Decline in Real Estate

[Punamom]

Kiyosaki did not get out of RE he SOLD HIGH (to idiots)and will buy low like any good investor.

People and their EMOTIONS control the market for the most part and if they believe the analysts good or bad predictions thats the way it will go.
Geezz all you have to do is ask the majority why they do or don't want to buy.They will tell you because everyone is/or is not doing it or analysts say the market is turning.Look at interest rates thats what susposedly fueled the market.But they really are not much different than they were last year so wheres the land rush now? Whats the reason for the slowdown?
Before they said buy now they don't.
Whats your explaination Bystander?

[bystander]

Simple econ 101, the market is controlled by supply and demand. There is greater supply and less demand today compared to last year so prices are going down. The speculators have swamped the market with their spec houses and now they will reap their bitter harvest when they can't sell them for a profit.

While it is true that emotions and sentiment can affect demand, this is only in the short term. Interest rates also affect demand. The higher the rate the less demand there will be. The analysts which you are so critical of are just doing their jobs by providing information to prospective buyers. They don't control the market.

If what you say is true, that the market is controlled purely by emotion and hype, then the RE collapse will be incredibly huge and it will surely happen because the majority of analysts say it will. Mind you, I'm not saying that it will. I'm just expanding upon your reasoning of "self fulfulling prophesies".

To conteract this bubble all we would have to do is get all the analysts and reporters to publish nothing but good news and opinions. Actually this may work for a short time but when the sh*t hits the fan watch out! The collapse will be even bigger. Wallstreet analysts and reports have got into big trouble for doing just that.

Rabi,
I applogize for getting personal. It's just that you epitomize the cheerleading realestate bull. I congratulate you on 14 years of success but think you will have some tough times ahead. Laugh now but you may not be so jolly in a few years.

[G. Leis]

Robert T. Kiyosaki. Now there's a real guru for ya.

Like most self-described experts he's long on generalizations, short on specifics, primarily interested in personal promotion, and makes most of his jack hawking books and seminar tickets. Guys like him remind me of sports gambling touts selling their 'picks-of-the-week'. My question to them is always this: "If you know so much & the money's so easy, why do you need my credit card number?"

I wouldn't go so far as to call him a complete fake . . . well actually I would but that's just my opinion LOL . . . but I did enjoy seeing him punk'd on 20/20 not too long ago. [/rant]

aloha,
Gene

_______________________

So what's the speed of dark?

[bystander]

Here's an interesting quote I found:

"...a large percentage of respondents to the ThinkGlink.com survey (44.7%) indicated that people shouldn't talk about a real estate bubble because the more they talk about it, the more likely there will be panic selling that will lower property values. The respondents are concerned that simply discussing the real estate bubble might create a self-fulfilling prophecy."

So we if just stop talking about it, it will go away. LOL!

[Keith]

there are always good times to buy the trick is to make sure that the price you buy at discounts the future down turns the market will take. For me I am looking to buy from one of the folks that bought for the short term and is feels it's time to dump a quality lot at any price. Kind of like poker but a little more interesting.

Keith

Keith

[Kelena]

My observation is inexpert but is based on --oh, shall we say-- recent experience. I may not be correct, but this is what I have seen. My experience is that GOOD properties are still going at a pretty quick clip. There is a generalized slowdown in the market. Market time has increased, but good properties (location, amenities, etc) get snapped up.

They say location, location, location. The mega-location here, Hawaii, is incredible -- a one of a kind place in the world. There are locations within Hawaii that are less desireable, but overall the prognosis is pretty good. That is why I am trying to get there!

Of course, mega-events could change things. China could invade Taiwan, and then, when we complain, call in all of the debts we owe them. The price of travel could skyrocket. Who knows.

Anyway, helping me sort this out have been several very wise people: John Dirgo, John Rabi, Punamom, and many others who have e-mailed me privately.

The very essence of a professional is that they will try to give you an objective take on the situation. Ultimately, it is opinion. No one has a crystal ball. That is the best you can ask of such people. It is unfair to presume some sort of bias, simply because a person is in a given profession, and to assume they simply want to feather their nest. I don't see that happening here.

The professionals on this forum are quite credible and I value their advice greatly.

Indeed, part of what is pulling me toward Puna is the quality of people contributing to this forum. Relative affordability is the first consideration, but the people of Puna (and who hold an interest there), strike me as an intellectually attractive group.

That adds value to Puna real estate, too.

[John S. Rabi]

"Rabi,
I applogize for getting personal. It's just that you epitomize the cheerleading realestate bull. I congratulate you on 14 years of success but think you will have some tough times ahead. Laugh now but you may not be so jolly in a few years."

Apparently, you don't remember the "bad" real estate market between 1991 and 1997. I do, I was there, but it wasn't really that bad. Why? Because what separetes good companies from the bad ones is that the good ones thrive in bad market too. It's always a good time to buy real estate as long as you buy the right property.

I am so stupid, I promised it to JD I will not be sucked into this debate again and still here I am posting. Rob, would you just please shot me next time I post in this thread?

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185

Edited by - John S. Rabi on 09/11/2006 15:21:59

Edited by - John S. Rabi on 09/11/2006 16:41:34

[jdirgo]

Personally, I never offer "advice". I provide information and let the buyer or seller make up their own mind. If I think something is fairly priced for its location and amenities, I show them the recent sales and other information that I used to determine that. A good Realtor is NOT like those stockbrokers that you hear of that call their clients with the "next hot stock".

Every client makes their own decision as to the value a property has to them. Let's all not forget, that especially in the case of a home, a lot of the decision is emotional as well. And that's true for both buyers and sellers.

John Dirgo, RA, ABR, e-PRO
Island Trust Properties, LLC
808-987-9243 cell

[Kelena]

I don't see a conflict of interest. When you represent someone as a professional, you put their interests, wishes and desires first and simply guide them to a desired result, while advising them of the parameters. This is true for architects, lawyers and real estate agents. When you do that, you avoid conflicts. If you don't, you are not a professional.

There are nothing but professional real estate agents contributing to this site. In some sense, of course, their participation here is a subtle and modern form of marketing. That, too, is a good thing, as it brings willing buyers and sellers together with professionals who can assist them.

I am a layman at real estate, although I follow it closely. But I have to agree with Mr. Rabi who is really just echoing what Scarlett O'Hara says at the end of Gone with the Wind (actually Mr. O'Hara speaking to Scarlett): "Land, it's the only thing that matters Katie Scarlett!".

[oink]

Quote
Personally, I never offer "advice". I provide information and let the buyer or seller make up their own mind. If I think something is fairly priced for its location and amenities, I show them the recent sales and other information that I used to determine that. A good Realtor is NOT like those stockbrokers that you hear of that call their clients with the "next hot stock".
End Quote

Isn't Hawaii still a sub-agency state and not a transaction broker state? As a sub-agent of the seller aren't you obligated to "sell" his property? And while being fair and honest to all parties isn't it your obligation as their sub-agent to try to convince the buyer to purchace the seller's property?

Stir, stir!!

S. FL Islander to be