Decline in Real Estate

[tada]

'sup brah, gotta read the last 4 paragraphs under "Buffett bless the the USG." I think cramer's trying to go "contrarian."

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Servic...threadview

Still trying to figure what all this "subagency" talk is all about. I always say "follow the money." If you don't do that it doesn't make sense to me.

Others want to make friends- I just want to make money.
James Cramer

[tada]

Sorry the last link didn't work- not that important.

Didn't the last recession coincide with the demise of sugar cane? I thought cane was suppose to be making a comeback because of ethanol. Maybe we can make so much ethanol we can distill ethanol with ethanol???

Others want to make friends- I just want to make money.
James Cramer

[Jared I]

And the circus train keeps rolling!!!

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p...40317/1071

Jared

[Kapohocat]

Two things come to mind...

1) If i was going to court - I wouldnt have the prosecutor represent me AND the SOH...
Therefore I always suggest that you have a different agent...even if it looks like everythign will be simple. I have recommended friends to use Jdirgo even after they found their property and said "oh the seller's agent can handle it"... And who's interest are they repping? (by the way, John, she did have some issues that you could have made smoother but whatever!!)

2) We were just discussing the "boom/bust"... I, like aaron, have seen it come and go and come again here.... And it will affect everything. I remember the mass exodus and unemployment after the demise of sugar cane, and the decline in construction caused when Japanese /Gulf war started and money was pulled out of Hawaii.

What I observe is the "leading edge" of the boomers seem to decide the direction of the cycle... by having older parents that have left them inheritances that are worth many 100,000's of $$$ and being young enough to not worry as much about our health care here or too old to need to worry about kid's schools...

So kinda like when they decided the Summer of Love was cool... now they have decided the real estate market is crashing...

(And if any of you are in the leading edge boomer category I apoligize now! And this is just MHO - I have no rational basis for the decline.)

-Cat

Catherine Dumond
Blue Water Project Management
808 217-7578
http://bluewaterpm.125mb.com/index.html
"We help make building your dream home a reality"

[JerryCarr]

Call me naive, but I still think the BI real estate market is in a correction and not a crash. The simple fact that this remains the most affordable place in Hawaii will shift a lot of the remaining people (boomers and otherwise) interested in moving to Hawaii this way. The speculative builders have already left the market, according to a realtor friend, so it may not be all that long before demand catches up with supply. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

Aloha,
Jerry

[Jared I]

I don't think the speculators have left the market. Maybe the speculative buyers have left the market but the sellers haven't. The are a lot of empty houses in Puna looking for a buyer, these house have carrying cost (mortgage, insurance, taxes). Alot of people thought they would be able to cash in by building a spec home and turning a good profit, so they built with an ARM, IO or HELOC or refinanced their current home. Well these investments will turn into alligators, taking a bite out of their owners a piece at a time over months and years. Eventually the seller will decide to rent the home and they'll want to rent to cover PITI but that will be too high as other to try the same thing and as a drop in rents occurs the problem gets bigger. Then someone will take a loss sell their home and home values go down.

At the same time the economy will be struggling, people will stop using their homes as ATMs. Construction will take layoffs (alot of empty homes were built and owned by people in the trades), feeder businesses and services will take a hit. Soon people will be sending jingle mail (house keys) to the banks but new regs won't let that happen. If you are luck enough to give your home to the bank they will 1099 you for the lost and probably sue get garnishments and if you refi-ed or heloc your home they could apply for recourse and take that too. Oh yeah miss a payment and all you credit rates could be maxed, imagine Helco/water/cable asking for a bond up front, credit cards going to 22% and fico to zero so you cant get more cards.

All this time home values will be going down, national and local economies tanking. The boomers can't save us cause may don't have the funds (google it the average person goin into retirement has less than $50K in savings or retirement accounts). And boomers wont be moving here, most boomers that move to warmer places (ie Miami) return to their place of origin or move closer to family within 5 years.

This what I see as I look into my bowling ball.

Its a crazy world they oughta sell tickets.

Jared I

[Andrew]

Hey Jared:

You're a real ray of sunshine today aren't you. Why don't you go mix a nice cocktail and go sit down with your feet up for a while. You'll feel better.

LOL
Andrew

[Aaron S]

Jared,
It seems your crystal ball is extremely
heartless. Real people with families will
be severely affected if there is housing
crash. It won't just be with construction
or Real Estate mind you. The whole economy
will get shafted. It seems these "analysts"
and "doomsayers" forget that fact.

[haoleboy]

Jared- What does your bowling ball say about the National League West?
My whiffleball is teling me that the Padres will beat the Dodgers only to lose instantly in the playoffs.

Aloha
Richwhiteboy

"Lord, help me. I'm just not that bright."- Homer Simpson

[Rob L]

Jared, it doesn't matter that the "average" boomer hasn't saved, there are so many of us, that even a small minority are enough to keep parts of the economy moving. Not sure they will all come to Puna, but it won't take that many to keep the bottom from completely falling out.

Aloha,
Rob L