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quote:
Originally posted by Mindful
Not sure if this has been discussed or not...but isn't the real fear with the virus is that it can mutate into something deadly that cannot be controlled/cured. I thought this virus in and of itself is not deadly but if a mutation occurs that is, then anyone catching the mutated version can die. Or maybe, catching the 1st form (non deadly, non mutated form) is the best vaccine for the deadly version if that were to occur.
Just a wild theory, maybe I'm wrong about all this. Not suggesting anyone get the virus to prevent future viruses, that would be silly.
I mean... It's already killed people, so it *is* deadly...
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The real fear is that the quarantines and stuff (like the drop in air travel and factory closings) will crash the world economy.
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If you haven't spent any time reading about the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, now would be a good time to do so, just as a way of understanding the possibilities involved, including disruptions to "business" as usual.
https://health.hawaii.gov/about/files/20...andyou.pdf
"Not everyone will become sick in a pandemic, but everyone will likely feel some disruption of routine life. [...] Stock enough household supplies to last for several weeks. [...] Officials may issue orders to “shelter in place” (stay at home) or evacuate."
Yes, the virus can mutate to something more deadly, but it can also mutate to something less so. In general, natural selection favors flu viruses that are very contagious, but not very lethal, as they spread the best (dead people don't infect as many as the living). The mortality caused by viruses is more a side-effect than the intent.
Nonetheless, in Hawaii the Spanish flu did cause several thousand deaths, while American Samoa had no fatalities due to effective quarantines. It's a tricky balance as exposure to the earlier less deadly variety of the virus may actually be preferable as it can lead to resistance for when it really matters, it also has its own risks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fl...econd_wave
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The chief medical officer in England announced anyone who has traveled to Japan in the last 14 days that develops a cough or fever or shortness of breath self isolate and call 111 for medical advise.
Japan was on the list with several other countries. Just a cough.......
Lots of folks going and coming from Japan here daily. Especially elderly Japanese. I fly between islands 1-2 times a month. The amount of coughing/clearing of throats on our inter island flights is constant.....It is a tad concerning England has announced this about Japan.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-...the-public
This advice applies to travellers who have returned to the UK from the following areas:
China
Thailand
Japan
Republic of Korea
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
Macau
If you have returned to the UK from any of these areas in the last 14 days and develop symptoms of cough or fever or shortness of breath, you should immediately:
stay indoors and avoid contact with other people as you would with the flu
call NHS 111 to inform them of your recent travel to the country In Scotland phone your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours If you are in Northern Ireland, call 0300 200 7885.
Please follow this advice even if your symptoms are minor.
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Excellent post Islandlvng. Seeing how the intelligent first world countries are protecting their citizens as the rogue Big Island gets a pamphlet.
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@ironyak
After my last post, I decided not to get into a disagreement with your version of percentages.
So, I wandered on.
Can't do that anymore.
Working with tonight's numbers:
31,487 Totally Confirmed Cases World Wide, (of which 31,175 are in Mainland China)
683 total deaths
1,610 Total Recovered
1st Reported Symptoms
12/8/19
Not sure just how long the sickness from exposure or end of incubation to resolution lasts.
But, from the numbers I've seen it looks to me that it take 2 weeks to a month or more to reach a resolution, recovery or death.
From this, most of the infected people are still in the throes of their infection that has not yet been resolved.
Infections have been growing recently from 2k to 4k per day.
They cannot be included in calculating the mortality rate yet.
This particular disease has not run long enough to be able to figure in the total cases and still be reasonably accurate about its effect.
The mortality rate has improved the last few days.
I assume the supportive care has improved with experience and is helping to bring the number of survivors up.
I'm hoping blood samples from survivors can be used in the development of a vaccine.
Anyway, 683 + 1610 = 2293 resolved infections
2293/683 = 29.8% fatality rate
The rate has improved.
A few days ago it was over 50%.
Hopefully it will continue to improve as experience grows, culminating when they create a newr vaccine for it at least couple of years down the road.
You cannot disregard the Chinese infections.
They are still a potential source of a world-wide pandemic.
Chinese medicine is not as undeveloped as you imply, blind sided, over taxed, and hampered by the attitudes and actions of those that govern them, ... yes with no doubt.
With no reported infections yet, Honolulu is now listed as an infection center.
Your government at work protecting you.
If they set the quarantine area up here, where we have nothing yet, they will protect the mainland and keep it confined to a few islands away from them.
It certainly wouldn't take long for any infections in Honolulu to reach Big Island.
Is Hawaii being written off by the powers that be as acceptable collateral damage?
The present corona virus threat is not a flu.
It is a pneumonia.
- - - - - - - - - - -
Was a Democrat until gun control became a knee jerk, then a Republican until the crazies took over, back to being a nonpartisan again.
This time, I can no longer participate in the primary.
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What’s the difference between the flu and pneumonia 1v1?
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1v1 - you're right in that the unresolved infected cases could go either way. Using CFR = deaths / deaths + recovered (~30%) is like a upper range estimate while CFR = deaths / confirmed cases (~2%) is like the lower range estimate. The true value is in there somewhere but will keep changing as cases get resolved.
Given the unreliability of numbers coming out a Hubei, I tend to look more at data from the other provinces or moreso other countries. While still early, the CFR there is quite low (~1%) although what happens over the next few weeks will give a more complete CFR and whether or not there is sustained transmission outside China aka a pandemic.
Not sure what you mean by Hawaii being used as a "quarantine zone" as other entry points have designated holding areas like Travis AFB in California which seems comparable. Obviously if you don't NEED to travel to Honolulu or other large population areas for the next few weeks, then don't. If you do, wash hands often & thoroughly, minimize contact, and don't touch your face (basic rules for reducing your chances of catching the flu as well).
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At last, the Punaweb theory made it into a real newspaper!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/healt...media.html
"They are facing an array of wildly untrue claims, such as that the coronavirus was created as a bioweapon..."
I also read that the virus only affects Asians! That would be bad news for Hawaii but as usual when something seems too ridiculous to be true, then it usually is (ridiculous, that is).
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the virus only affects Asians! That would be bad news for Hawaii
Disagree: it would sideline Ige and Kim, maybe we could get something done around here.
