2018 Hurricane Season

[Guest]

Yes glinda..

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

terracore,
I found this comment near the end of your link:

In particular, the mountainous terrain of
Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

The mountains on Big Island, apparently can increase hurricane and tropical storm force winds, as well as the amount of rainfall the storm might bring when compared to non-mountainous areas.

Hurricane Olivia
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For maximum strength winds, and maximum rainfall!

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018

[ElysianWort]

In particular, the mountainous terrain of
Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

I guess if the magic mountains don't keep the hurricane away, if it gets close enough the winds can be greater near the mountain.

http://scottystrachan.com/wp/?p=263

https://mountaintrails.ie/effect-wind-mountains/

"As the moving air is pushed over a mountain range it is squeezed between the mountains and the top of the troposphere, causing the wind to speed up. It is nearly always windier, therefore, on mountain tops than in adjacent valleys. The wind is forced over ridges and through saddles, increasing in speed, and making these places more hazardous in stormy weather."

[knieft]

quote:

---

Originally posted by TomK

As for the disagreement between apps, I guess it comes to which models they use. I tend to go more with what the meteorologists publish than what an app says. It would be good to know if the various apps actually tell you what models they are using.

---

Yes, of course, it comes from the different models they use. I suspect those in the know know what the exact models the various apps use.

It doesn’t confuse me that different apps have difererent forecasts...that’s what I like about them. Kinda like I have three (Dark Sky, Ventusky, Windy) of the better (I assume) strands of the spaghetti map in much greater detail. Indeed, one can go to one of the apps and look for a match to their particular forecast as one of the strands on the spaghetti map...if one cares to do that.

Meteorologists publish their take on what the models predict, no? Taking an average of the models(?) and just playing up the uncertainty in general.

I suspect there is a forum somewhere where folks bet on the different models and how they pan out. I would love to see the data on how the models actually fare, where some are better at particular conditions, others better at other conditions. Likely there is an academic internet place where the models themselves are tracked, so to speak.

And very likely the mathematicians/coders associated with each model are constantly modifying the algorithms, especially if they bomb a couple few predictions.

The Euro model mentioned appears proprietary...? Maybe they all are, I don’t know.

But the euro model should get an app out!

Edit: Just read chunksters link. Much better than my suspicions:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

Cheers,
Kirt

[leilanidude]

I suspect there is a forum somewhere where folks bet on the different models and how they pan out.
---------
Makes me think of the Seinfeld episode where Kramer is betting on flight arrivals at an airport...

[alaskyn66]

Windy by default uses ECMWF model by default but can be switched by the user to the GFS model or for a closer look the NAM model. If you go the the Windy website on a laptop of Desktop it is obvious on the bottom right side. On the mobile app its a little harder to find.. But still available to change.

You can 'check' the accuracy of windy by simply changing models and watching the storm approach with each one, The differences are Where the
cone of probability on the NWS page comes from. It should match with the different model runs.

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/28068/web

[Carey]

OMG many pages later & EW finally AGREES with me about maountain passes.... What will become of us???
"Carey Posted - 08/22/2018 : 12:22:29
glinda... not naive... there are many studies of cyclonic storms in Central America, Pacific Islands & Carib that back up that mountains do not stop a cyclonic storm, esp the more powerful ones... more like a speed bump, can take some of the force out... but if you are dealing with a storm with Lanes` power... that still equals a potentially damaging storm... & the mountains do not provide a safety net to plan on no effects of the storm, as some would like to believe... they can diminish a storm, yes, but not stop a storm

& those mountain passes, like Waimea, can create a very dangerous area of storm funneling..

ETA: & the frictional forces of the land added to the water vapor taken out by the elevational change does drain storms of their power, but Lane is riding in 29degC waters, that are right nice for fueling a cyclonic storm & if it does ride the edges of our island, the water vapor decrease & friction will not be enough stop the storm... just weaken it....& there is the potential of stalling & all the other tricks of the trade that happen with wall reformations..
Edited by - Carey on 08/22/2018 12:40:32"

quote:

---

Originally posted by ElysianWort

In particular, the mountainous terrain of
Hawaii can produce localized areas of strongly enhanced winds and
rainfall, even well away from the tropical cyclone center.

I guess if the magic mountains don't keep the hurricane away, if it gets close enough the winds can be greater near the mountain.

http://scottystrachan.com/wp/?p=263

https://mountaintrails.ie/effect-wind-mountains/

"As the moving air is pushed over a mountain range it is squeezed between the mountains and the top of the troposphere, causing the wind to speed up. It is nearly always windier, therefore, on mountain tops than in adjacent valleys. The wind is forced over ridges and through saddles, increasing in speed, and making these places more hazardous in stormy weather."

---

[knieft]

quote:

---

Originally posted by alaskyn66

Windy by default uses ECMWF model by default but can be switched <snip>

---

Perfect!

Wondering how Windy can use the ECMWF model and others can’t? And Windy app is free...?

Thanks for humoring me and my ignorance, a66!

Cheers,
Kirt

[kalianna]

Re wind speed, the storm track culled from the spaghetti models shows winds under 35mph when the storm arrives. I'm wondering where people are coming up with the 65+ mph forecast.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

I'm wondering where people are coming up with the 65+ mph forecast.

The Chunkster Gold Standard ECMWF Model on Weather Underground. It's a little tricky to find on their website, but the 65 mph sustained wind was at the time of Olivia's projected arrival at the tip of North Kohala. If I have time later I'll type instructions on how to find it, but Aaron Rodgers is back in the game so I'm outta here for now...

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018