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2018 Hurricane Season
quote:
Originally posted by macuu222

One thing about Hurricane Lane I'm having a problem with and that's the Hilo and Kona forecasts for the next 48 hours. I've checked most of the weather forecast offices on-line and they all say that the wind speed in Kona will be equal to or "lower" than the wind speed in Hilo when Lane passes. How is that possible?


Must be a mistake. I'd go with this map. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=wind_probs_34_F120&stormid=EP142018
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quote:
Originally posted by glinda

interestingly.. if you look at the time lapse sequence here…

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=nep&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off&animtype=flash

it seems that Lane, since about dawn, is moving in a more westerly direction than the one NOAA has been projecting here..

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind&stormid=EP142018

Where in the last few posts (until the most recent) they kept putting the projected path due north or even a bit east of north the actual satellite data since about dawn hasn’t supported those projections.

And then there is the nullschool site..

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...14.05,2648

Which has supported that more westerly track.. but still has Lane jogging to the north northeast later this afternoon… almost as if she is going around.. not over.

I wonder if that is the “speed bump” effect? Or could she actually be doing thee ol' Hawaiian Half Step?

Toodeloo*

*I personally like the 05/07/77 version. God, did they nail it or what? Jerry was just.. well it’s beyond words, don’t you think?

Great info.

Speaking Truth to Lies / Facts to Ignorance
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hurricane technically mean wind, not rain.

Yes, that's true.
Lane was not designated a hurricane until it reached a speed of 75 mph.
Hurricane insurance will not cover damage to your house if the wind speed at your location was not over 75 mph.

However, the effects of a hurricane are far reaching. A good example is Hurricane Harvey in Houston last year. Wind speeds in Houston never approached anywhere near 75 mph, and yet every news article about the storm, FEMA response, Civil Defense, etc all refer to the 55 inches of rain that fell there as Hurricane Harvey.

“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” - President Donald J. Trump, 7/25/18
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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quote:
Originally posted by glinda

Where in the last few posts (until the most recent) they kept putting the projected path due north or even a bit east of north the actual satellite data since about dawn hasn’t supported those projections.

It has moved a bit east in the last couple hours, but not much. The northerly move has just begun, while a another jaunt to the east is also forecast. Still a possibility to make landfall on Maui, according to the models.

Edit: And still a possibility to make land fall on any island, for that matter. Here is the latest coordinate data. It went from 157.7 to 157.5 before wobbling back west. Forecasters are really nervous about calling this one. They believe that the interaction of Lane with our big volcanoes will start breaking it up and sending it westward.

Aug 23
20:10 GMT
17.2°
-157.7° 130 mph 949 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 23
21:00 GMT
17.3°
-157.5° 130 mph 949 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 23
22:10 GMT
17.4°
-157.8° 130 mph 949 mb
Hurricane
4
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Forecasters are really nervous about calling this one.


They believe that the interaction of Lane with our big volcanoes will start breaking it up and sending it westward.
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Mauna Mana
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Aug 23
20:10 GMT
17.2°
-157.7° 130 mph 949 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 23
21:00 GMT
17.3°
-157.5° 130 mph 949 mb
Hurricane
4
Durian Fiend post:
Aug 23
22:10 GMT
17.4°
-157.8° 130 mph 949 mb
-----------------------------------
Thanks for the post!
I love this site...... ( Lane appears to be moving west....a little further away from the Kona coast. )
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxlo...wv+/48h/3h
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Back to being in a pea soup.

The Windy app, when set to "rain & thunder" mode is showing those half avocado looking thingies again. We're currently in a large one. 3 more coming behind that.
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https://www.windy.com/?rain,18.407,-156.929,6


Here's that cool app. windty

You can see the half avocados for yourself.

I was using my phone for it but loaded here on my pc to share.
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Rainfall totals so far 3-Hr, 6-Hr, 12-Hr, 24-Hr

Hakalau - 2.42 / 6.45 / 10.97 / 18.41
Pahoa - 0.42 / 0.46 / 2.38 / 6.81
Hilo - 0.37 / 0.55 / 4.21 / 12.42
Waikea - 1.19 / 1.69 / 6.12 / 18.22
Glenwood - 0.82 / 1.41 / 3.37 / 9.06
Saddle Quarry - 1.97 / 3.44 / 7.86 / 16.32
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/RRAHFO

“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” - President Donald J. Trump, 7/25/18
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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