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Interesting modeling for each state when the window of opportunity for action closes to prevent the hospitals running out of beds and being overloaded.
https://covidactnow.org/state/HI
We are in the middle of the period of no return. If serious actions are not implemented now, the prediction is the hospitals will be overwhelmed around April 8th. If only social distancing is used, the hospital capacity might make it till around April 22nd.
tl;dr - pretty shapes and colors - wash your hands before snack time
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The question of the day for us on the Big Island is whether Harry Kim will finally get with the program and enact stringent measures. Oahu, Maui, and Kauai now all have some form of stay at home orders in place. The lack of action is now at the point of criminal negligence, and the county council should take action to remove Kim from office if he doesn't act today. I would say that the governor could overrule Harry, but Ige has shown himself to be typically late to act in this crisis.
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An update today on the possibility that Coronavirus spreads less rapidly under warm, humid conditions, (on this cold and rainy day in Puna):
Communities living in warmer places appear to have a comparative advantage to slow the transmission of coronavirus infections, according to an early analysis by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The researchers found that most coronavirus transmissions had occurred in regions with low temperatures, between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (or 3 and 17 degrees Celsius).
... regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (or 18 degrees Celsius) account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far.
The temperature dependency is also clear within the United States, Dr. Bukhari said. Southern states, like Arizona, Florida and Texas, have seen slower outbreak growth compared with states like Washington, New York and Colorado.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/healt...virus.html
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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I've been wondering with the size of most extended local families here on the BI, if it isn't better not to have a shut down as seen on the more crowded islands. In other words perhaps the Wuhan lockdown style is not appropriate for warmer weather where people go to the beach and parks, an environment less apt to spread the virus vs. cramped up at home with individuals occasionally leaving and potentially bringing the virus back to a crowded closed environment.
Lock it down means just that. Not some wishy washy mumble jumble selfish people try to invent to make it easier on themselves. If you are crammed in with auntie figure it out. But stay home.
Any suggestion that our public places should be where families go to alleviate their discomfort is ridiculous. Go to the back yard. Hang out on the lanai. But stay home. If you don't like it, tough.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/healt...taste.html
On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
“We really want to raise awareness that this is a sign of infection and that anyone who develops loss of sense of smell should self-isolate,” Prof. Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, wrote in an email. “It could contribute to slowing transmission and save lives.”
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Kim did a radio interview where he made it clear he does not intend to do a shelter in place order. His rational was it would hurt the island economy too much. He is a damned fool, so if you value your family's life, best to isolate them now, and only go out with a mask when absolutely essential. If you're one of the heroes working at groceries or deliveries, medical, or a first responder, always wear some kind of protection and don't bring the virus home with you. It seems to get worse the more close contact you have with the infected.
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Being realistic knowing that a large family on the BI isolating together and that they will be going for supplies probably more often than they should and mingling with friends or strangers.....I wonder if it is not better to social distance at the beach as opposed to being in a house with 5 or more people sharing germs they bring home regularly.
It's nice to think idealistically it's wise to remember most people are flawed and that will show in their behaviors. Am I better off in my own space several feet away from other beach goers or in the house with a mate who just came back from shopping preparing meals together?
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My mother and grandmother lived thru WWII. The advise I heard the most from both nurses? If salt water and sun doesn't cure you then go to the doctor.
He is a damned fool
You put it so kindly.
