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Will it go up or down?
Well, as economist Eliot Janeway once remarked about the stock market . . . "Yes, but not right away". 
aloha,
Gene
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Here is John's article; Sorry it was in the bulk box.Which I agree on btw.
How come everyone blames the front man? I guess thats the same mentality that got Bush elected.
The Grass-Shack Money Machine
For most of us our homes represent the biggest chunk of our personal wealth. It is our biggest chance to increase equity. That equity gives us options that we wouldn’t otherwise have, such as taking out a second mortgage to send the kids to college or help them with a down payment or take the money and run.
We live on an island where land is scarce; development rationed by the government and outside investment almost a constant.
If you take a snapshot of any moment in the real estate market, there’s always good news and bad news. When you look back, you see a cavalcade of bad news, or at least what appeared to be a bad news at the time. The bad news at the end of the World War II was there was no housing to buy. The remedy: Development all over Hawaii. Which turned into bad news, because there was a fear that Islands were being overdeveloped. The remedy: Limiting development. Which turned into bad news, because home prices soared. The remedy: Affordable housing. Which turned into bad news when the Japanese stopped buying and all housing got more affordable, meaning everybody’s property values started to stag.
In retrospect, of course, there was good news along with the bad. Hawai’i’s burgeoning real estate market enriched two generations of home owners. Even at the height of the Japanese boom, there must have been someone who went home and said, “Honey, break out the good Scotch. We just sold the house for a million five and we’re retiring in style.”
If you view your home as a long-term investment, it will always pay off. The long term history of Hawaiian real estate has shown that it’s better to start than not to start at all, because that’s how you build wealth.
by; John S.Rabi
Edited by - punamom on 07/25/2006 20:19:52
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John's advice is true practically everywhere. Up north, I bought lake property beginning in 1982. It always was much more expensive than woods property but it had the advantage of being limited. Now, many years later, I have friends, who after 20+ years want to move onto a lake. they had a very nice house that they sold. Their appreciation isn't what it would have been if it wre on water and they are finding lake property too expensive. John's advice, if I can paraphrase, and understand is buy what you can when you can and trust in the market.
Marj and I bought what we think is agood property in Puna and i am satisfied with the price. Will we make money? MAybe, maybe not. But I am no real esatate investor and I don't care. I will say that of all the properties I've bought , I've never lost money yet.
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Housing on the National scene...
“Instead of being a seller’s market,” he said, “it became a buyer’s market. And once the psychology changes, it could take a while to reverse. Buyers recognize there’s no need to rush out to buy a home.”
The latest housing data, released yesterday by the National Association of Realtors, made clear that a significant slowdown is under way. It showed that the sales pace for existing homes fell for a third straight month in June — the ninth monthly decline since hitting a record last June.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/business/26home.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Ajit
Edited by - adias on 07/26/2006 05:15:46
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Hawaii's real estate market is fascinating.
I would draw your attention to two land parcels currently on the market. This is data from the MLS listing:
181768 tax key 3-1-5-53-38 assessed value 74K
taxes $618 price 100K
173215 tax key 3-1-5-53-39 assessed value 24K
taxes $236 price 79K
These are both on the corner of Kaloli and 1st in HPP, across 1st from each other.
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LOL!! That will really add to their credibility..."who wants to throw their money at me?" LOL!
I thought this one was fun! LOL! MLS 181707 go to: http://www.hiinfo.com/Research/IDX/mlsHawaii/IndividualListing.asp?page=1&MLS=181707
Carrie
"The opportunities to reach into the lives of others in an inspiring way arise in countless ways every single day..." Dr. Wayne W. Dyer
http://www.hellophoenix.com/art
Edited by - carolann r on 07/26/2006 07:51:59
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It's very fun-looking to be sure, Buzz. Very colorful too. I don't know that I'd wanna clean 6,000 sq ft, but someone will!
Carrie
"The opportunities to reach into the lives of others in an inspiring way arise in countless ways every single day..." Dr. Wayne W. Dyer
http://www.hellophoenix.com/art
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The ad says "needs TLC." Hmmmmm . . . from what I saw when house hunting around here a few years back that phrase could mean anything from a little peeling paint to near-lethal termite infestation. Caveat emptor!
Aloha,
Jerry
Edited by - JerryCarr on 07/26/2006 09:31:08
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The educated look at a tree instead of the forest. The media "bubble scare" started two years ago on the Big Island. However, prices still solidly increased and the number of sales did not drop during the first year. Needless to say, the media got scared and started talking about an even bigger bubble. The number of sales started dropping in October of last year but the median house prices were still up compared to a year ago as recently as in May of this year!
The NAR represents the real estate industry and agents everywhere in the USA and they don't publish regional data.
They expect 50,000 people to move to Puna during the next 10 years. That's a fully developed HPP almost six times! One just need to look at the commercial activity on the East side. I already saw the same thing happening 10 years ago here in Kona.
There always will be negative people who miss the train and will tell the others who also missed the train that the train will crash. However, the train safely make it to the next stop before going further on.
I will not post anything anymore in regards to this subject. I bought four properties just last year and my Sister is closing on her third one next week. We believe in real estate more than we believe in corrupt CEOs of publicly traded companies.
quote:
Housing on the National scene...
“Instead of being a seller’s market,” he said, “it became a buyer’s market. And once the psychology changes, it could take a while to reverse. Buyers recognize there’s no need to rush out to buy a home.”
The latest housing data, released yesterday by the National Association of Realtors, made clear that a significant slowdown is under way. It showed that the sales pace for existing homes fell for a third straight month in June — the ninth monthly decline since hitting a record last June.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/business/26home.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Ajit
Edited by - adias on 07/26/2006 05:15:46
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185
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"There always will be negative people who miss the train and will tell the others who also missed the train that the train will crash. However, the train safely make it to the next stop before going further on."
Hear that? Get on the train before it's too late. This is just all more sales talk. Now he's saying the recent decline in prices was caused by the media scaring buyers with all this talk of a bubble. Sounds like what he just posted is fear mongering in reverse, "buy now or you'll be sorry later".
Seriously I do agree with the realestate people that in the long run realestate is a good investment. Buy and hold a piece of property for 10 years or more and you can't lose. But 2 to 5 years down the road is another story.
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