2018 Hurricane Season

[Chunkster]

@TomK: "Sometimes I feel as though I'm debating flat-earthers."
This is Puna. You very well might be.

@HOTPE: No problem on the hurricane modeling. Now if I could just get kalakoa to start posting again . . .

[glinda]

I am still enjoying the nullschool.net data.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi...17.44,3000

At this point, if it is anywhere near correct, the bottom portion of the storm has been severely busted up by the islands and is trying to reform southwest of the Big Island. While what's left of the top half is stuck northeast of Maui, closer to where NOAA puts the center. Though they established a point different from either of them for that.

As to that "busted up by the islands" stuff. Did you note last night's discussion in which the reporting meteorologist said..

"Erratic motion is likely to continue overnight as Olivia encounters terrain, but a general west-southwest motion is expected, with an increase in forward speed. If Olivia's LLCC (low level circulation center) survives the passage near the island terrain, the center is expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest through 48 hours.

I think looking at the dynamic nature of what's going on overall, especially with all the wild stuff happening as the storm system interacts with the island, is way better than some conclusion based on pin pricks on a map representing the center alone. Does anyone know of other models that allow for this much interaction?

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

As to that "busted up by the islands" stuff.

From Hawaii News Now:
Olivia is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall on Maui in modern history, National Weather Service forecasters said.
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38969...aui-county

Senior members of the Trump Administration described Trump's mood Wednesday as "volcanic." Wed, Sept 6, 2018

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

---

Originally posted by HereOnThePrimalEdge

At no point did Olivia follow the forecast track.

---

Actually it was followed quite well. 5 days prior to landfall on Maui it was expected to make...landfall on Maui.

Sure, the forecast path was adjusted as the storm danced around a bit, but in the end the earliest prediction turned out to be accurate.

[alaskyn66]

Might be hard to imagine for some, But if you look at the size of some of the low pressure systems floating across the Northern Pacific at times(Sometimes seemingly a thousand miles wide). As the oceans heat up and those thousand mile wide Low pressure systems build into hurricanes.... Might be like living on Jupiter.

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/28068/web

[glinda]

In today's 5pm discussion NOAA's metrologist starts out with...

Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear of about 35 kt and earlier interaction with the terrain of Maui County are weakening Olivia.

Wow, now we know.. Maui got Mana too!


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/arc...1809130238

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Wow, now we know.. Maui got Mana too!

Yes!
I used to shop there all the time. Great local produce section.
http://manafoodsmaui.com


earlier interaction with the terrain of Maui County

Olivia made landfall on the north coast of West Maui, a good distance from Haleakala. The storm then tracked toward Lahaina-Kaanapali, skirting the peaks of the West Maui Mountains the highest of which is 5700 feet high. All hurricanes lose strength over any area of land, even if the land is only 10 feet above sea level, because a storm gets its strength from warm water. Land weakens a hurricane or tropical storm.

“It's tremendously big and tremendously wet, tremendous amounts of water.” President Donald J. Trump describing an active hurricane on Tue, Sept 11, 2018

[birdmove]

I've seen some videos of flooding on Maui. looks pretty bad. Like here a few weeks back.

Jon in Keaau/HPP

[TomK]

Hopefully, some lessons will be learned. We now have three recent examples of tropical storms hitting the islands: Iselle, Darby, and Olivia. The first two hit the Big Island, crossed it, and remained tropical storms as they re-entered ocean waters on the west side of the island causing damage on other islands. Olivia hit Maui and remained a tropical storm as it passed over the west side of the island and also caused damage on other islands.

Just imagine if one of them had hit the islands as a powerful hurricane.

HOTPE - I suspect the erratic movements of Olivia close to the islands was due to the system becoming a low-level cyclone as vertical shear removed its top. Its movement became dominated by the trades rather than the usual mix of upper and lower-level winds, so there was a little bit of a battle going on between those two components until the trades took over completely.

[knieft]

glinda...just don’t.

Cheers,
Kirt