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Jared, I still don't really understand
why you insist on instilling fear about
this.Do you have a hidden agenda ? Do
you want the United States to fall into the Great Depression and cash in when it happens ?
Edited by - Aaron S on 10/07/2006 17:17:53
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I don't think it requires folks to "fear" falling house prices, but considering how large of an investment a house and or land is, folks need to be aware of pricing trends before going to to buy. I would think Jared is doing them a favor if he can get them to think about the possiblity of the whole enchilada falling before they go out and get financing to buy something expecting the prices to continue to skyrocket.
For the past half decade, all I've heard has been about how the prices can "never" drop and folks who believed this were getting some really strange financing in order to be able to afford to buy properties. Now or if not right now, pretty soon, some of these people will owe more than the properties they bought are worth. If they had extended themselves to get the properties expecting to "flip" them in six months or a year when the price has increased, things are not going to be good. Foreclosures are up and it is just the beginning. If they bought the houses at a price they can afford to pay for the next twenty years, then they will do fine and they will at least have a place to live until the prices are back up to the next peak but that will be about a decade from now.
When was the last big downturn we had? 1995? How fast was it? How far down did prices go? Why can't it happen again?
Heheheh!
A hui hou!
Catz
"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson
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Well it doesn't take a rocket scientist
to see that this island (and state) is
screwed if the bottom falls out in the
real estate market. As 85% all jobs on
this island are directly/indirectly
related to tourism and construction.
I remember when this island had 10% unemployment-it wasn't a pretty picture.
Edited by - Aaron S on 10/07/2006 22:39:15
Edited by - Aaron S on 10/07/2006 22:40:33
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In our News Paper, Moody reported that Butte county Chico will be expecting a 12.6% correction from the 2004 second quarter housing prices. The bottom of the correction would be in 2008. Personally I think that is dogging the bullet considering that this same area was able to appreciate over 20% in a two month time frame at the height of home price increases. Honolulu was given a .3% correction one of the lowest reported. They are expecting that housing prices to stay this way for a long peroid of time. Does that mean at a normal inflation rate?
http://www.prnewswire.com/news/index_mail.shtml?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-04-2006/0004445206&EDATE=
Keith
Keith
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"prepare for the worst and hope for the best"...
Since both of our incomes were construction dependent.... we have already started to diversify. My SO used to be in the aeronatical engineering/mfg (Boeing) and has some very specialized talents/training/exp and has begun to look for short 2-3 month "contract" jobs back in that field for 2007--- just in case...
He can still build here but has a safety net. I believe it's the people who freefall that may be hurt in the downturn...
-Cat
Catherine Dumond
Blue Water Project Management
808 217-7578
http://bluewaterpm.125mb.com/index.html
"We help make building your dream home a reality"
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Okay, construction folks, what do YOU plan to do during the next construction downswing?
Several decades ago, during a downswing I did upholstery instead of drafting. During the next downswing, I took a mainland construction gig for a 5,000 sq. ft. "log cabin" (won't do THAT again!) and there was that stint of driving a tour bus during the last "correction". For the next upcoming down turn, I may take up cuckoo clock repair and gardening. (Obviously, I don't need a very large income.)
Anyone else have any "contingency" plans?
Just niele, as always!
A hui hou!
Catz
"I like yard sales," he said. "All true survivalists like yard sales."
Kurt Wilson
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What happened to Pakalolo farming as a backup occupation?
S. FL Islander to be
Pua`a
S. FL
Big Islander to be.
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Unfortunately that's been replaced with ICE, a much, much worse alternative!
Edited by - Tahunatics on 10/13/2006 12:28:23
Steve & Regina
Hawaiian Acres / North Lake Tahoe
'If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there' - George Harrison
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quote:
Okay, construction folks, what do YOU plan to do during the next construction downswing?
Several decades ago, during a downswing I did upholstery instead of drafting. During the next downswing, I took a mainland construction gig for a 5,000 sq. ft. "log cabin" (won't do THAT again!) and there was that stint of driving a tour bus during the last "correction". For the next upcoming down turn, I may take up cuckoo clock repair and gardening. (Obviously, I don't need a very large income.)
Anyone else have any "contingency" plans?
Just niele, as always!
A hui hou!
Catz
Just remember, what separates companies from good companies is that the good companies thrive in bad economy too.
Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185
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yes John you are right in saying good companies stay in business during bad times but they do make adjustments in what they do and look for ways to diversify... or looks at what owners need now that they have built a house.
I think what has happened in "bad" construction times is that there were many owners using the lull to get really low bids. That is all well and good... but remember good and fast does not equal good fast and cheap. Cheap and fast does not always equal good. My SO hasnt changed his bidding/rate from the beginning except to adjust for fuel/material cost increases. He didnt raise it because people would pay more. The crews that did that will be hurt more because people remember that.
So he plans to stay close to his rate and maybe do fewer jobs and maintain quality and integrity. At this point, he is looking somewhat forward to 5 days a week of work rather than 7 days...
For myself, I am adding a certified home inspector to my crew. Broadens what we can do but stays in the same field, and addresses the "next step" market.
Catherine Dumond
Blue Water Project Management
808 217-7578
http://bluewaterpm.125mb.com/index.html
"We help make building your dream home a reality"
