2018 Hurricane Season

[birdmove]

I've got one too. Son Paul that is.



Jon in Keaau/HPP

[dan d]

Hey Bird,we shood get them 2 get them together if the storm comes thi s way ,kids are good at puttin hexes on storms lol
Aloha

Dan D
HPP

[Guest]

Lol Dan And Bird .. two positives create a negative diba? But do not tell Tomk. His,aberrant and bizarre denial of anything sans evidence will surely garner you both a rebuke.


When pam tells u she loves you do u ask for scientific proof?

What a oafish churl u are.

[Mimosa]

We think Puna from Kea'au south will be breezy and sunny with some showers - all the while Maui will get the enema called Olivia - Lanes brawny sister .

[randomq]

Just outside to water a tree, and the stars are shining. Looks like Olivia is going further north every time I check.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by ironyak


I appreciate this, but it still doesn't explain how the forecast track for the storm's center is decided for each update. Best single model for recent behavior, or some sort of average (and if so, how to choose what is averaged, and with what weighting)? Arcane minutiae likely given the scope of the error in forecasting, but still intriguing.

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From the 5AM discussion:
"The official forecast is now near the center of the guidance envelope, and isclose to the multi-model consensus TVCE and GFEX. The along-trackdifferences between the GFS and ECMWF were reduced with the arrivalof the 06Z GFS, adding confidence to the short term forecast track,which indicates a slightly faster speed of motion than the previous forecast."

The current projected path hasn't changed in the past 12 hours, though the storm strength has been downgraded.

As for the mountains effects on tropical storms, one could argue from an unscientific perspective that they're a magnet for them, given that Lane veered from its track to approach us and Olivia is forecast to do the same.

The people studying these things for a living say that the mountains can help break up the storms when they strike, but the major players in their approaches and strengths are atmospheric ridges/troughs plus wind shear.

[birdmove]

quote:

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Originally posted by dan d

Hey Bird,we shood get them 2 get them together if the storm comes thi s way ,kids are good at puttin hexes on storms lol
Aloha

Dan D
HPP

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My Paul lives in Seattle, and teaches in school district a little north of there. He's just 33 years old in August. He comes to visit once or twice a year.

Jon in Keaau/HPP

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

it will be interesting to see if Haleakala has a similar disruptive effect on the systems symmetry as it interacts with the island
...
Well Olivia is following the longtime trend of Hurricanes going around our Big island (except Iselle)


Olivia has weakened well offshore from any on the islands, far from the effects of any Hawaiian mountains. At the moment, rather than avoiding a mountain, it's headed straight for Haleakala on Maui as a tropical storm, with little symmetry. So what to make of Olivia's weakening, it's projected path, and the mountains? Nothing I suppose, or not much anyway.

Over in the Atlantic Ocean they have a hurricane brewing as well, and they have the Pat Robertson effect protecting them. I only mention this because it sounds eerily similar to what's often said about Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, and Haleakala, which evokes faith, and belief systems of the past (which in the context of their times, were quite reasonable back in their day). Pat Robertson said today:

“In the name of Jesus, you Hurricane Florence, we speak to you in the name of Jesus, and we command the storm to cease its forward motion and go harmlessly into the Atlantic. Go up north away from land and veer off in the name of Jesus. We declare in the name of the lord that you shall go no farther, you shall do no damage in this area.”

He claims his prayer always works:

“It’s almost hilarious to see them try,” he said. “They try to get in and they can’t, and then they go north and they turn around, try to come back in. They can’t do it.”


Time will tell. Bear in mind the source. If applicable find the original source, and whether it applies when out of context.

[mella l]

Thanks Carey this is so fascinating and I appreciate you sharing it.

quote:

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Originally posted by Carey

This is the explanation on each of the NOAA hurricane path (with uncertainty) predictions:

" Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."

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mella l
Art and Science
bytheSEA

[Tink]

I'm guessing she's going to go over Molokai, nothing in the way.

Community begins with Aloha