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"There are those that think some sort of collapse might mean that waiting until the “end” might not mean the “best possible treatment”."
That's a fair point, but I would counter that it is in everyone's interest to try and help not creating a collapse. Whether that is actually possible or not is another question.
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What browser/OS are you using that can't go to the twitter website?
Full Publication - https://bit.ly/2TYS0RL
And yes, Bedford has been making sure that the science is open and freely available, as it is being used to drive policy, so it is being shared, commented on, and reviewed on a widely-used public platform.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/pu...-of-worlds
As apparently I haven't learned my lesson, here's a little math with those "mushy" percentages of infection.
- 7B world population * 40% infection rate * 1% mortality = 28,000,000 deaths world-wide (1.3M in the US)
- 7B world population * 70% infection rate * 1% mortality = 49,000,000 deaths world-wide (2.3M in the US)
If the mortality rate is actually higher (like the 3.4% WHO estimate), the numbers are worse (like 3x worse). It's not just the flu bro.
As for 28 Days or Weeks later, no one really knows right now. As this has spread widely it may become endemic in the environment leading to continual or seasonal outbreaks of "covid flu". This could be similar to the history of "polio summers" in the U.S.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot...t-a-killer
It could also mutate to a more or less virulent form that radically changes its distribution in the population, including just disappearing, like the Spanish flu.
Or we could come up with a vaccine that eradicates it world-wide, like smallpox, although as terracore has stated, SARS has shown such work to be extremely difficult/impossible. If it mutates to different strains (which can be common, hence why the flu shot changes each year) you might need to develop multiple vaccines.
We are in uncharted waters - here be dragons!
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You know, just offhand it seems the further this goes on that the china data is most certainly flawed. They first started having cases at the start of December and did not implement their tough procedures until almost a month and a half later.
For instance on Jan 21 China reported 240 cases and 6 fatalities of the flu and was gearing up to build extra hospitals. 13 days later China had 17205 and 361 Fatalities averaging 1.2 cases per 100,000 people.
To make a comparison lets take a look at Italy when they also had about the same cases as china first started reporting. 229 and 6 fatalities on Feb 25. 13 days later, Italy has slightly fewer infections but a higher death rate. 10149 and 631 Fatalities with an overall infection rate of 16.8 per 100,000.
South Korea, doing much better with testing and containment seems to have settled down to also a 15.9 per 100,000 people infection rate.
The rest of the EU is following the same infection rate per 100K that Italy and South Korea had seen along their previous infection rate numbers.
This is kinda good news because its lower than 20% that might require hospitalization. Its not good because death rate among those is still pretty high.
So if the infection rate stays at that 16 per 100K it would mean that the United states should top out at about 57,000 infections total. Which, to be honest is absolutely wonderful if and I say if that 16:100K infection rate holds true.
It also means that if you take that 16:100K infection rate and apply it to china they actually had to have had 240,000 infections and over 9000 dead.. conservatively.
If we apply those figures to Hawaii, we should only see 226 cases in the same time period as other countries. Keep your fingers crossed.
If the numbers do not change which they may. I think were going to get through this a lot better than before now more solid data is coming out. Lots of things can happen in the next few months to change it, Virus could mutate and become more deadly, or less..
Now, I know your all saying that this does not look bad.. I agree. This looks to be a lot less of a thing than we are being led to believe. So either there is something much more scary to it that we are not being told, or there is another reason for the actions being taken.
For those who like to crunch numbers.. heres the source data https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/
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It's an interesting analysis and a good way to normalize the data per capita to make comparisons.
Couple thoughts:
I think only South Korea's data can be fully counted on currently as there are plenty of confirmations on their accuracy and transparency. They also appear to be reaching their peak of infection. Also they are far enough along in the epidemic to have an okay (but not great) number of resolved cases to calculate mortality with. As we know they have really set the standard for NPIs, I would see their 16 cases per 100K people as a best case scenario when proactive, smart, & targeted efforts are made.
As the U.S. has not adopted SK's approach, I think it is overly optimistic to use their results as guidance to predict ours. Then again, with the lack of testing we won't know what the numbers ever really are or were (much like Iran whose mass graves being made can be seen from space). The head of CDC had to admit that some "flu" deaths in the past months in the U.S. were undiagnosed COVID-19.
(grain of salt - haven't checked the uncut video but states are testing samples from flu deaths back several weeks and finding COVID-19
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/stat...9999062016)
Italy's data unfortunately is too new to rely on statistically IMHO. Given their delay in taking action, and their overrun hospitals, I would expect their cases to continue to climb above 16 per 100K.
Either way, I agree that this helps makes clear how outlandish the China data appears to be. While China did take extraordinary measures, the idea that they were 14x better at containment than SK at similar point in time is highly suspect.
ETA: It looks like China is at 5.6/100K currently (~3x better than SK with latest numbers) so this data seems to highlight the differences in reaching the inflection point in the curve as soon as possible. Actions now have LARGE benefits in the outcome!
Interesting stuff! Please continue to share (if Rob allows)
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Originally posted by ironyak
- 7B world population * 40% infection rate * 1% mortality = 28,000,000 deaths world-wide (1.3M in the US)
- 7B world population * 70% infection rate * 1% mortality = 49,000,000 deaths world-wide (2.3M in the US)
If the mortality rate is actually higher (like the 3.4% WHO estimate), the numbers are worse (like 3x worse). It's not just the flu bro.
Sounds like about a (hopefully one time) doubling of the normal US death rate (2.5 million-ish per year) except that a significant percentage of those with pre-existing health conditions who succumb to coronavirus would be in the normal death rate anyway.
from the death percent thread:
Yes, the elderly and ill at health are more at risk of dying (from 1 in 30 people aged 60-69 dying to about 1 in 8 people aged 80+.) Do you know 30 people above the age of 60? This means one or more of them are likely to die from this if they get infected.
That does not mean young people don't die. For every 1000 teenagers that get this, about 2 of them will die. That is true for every age group up to 40 at which point it starts to go up.
Those odds really don't seem that treacherous to me, but to misquote Stalin, one death is tragic, but a million deaths is a statistic.
We are in uncharted waters - here be dragons!
As we have been in the past and will be in the future.
This will play out however it plays out and is largely beyond an individual's control in the long term regardless of how flattened the curve gets.
All things being equal (which of course they are not) I wouldn't mind if I was already exposed (and maybe I am) to COVID-19. If I die, I die. I like my odds. I should probably fear death more than I do, but I just don't.
In general, this sort of fatalism means that my quality of life is better than it would be if living in fear, panic, etc. Or so it seems. The majority of those around me seem to have a similar approach--that SugarHoneyIceTea happens.
Of course, I will do what I can to flatten the curve and be a team player.
Cheers,
Kirt
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this sort of fatalism means that my quality of life is better than it would be if living in fear, panic, etc.
It is also possible to wash hands regularly & keep a safe distance from crowds without fear or panic. The best of both worlds (given our present reality)?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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It is also possible to wash hands regularly & keep a safe distance from crowds without fear or panic.
Nope, only manic and paranoid deep scrubbing can get those bugs off of you (don't forget to check the doggo too! 
https://youtu.be/y7oA7sAHWXY?t=34
Sounds like about a (hopefully one time) doubling of the normal US death rate (2.5 million-ish per year)
Sure, I guess only twice as many people dying as usual (based on the low estimates) is no big deal. Dust bin of history and all that?
This will play out however it plays out and is largely beyond an individual's control in the long term regardless of how flattened the curve gets.
Of course, the forces in play are bigger than any individual, but the collective actions of individuals can and do make a difference. To put it in pop culture terms, the flapping of a butterfly's wings does change the weather, but in this case the butterfly gets to decide how.
Compare South Korea (low mortality, social stability, & tech innovations) to Iran (political instability, rioting, & mass graves) and figure out which COVID-19 outcome you want to be a part of?
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Ironyak, I think your thoughts are correct however as long the Big Island continues to be a tourist destination(cruise ships especially) we will all need to literally stay at home. I work as do many of my friends in that industry and from what I've seen and experienced we are rolling out the red carpet to COVID-19. From personally just hosting an infectious disease physician who decided to come here last minute when the CDC cancelled their conference(I didn't know till he was leaving) to more that I won't tell.
On a good note, one of our nations top infectious experts(I looked him up) thought Puna would be a good place to unwind and get away from it all. I assume he doesn't know about the cruise ships.
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But Gov Ige and our Department of Health say "The public is advised that exposure risk to tour operators and other hospitality services who interact with visitors on cruises is low." Are they lying? Will they be criminally liable for spreading disinformation that gets people killed making a few more bucks?
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Small bit of good news is that Princess Cruises is suspending all operations for 60 days.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/princess-cr...ronavirus/
That's obviously not all the cruise lines that visit here, but it might be the first of many to follow suit (just like with the vast number of colleges moving to online only classes - these decisions build a momentum once the first one breaks the inertia)
we will all need to literally stay at home
Yep, that's what social distancing means. (NSFW)
IF POSSIBLE, work from home, suspend school, avoid all public interactions that are not ESSENTIAL. Hopefully we can make these changes now as early changes have greater impact on the final outcome, or we can wait till the powers that be force them on us when daily life falls apart like we've seen in South Korea and Italy.
Many people out there in Hawaii are already infected but haven't been tested (Lt Governor said as much yesterday during his Q & A - watch the interview) and people are going to get sick. All you can do is take steps to minimize your chances that you are part of the surge that leads to lots of people not getting treatment at the hospitals and dying.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/03/1...ronavirus/
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