2018 Hurricane Season

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by ElysianWort


If were any storms in the past with a similar track I don't recall.

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You're correct, it's an unprecedented path for a hurricane to approach Hawaii from.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Olivia Wind Speed Possibility On Reaching Big Island:

Arrival time east coast Big Island - before 8 AM Tuesday, Sept 11
Speed - 39+ mph
Probability - 30%
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/toaep.php

The latest models put Olivia’s forecast track slightly north again, between Hawaii Island & Maui

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018

[glinda]

There's a very interesting story told when looking through the 3 to 4 day out forecast for Olivia on the nullschool.net site..

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...18.59,3000

Using their advanced tools (in the popup that opens when you hit the Earth button) and moving 3 days forward and then stepping through the next day 3 hours at a time is an eye opener. If that track were to hold true two things will happen. The storm will devour Puna and the storm's interaction with the island will impact it's structure substantially.

[knieft]

The apps are not on the same page. Ventusky has it brushing south. Windy has it going well north. Dark Sky has it hitting lower Puna and turning north right over land to Hamakua.

Every model shows plenty rain...

Cheers,
Kirt

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Yes, the storm is still so far east, that the models disperse every which way by the time their projected paths reach the islands. Perhaps tomorrow we’ll see greater agreement between forecasts. For now:

https://www.cyclocane.com/olivia-spaghetti-models/

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018

[Chunkster]

You can easily scare yourself by looking at any number of models. At this point the "consensus" track and official forecast shows Olivia just brushing the south shore of Maui. Weather Underground has a map showing five of the six models they consider most accurate. They do not, however, show the European Model which is the one they consider most accurate due to its owners restrictions on publication. The NOAA has said in a recent published discussion release on Olivia that the European Model shows her hitting Oahu. Here is the link to the models map followed by a link to WU's evaluation of those models:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/c...?map=model

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

It's way too early to know what this thing is going to do, but I know what I'm doing. I'm topping off my drinking water supply and filling the reserve tanks for the generator. If it really looks grim, I will secure the loose objects and put the plywood on the picture windows. May even cut down a tree that I don't really like anyway.

[TomK]

Completely agree, Chunkster. The "cone of uncertainty" is just that, a cone that shows the possible area the storm's center will affect. There's also a very small possibility that the center will move outside that cone. I don't know what level of certainty NOAA use, 95 or 99% or even stricter, but the cone is based on a statistical error analysis. You can draw a line through the middle of the cone, but that does not mean that's where the storm will go. It's also why the cone is so much narrower near the storm as the uncertainty of where the storm goes is greater over time.

As for the disagreement between apps, I guess it comes to which models they use. I tend to go more with what the meteorologists publish than what an app says. It would be good to know if the various apps actually tell you what models they are using.

[EightFingers]

Tom, I think it’s one standard deviation.

[TomK]

8F, thanks. Do you have a reference for that?

[Carey]

NOAA about the cone
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

& Forecast Uncertainty description:The CPHC official 3/5 day forecast cone of uncertainty is an experimental product...:

www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/gis/EP132015_048adv_CONE.kmz