it was offered as an alternative to much more expensive upgrades to the entire house that would be needed to allow (many/most) homes in Hawaii to withstand hurricane force winds.

[kalakoa]

You can't fake the seismic and fission products of nuclear detonation

Nukes going off under North Korea doesn't necessarily mean they were North Korean nukes.

[MarkP]

Comment to recent Star Advertiser story:

"Get rid of the exercise. We would like our last 13 minutes without stress and do not wish to die from the side effects of radiation burns. Instant death is much better."

I'm no expert on nuclear blasts but neither am I on the majority of other issues that I deal with daily. I get by by reading as much as I can and discarding that which simply doesn't fit. When I do that in this case I see that the desired "instant death" is a pipe dream given the most likely scenario of a limited strike. The aftermath of a limited strike would indeed be horrible and would probably be the equal of an earthquake, tsunami, and hurricane combined but for the majority of potential victims there is the option of having that with or without some of the worst additional effects of fallout.

ETA: I can see the difficulty in packaging this message for general consumption.

[MarkD]

Posted exchange:

You can't fake the seismic and fission products of nuclear detonation Nukes going off under North Korea doesn't necessarily mean they were North Korean nukes.

Comment: Last night 60 Minutes had a detailed segment on North Korea's nuclear technology. They have nukes. It is possible North Korea bought one from some other nation and detonated it. (implausible). It is possible the Chinese dug a secret tunnel under their border with North Korea and set off a nuke to create some sort of discord. (highly implausible)

We need to accept that the nukes that were exploded under North Korean soil were North Korean.

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Another post: "North Korea nukes are only meaningful as a threat; they lose all value if launched."

No, they increase in value if launched, when the nation has more than one nuke, which North Korea does. (The experts said on 60 Minutes that North Korea has between 15-60 nukes.) Because a nation that fires one nuke might fire more.

North Korea probably will not fire any nukes.

The real fear--highly improbable but possible--is that North Korea will secretly ship a nuke to some terrorist group, which would then set it off somewhere. (Israel? NY City?) Because unstable Pakistan also has nukes, and there is not 100% certainty that all nukes of the former Soviet Union have been accounted for (there is debate on this), a terrorist explosion of a nuclear bomb somewhere in the world would be believed to be North Korean's doing, but the world would not be 100% sure.

Hence there would be debate about attacking North Korea in response (amid the anguish over having the first nuke set off in a populated area since 1945 [Japan]). A critical world crises.

[Wao nahele kane]

Due to the predominate wind direction, here on the Big Island, if Hilo were struck, it's very likely that everyone South of the Northerly rift would be safe, unless the winds shift. Those atop and North of the rift would face some problems, more increasingly severe the closer to Hilo. The Observatories, the Saddle and around to the Northern slopes of Mauna Kea would face the brunt of fallout, extending into Waikaloa, Wiamea and into Kona. The North West and mid West side of the island would be the most likely areas to avoid, again, depending on wind directions and obviously Hilo and West thereof.

Evening hours may bring some down slope winds into Puna and evening hours would be the most likely time fallout would appear. The South end of the Island would likely be the safest area of the Island to avoid fallout.

Eta:
This gives Puna residents time to prepare for fallout after a detonation in Hilo. Should the predominate winds prevail during the unthinkable.
Time to seal water catchments, etc.

[Wao nahele kane]

Fallout is radioactive material, it can accumulate on pollen and other airborne micro debri. Use of a positive flow Hepa filter will reduce fallout entering a sealed environment by around 99.8% to 99.9%. The small amount of exposure isn't enough to make one ill but a daily dose of nascent iodine would still be recommended because of continued low level exposures to fallout.

Simple stuff and not beyond the reach of the average person.

[Lodestone]

quote:

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Originally posted by kalakoa

You can't fake the seismic and fission products of nuclear detonation

Nukes going off under North Korea doesn't necessarily mean they were North Korean nukes.

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Devious. I hadn't considered that, and I like the way your mind works.[] Might Kim Jong-un want people to think he had nukes without having to develop them himself? Yup. Might certain countries with nukes enjoy having the USA chasing its tail over this "threat"? I can think of at least two. Or, would certain agencies in our own country profit from keeping us afraid, very afraid... yeah.

That said, I still believe they have nukes. Sadly, they are not all that difficult to make... definitely easier than making reliable ICBMs.

[MarkD]

I was mistaken when I earlier wrote that former Soviet countries have nukes. Wikipedia data:

At the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Soviet nuclear weapons were deployed in four of the new republics: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In May 1992, these four states agreed to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The three nations returned their weapons to Russia.

Here is the 9-nation "nuclear club": The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

There has been concern about the security about Pakistan's nukes.

Following is the text for last night's 60 Minutes interview with Sig Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, on North Korea's nukes.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-america...r-secrets/

At the end of 2016 North Korea was believed to have 13 to 30 nukes. Some have suggested the number might now have risen 60. The notion that the nuclear weapons that have been set off underground in North Korea were not made by North Korea is exceedingly far fetched.

North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on 3 September 2017.

[ElysianWort]

I quickly turned on the radio and TV, nothing at all about it on, then texted family on mainland. Got a return text from family that it was a mistake within 10 minutes. Then got to thinking that even if there is an actual launch, it's unlikely North Korea will hit target with all the anti missile defense systems that are set up and used as a defense. (Isn't our technology better and more advanced than theirs?)

[Rob Tucker]

I see North Korea's nuclear weapons as a logical deterrence to American aggression. We have recently invaded countries who lacked nuclear arms (Afhganistan and Iraq) and studiously avoided invading countries that have them (like Pakistan).

There is no incentive for N. Korea to attack Hawaii unless attacked first. It was George Bush who introduced preemptive warfare theory to our politics. I consider us to be safe unless President $hithole does something really, really stupid.