Property value estimates

[mella l]

With live lava fountains on the south east side of the island would property assessments or valuations decrease?

mella l
Art and Science
bytheSEA

[MarkD]

Not a real estate expert, but speculate radically plummeting property values in zones 1 and 2 (in East Hawaii). A big Q is what will happen in zone 3, places like Hilo and the upper Puna subdivisions.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories..._lava.html

A pessimistic view is that all or parts of zone 3 (in East Hawaii) will be adversely affected as people recall the 1984 lava flow that threatened Hilo (it came within 4 miles of upper Hilo [story below]) and consider a Mauna Loa eruption more likely.

That might be offset by significant rent increases in properties throughout zone 3 because of the evacuations. This could act as a positive force on the value of zone 3 properties.

It can be expected that when the eruption ends and HVNP re-opens, tourism to the park will rapidly rebound; the eruption is giving HVNP further nationwide fame.

But if all or most of Puna's major ocean attractions are permanently lost (covered by lava)--Kapoho tidepools, Pohoiki, Ahalanui--that will not bode well for East Hawaii tourism. (Kalapana Beach is probably not at threat from the current eruption.)

- - - -

"Recalling 1984, when lava nearly reached Hilo"

Article excerpt:

"The last time Mauna Loa erupted was March 25, 1984.

The 22-day eruption of the world’s largest volcano sent lava from the mountain’s northeast rift zone toward Hilo and Kulani Correctional Facility, then known as Kulani Prison.

Frank Trusdell, a Hawaiian Volcano Observatory geologist considered an expert on Mauna Loa, was a graduate student on Oahu at that time and had worked summers at HVO. He came to the Big Island two days into the eruption at the behest of then-HVO chief Reggie Okamura.

“The flow came within four miles of the so-called city limits of Hilo,” Trusdell said Thursday. “At that time, most of the people that lived in Hilo and on the east side of the volcano, all they had to do was look up at Mauna Loa, and they could see the entire stream from the source to the distal end of the flows. At that time, it sort of seemed to be hovering above the community. Everyone seemed to be concerned, and rightly so.”

http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2015...ched-hilo/

[Midnight Rambler]

A pessimistic view is that all or parts of zone 3 (in East Hawaii) will be adversely affected as people recall the 1984 lava flow that threatened Hilo (it came within 4 miles of upper Hilo [story below]) and consider a Mauna Loa eruption more likely.

That might be offset by significant rent increases in properties throughout zone 3 because of the evacuations. This could act as a positive force on the value of zone 3 properties.

I've been wondering about this dichotomy as well. Even without any weird psychological effects of feeling like zone 3 is more problematic now, having a lot worse vog could be bad if the eruption goes on for a long time. On the other hand, 1500 people suddenly needing long-term homes, and many more requiring at least short term housing, puts quite a squeeze on supply.

[randomq]

I suspect some portion of the evacuees will lose their appetite for risk and find safer places to live...

[Chunkster]

The Puna population boom could easily go on hold or into reverse if things get worse and/or go on too long. Meanwhile, some speculator guy is building three new houses within a quarter mile of my place in HPP.

[terracore]

"would property assessments or valuations decrease?"

If the county assessments decrease, the tax rate will increase. Don't expect a smaller bill.

[VancouverIslander]

If assessments decrease for Puna, then other districts take a higher tax burden. In a few years, hopefully it won't be an issue.

Me ka ha`aha`a,
Mike

[kalakoa]

If the county assessments decrease, the tax rate will increase.

It's almost as if County makes up a valuation and a rate to arrive at a desired revenue target.

http://records.hawaiicounty.gov/Weblink/...Page1.aspx

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

would property assessments or valuations decrease?

mella -
I walked about 1/2 a mile in lower HPP this morning, and back, and here is what I saw:

2 homes under construction
1 home undergoing a complete interior remodel
1 home replacing their roof
1 large 2 room tent with a car parked next to it on Shipman property (couldn't tell if the occupants were living there, or fishing)

I have not seen any new "For Sale" signs since the start of the eruption, and have not seen any removed. Glancing at real estate listings on Hawaii Information Service and Craigslist I haven't noticed any drop in prices. I think we have a ways to go before we start noticing changes in property values and their associated assessments and appraisals.

I could also hear helicopters buzzing the entire time I walked, perhaps 45 minutes.

Portion of Hawaii’s drinking water that comes from underground wells : 9/10
Gallons of raw sewage that leak into the ground from Hawaii cesspools each day : 53,000,000 - Harper's Index

[MarkD]

The related question is what happens to real estate in lower Puna. Sorry to bring up a bad scenario, but if the lava breakout continues for a long time--(4-5 months, compared to 1984 Hilo flow, 22 days, and 1960 Kapoho event, some 36 days)--and covers a large area of coastline from Opihikao to Waa Waa, officials might:

1) Create a special designation zone for zone 1 and within 3-4 miles of zone 1 in East Hawaii that defines building as illegal or at-your-own-risk. No road maintenance and other services are provided.

2) Maintain roads through this no-build zone (Hwy 130) and allow habitation in the Kalapana area (zone 2). Kalapana is subject to lava flows but is significantly further from zone 1 than the Opihikao to Waa Waa area.

See lava zone map.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories..._lava.html

Layman's questions to geologists: What is the average life span of fissure systems along the lower rift? How long could a fissure last? Could the Leilani fissure system turn into a long running "volcanic cone" like Puu Oo? ("erupting continuously since January 3, 1983").

Wikipedia Puu Oo does not paste to here. Google: puu oo wikipedia