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Decline in Real Estate
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10-05-2006, 04:10 AM
Oh the humanity:
http://starbulletin.com/2006/10/05/busin...ory03.html http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p...60340/1071 http://washington.bizjournals.com/pacifi...ily19.html
10-05-2006, 05:16 AM
Plummeting?! "Median home prices went up on Maui and the Big Island, by 12.8 percent and 0.6 percent respectively, according to the latest data from the Realtors Association of Maui and the Hawaii Information Service." (They went up on Oahu too, according to the yesterday's issue of the WHT.)
Aloha, John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB http://www.JohnRabi.com Typically Tropical Properties 75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101 Kailua-Kona, HI 96740 (808)327-3185
10-05-2006, 08:09 AM
John:
I beleive they are refering to sales volume, not median price. As sales decreases volume increases; supply and demand dictate as demand lessens and volume increase, price eventually drops. Median price is not a very good indication of market health. As sales decrease, people in the wealthier stratas continue to buy higher priced homes because they can afford to, the decrease in number of overall homes sold and the increase in the price of the few homes that were sold to wealthier buyers skews the median price higher. The same thing can be seen in other markets. A higher median price in a decrease sales volume is a sign that the average J6P (joe six pack) buyer has left the building. Jared
10-06-2006, 04:25 AM
The median home price on the big island is up 14.53% in the 30 day period from august 2006 to sept 2006. Or down 4.07% from the all time high of $447,500 set in June of 2006. There is no melt down. Its a correction. Prices are down in L.A., about 10%. People who can't afford the houses they bought will lose them. Somebody else will step up to the plate and buy the house from the bank. Everything is for a reason. Think long term, like 5 to 15 years. Any property NEAR THE WATER will be up 50 to 100%. long term. Do you really think a acre lot in HPP is going back to $10k or $15k? I notice that people who don't own real estate are more likely to be negative about the future of prices because it supports their view that some magic moment in the future will be better to get in.
And yes, right now is a better time to be buying than say 12 months ago, but it is not a melt down. Anyway, stay the course, thousand points of light, book em Dano, be there, Aloha.
10-06-2006, 09:49 AM
quote: That's an awesome bumper sticker!!! I think I'll go find one for myself!
10-06-2006, 02:01 PM
Lets start kicking the legs out from under the stood. Construction first:
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p...60415/1071
10-06-2006, 02:37 PM
Speaking as a person whose brother and nephews are in construction, I'm not certain a slowdown is all that important. It's nice to be booked a year out but booked 3 months out will do. and some BI construction is being done by mainland firms who can easily withdraw. Others will be freed to do the jobs that now they won't do,; the little remodeling jobs or the smaller buildings. Maybe it won't take 5-6 months to get that electrician but only two. How many unpermitted jobs would be permitted if only qualified help was easier to get. This really may be very good news to a lot of ordinary folks. Time will tell.
10-06-2006, 02:58 PM
I've been building for thirty five years. Some years are busier than others. Skilled, dependable people are generally busy.
I think a great number of unpermitted buildings are the result of attitude. Some folks revel in flying under the radar if they can. What I most resent are some local slum lords I know of that would buy cheap lots, throw up an illegal shack and sell it, no money down, high interest to the naieve and unsuspecting. Usually those buyers are the ones who can least afford to get ripped off. Miss one payment and Mr. Slumlord would reposses and resell again and again and finance more such deals. One guy I know of was operating about 80 properties that way. No water, no power, no septic, no permit - just flimsy shacks in the jungle. He's still out there somehwere.
Assume the best and ask questions.
Punaweb moderator
10-06-2006, 05:10 PM
Lee and Rob:
I think this is just the beginning of what will blossom here in in 2Q2007-4Q2007 here in Hawaii. I used to be (call it reformed) a finish carpenter (its was one of many family trades), I have/used to restore staircases, paneling and furniture in some of the grand residences and boats on the west coast. You can schedule work out in advance only to have it jerked from under you in a second in a collapse. I actually have 106 custom turned and carved mahogany spindles and 6 12x12 balustrades and railing for a job that paid upfront for materials and 33% labor upfront only to be jerked during the tech collapse in San Francisco. I just think this is interesting because this is how it started the last times. If you have ever watched Lethal Weapon (it might be 1 or 2) where there is a whole subdivision on fire; that was part of the earlier 90s bust in California, the construction company found it easier to sale the whole alligator to a movie company than sell the thing. Jared
10-07-2006, 01:13 PM
quote: It was Lethal Weapon 3, not LW, or LW2. For the record, if you seee the directors cut LW3 DVD, they said the empty houses were the result of the Savings & Loans crisis at the time. They actually only used 12 houses out of the incomplete subdivision up in Lancaster CA. Edited by - Aaron S on 10/07/2006 17:14:53 Edited by - Aaron S on 10/07/2006 17:18:22 |
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