Okay you guys I will make a stab at this illustious subject!! Correct me if I am wrong, I am just going from memory here and lack of sleep!
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One thing to be sure on is history, it does not change but gives us clues on how the future can be. So you can depend upon it for being right at least the numbers that were crunched in regards to RE. History does not lie, nor does it change, but people do see things differently sometimes.
Historically the real estate sales have gone in cycles, (some say something like approxiametly 12 year) cycles of run ups in the prices and then adjustments or leveling off. Of recent history, the Japanese pushed the market up drastically in the 80's and one of the first times in Hawaiian history, the prices fell back down some after that huge increase. The prices started to build again in the late 90's
and go crazy in 2002 or a bit later and sustained that for awhile, now they seem to have adjusted and lowered with more houses on the market. At least lowered in Puna/ Hilo and Kau areas. The rest of the island I do not keep track of as well.
In John R's defense, he did name the subdivisions that have had extreme growth. I think he knows his business! But he is just a man, no bronze Adonis! But no one has a crystal ball and can tell what will become of the prices now. One thought is that Hawaii has historically always been a good investment. The variable being on the BI that there are still active volcanos and all island can have natural disasters, the most happening on Hawaii and Kauai it seems. So those island can be more variable that the othes. If you look at the past sales history on the county site you will see them going all over, up and down, sometimes folks taking huge losses. Who is to know what will happen? Indisputably Puna land is still a good buy compared to where I live in Tx. and many parts of the USA. One thing is it is a large resource on the BI, and it could go way back down to where it was in 2000 with lots in HPP for 12 grand again, It has before and even lower, then again it may not. It has happened in the past, read about it on the site at HPP or same goes for Discovery Harbour, see it at the county site. These are history/facts.
I don't know about the bill of goods about all the baby boomers flocking there, (John, that started with RF)it has too many drawbacks for lots of folks (Somthing like 50% leave in the first two yrs. after moving there) and medical care and being away from family are the biggest that I see among many others. If you cannot get medical help or see a Dr. what are you going to do? I know of folks who have moved there and cannot get coverage. I think we talked about why Docs aren't wanting to move there, because it is too costly for them. The infrastructure is not keeping up with the growth in Kona and the people are feeling it there for the last few years and complaining about it. What happens when you just cannot sustain the numbers coming in? You do not have the money or the goverment willing to keep up with change. What are you going to do? Fight over the resources, like food and who gets to be on the road? If the sale of the land directly N of HPP goes through for development of single family residences, it will be a zoo around there. Also one never knows about Oil and/or the Lava flows on the island, if those things change in a major way, things could take a drastic turn as they could everywhere with Oil becoming scarce. Lava being different of course, but the RE values would plummet where it affects that area or if the road(s) is cut off to it. There are no guarantees of what tommorrow may bring.
One thing we do know is, we can't always predict what is right for anyone else, let alone ourselves sometimes. There are just too many variables and ambiguities to know ahead of time.
We all have opinions formed over our lifetimes and experiences. Buying homes and property doesn't happen that often for most of us and some aren't even that old to have a long history like some of us on here
LOL so given many variables, we all have different perspectives and lets not forget hopes and dreams of owning or living in paradise before it is too late for us. Some perhaps have been working harder or smarter at it than others and are there, some still will come and some alas will not be able to for whatever reason, then there are those who find also that it is not their cup of tea for various reasons and have learned to enjoy other aspects of their lives. Some will move away and give up the dream for whatever reason, too many hurdles, family too far away, too hard to make a living with the costs of living in paradise. A paradise tax.
All of life is wonderful, so sit back and enjoy all that life has to offer you, slow down, smell the flowers everyday, look at the rainbows, listen to the birds sing. It happens wherever you are and it is a great life if only you make it so for yourself. I wish you all the best, whatever you choose to do in life.
Having another Great day in Paradise, Wherever that Maybe!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheLanai
Aloha,
Lucy
Having another Great day in Paradise, Wherever that Maybe!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheLanai
Edited by - Lucy on 07/27/2006 08:09:10
