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quote:
Originally posted by Obie
quote:
Originally posted by Carey
http://mauinow.com/maui-videos/does-the-...954759978/
Thanks Carey !
Yes, thank you Carey. I think that Malika Dudley says it all. Perfectly.
I especially like his description of how a direct hit to the Big Island tears up a system. He specifically, clearly, says this at 3:20 in that video at the link you provide. Which is all I have been saying.. all along.
And btw.. count me as one that thinks shear has pretty much put paid to Olivia before she got here. A look at the satellite sequence of vapor for today..
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=8km&chnl=wv&domain=nep&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeswest&overlay=off&animtype=flash
Suggests she's had a very hard time of it already. Though I suspect as she goes through the islands the mountains to either side should ween off a bunch of energy as well.
My bigger question is whether the island's disruptive influence sets in motion weaknesses that can propagate towards the system's demise. I think we saw that with Lane, once he hit us he never regained his symmetry. And yes I know about all the other factors.. just advocating for the island's inclusion in the discussion. Though now, with Olivia, I suspect she's already too weakened, and has been too battered by other forces, to draw the same conclusions. Though it will be interesting to see how the islands effect what's left of her as she passes.
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a direct hit to the Big Island tears up a system. He specifically, clearly, says this at 3:20 in that video
That doesn’t sound much like the previously described wall that protects Big Island, or the shield which causes storms to avoid the Big Island and go around us. In the context of the video, where the question was whether the Big Island protects the other islands, it sounds more like we get hit hard, and in the process the storm may weaken when it’s over land, and moves around the mountains, and it’s source of energy, warm water, is cut off. The storm would still make landfall here, at full force, only to weaken as it passed over the island. We would take one for the rest of the team, Maui, Oahu, and Kauai. In the aftermath, pour one out for Big Island.
Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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"But, for us more rooted in the sciences"
... says the photographer to the astronomer. Sounds like a joke!
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It was getting very windy this afternoon in HPP with some impressive waves at the coast (and a rescue helicopter, I hope that was a false alarm) but everything seems a lot calmer now. Is it over?
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Probably not. Convection just east of the storm has redeveloped, which is normal during the night, and there's plenty of moisture behind the storm that will likely remain on the windward side of the island for a while. Mauna Kea is already seeing the inversion layer disappearing although winds are low up there at the moment - that's likely due to the Olivia having its top ripped off and leaving us with a low-level wind system.
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"But, ok, what if it is modeled.. ie somebody who knows more than most actually programmed for it? Yes? No? And if so, is there a real data verses modeled data line.. past to future.. in that site's data set? Or by chance is this site now like the NYTimes is to Trump.. he don't like it so its fake? Is the null school site fake Tom?
Oh I love picking on that guy. Now he can spend the evening telling you all how bad I am... the uneducated unwashed masses rising up.. or whatevers.."
Sometimes I feel as though I'm debating flat-earthers.
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I mean, everything is flat (including the Earth) according to the holographic projection theory...
Cyclocane.com describes Olivia as having slowed down and "lurking" east of Maui tonight. Hopefully they do not get dumped on like we did with Lane!
Looks like Puna is in a low probability area for high winds at least:
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/wp-con...-winds.jpg
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Hurricane>>>Tropical Storm Olivia Wednesday Wrap Up
While Maui is battening down the hatches in Lahaina and Kaanapali Beach today (I spoke with one hotel manager who said they're treating the storm seriously, moving guests off of the first floor, and boarding up windows) Big Island should be in the clear.
As we catch our breath I thought it might be a good time to summarize some of what occurred over the course of a rather unpredictable storm. Olivia changed projected paths numerous times, it sped up, slowed it's forward momentum, and failed to lose strength as quickly as forecast.
Several Punaweb members provided insightful details about the conditions which caused these abrupt changes as they occurred:
TomK - great explanation and links about wind shear north and east of Hawaii, and dry atmospheric conditions
Carey - also offered good commentary on wind shear, water vapor, and reminding us how important it was to WATCH THE STORM. At no point did Olivia follow the forecast track. Watching it's movements, it could have easily reached Puna given a slightly different set of weather conditions. I especially found your post about Olivia entering warmer water (which would intensify the storm), while wind shear from the northwest moved in (diminishing it's strength), instructive and informative about the difficulties forecasters experience while trying to generate their models for us.
Chunkster - thanks for sharing your experience, background info, and resources (links) with us for The Chunkster Gold Standard ECMWF Model early on when Olivia was still far east of the islands. I followed the moderately concealed ECMWF forecast track on Wunderground daily throughout this past week. It's a good one.
Since the storm made frequent movements over the past 3 or 4 days, it would appear to me that the factors which caused it to move and change were also fluctuating. For instance, low pressure systems, moving high pressure systems, sweeping wind shear, and irregular patches of variable water temperature along the path of the storm all seemed to account for rapid changes, and the subsequent difficulty in providing reliable forecast projections.
On the other hand, Mauna Kea, Mauna, Loa, and Haleakala all remained in the same place throughout the storm, so I'm not sure how several immovable objects might have affected Olivia's variable swings and tilts and pivots, especially while the storm was still far from the islands. If anyone would like to offer their explanation, please do.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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quote:
Originally posted by TomK
"But, ok, what if it is modeled.. ie somebody who knows more than most actually programmed for it? Yes? No? And if so, is there a real data verses modeled data line.. past to future.. in that site's data set? Or by chance is this site now like the NYTimes is to Trump.. he don't like it so its fake? Is the null school site fake Tom?
Oh I love picking on that guy. Now he can spend the evening telling you all how bad I am... the uneducated unwashed masses rising up.. or whatevers.."
Sometimes I feel as though I'm debating flat-earthers.
So why do you continue to take the bait?
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So it's okay for someone to pretend he's a scientist and tell people that hurricanes can't touch us because we have mountains?
That's worse than a flat-earther.
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