Decline in Real Estate

[Beachboy]

quote:

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"I don't dispute that something is happening but it is hard to know what. The articles I've read are just too vague. They talk about bubbles, they talk about hard landings and soft landings, they talk about downturns and over priced markets. That is all very nice, but what I want to know is what about my house on my street and none of these articles tell me anything about that.

I have to admit, the Hawaii real estate market is a real puzzle to me. Many properties appear to me to be incredibly over priced and YET.... they sell. I shake my head in wonderment. I read about a Honolulu 3 bedroom, 1500 sq ft fixer upper priced at 1.5 mill and I just have no words...."

Lee,
May I get away with mentioning to you that you don't say what you want to do with that house, so it is hard for anyone to answer you reasonably. ) LOL
common communication error here on forum boards....
Would you like to Sell, live in rent or where is it located? is your area in a Good market, slow market.....? Comparative market anaylsis done for you, giving you an evaluation of your house?
Houses prices in the neighbor hood that have sold this year?
What shape is it in, if you are living there how long are you going to stay? Things like that. What are your plans for it and you? Fix it and to what degree?

One thing for certain the future has to be written yet,(speculative) the past it is all there for us to learn from (None speculative for the most part)just given the proper set of reality and which way you view or interprite it. I do appreciate your honesty of asking and saying it is all a mystery to you. We all puzzle about the future, especially if you are looking toward change.

History has a way of being factual and we can draw upon it to help us form our own opinions. You don't need to speculate on the statistical averages of the past they are all written there fairly consisely, but it is best if you keep an even balance about looking at the future and know that the price does fluctuate depending upon when you are in the market. The timing is hard to pick of buying low and selling high. Just do what you feel comfortable with given the facts that present themselves, not on what is pure speculation or someone elses set of beliefs.
If you are still confused, I might write some more for you to mull over and kick around, maybe even trying to be much more precise to show a better understanding.
If so, feel free to write me if anything I have written has a sense of ringing true for you.
We all can have our own thoughts and hold their own values over this, that is fine by me, we all like to gather some facts up to kick around and come to some conclusions with which we feel comfortable with to make a wise decision over. Certainly looking at most likely the largest investments most anyone makes. It does give one pause to look at it from many angles, which is highly prudent to be cautious and use due care and judgement.

Aloha,
Lucy



Having another Great day in Paradise, Wherever that Maybe!
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TheLanai

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the market in Honolulu is what it is!!! My house/property where I currently live in Honolulu until I move to Puna is less than 700 sq. ft on a lot less than 3thousand sq ft and it's worth $800.000.00 as is!!!

But it's now a chance for people the buy, especially folks that are on the border(most local families) $$$$ wise.

[Jared I]

HaoleBoy: Sorry about the Tigers, that prediction was made last spring. I did have some very good numbers over all though in the different leagues and races.

For the rest of us an interesting read from Merrill Lynch: (its a PDF)

http://www.billcara.com/ML%20Oct%2026%20...20Word.pdf

If the builder are in a race to the bottom that will only hurt alot of J6P owners who can't lower their price, construction/mortgage/realty workers (a large portion of recent years job and economic growth), the housing ATM (refinancing & HELOC) and the economy (good thing alot of those crazy loans are tied to LIBOR and not the fed rate) . Construction workers start honing your resumes.

Jared

[Aaron S]

Jared,
I hope you are honing your resume. As you
will be affected by any housing crash.All of us
will be, some more severely than others. Why
don't you just say we are headed for depression,instead of pussy footing around it.

[haoleboy]

Jared is a crackpot. Disregard all his comments and predictions.

Tigers in 6 games. ppppphhhhhttttt!

Nothing personal Jared.

Aloha
Richwhiteboy

"Why do actors think they are so goddamn important? They're not. Acting is not an important job in the scheme of things. Plumbing is."
-- Spencer Tracy

[Jared I]

HoaleBoy, predictions aren't an exact science, there is a lot of sway and chance thats what keeps it interesting. You can only take position on the information you have at the time. I had the tigers back in Feb, not a bad run though. You should see my NHL, NBA and NFL picks.

Aaron: Are you really so naive to think that all suffer the same lot in life. I have moved out of the work force a couple years back after I sold off my RE (call it semi-retirement), now I am just a lowly stay-at-home-dad. After my boy is a bit bigger I will probably go back to real work. Oh yeah, I rent, not because I dont want to own but because of rent vs own cost ratios. It makes better fiscal sense, a house isnt a home its an expense. I am honing my skills and knowledge not my resume, but I do plan on going back to get a bit more schooling. Not everyone is ill affected in a down economy only those who failed to position themselves. I am hoping my fore-thought and positioning will serve me well and I may profit from the down-turn like I did the up-turn. I can't declare a depression, government economists will declare that after it happens. Why do you curse my lantern and I(reference Diogenes)? I am just trying to provide insight, not alot of people move in financial circle or understand markets like they should. How about a gem from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aF5My4Z6jHiY&refer=economy

But what does it mean?

Jared

[Aaron S]

Jared,
Re-read what I wrote, especially this aspect

"All of us will be,some more severely than others."

That being said, I'm surprised you are
quick on making dire predictions about
the housing market. But unwilling to go
any farther than that. Do I sense a chink
in your armor. I'm sure you'll be thrilled
if there is depression.



Edited by - Aaron S on 10/28/2006 20:57:33

Edited by - Aaron S on 10/28/2006 20:58:07

[haoleboy]

Jared I
Starting Member


36 Posts Posted - 10/22/2006 : 19:42:21
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HoaleBoy, I am glad you liked my predictions. I can tell you now my preseason Vegas bet was placed on D-town, so I am hoping to clear some funds. I am prepping for my preseason NBA and NHL bets this weekend.


Jared- looks to me like you confirmed your prediction on October 21. You're still a crackpot, but good luck with your Charger defense today.

I can tell you what real estate is going to do, and you can this advice to the bank. Prices will go down, then up. But I may have this order reversed.

Aloha
Richwhiteboy

"Why do actors think they are so goddamn important? They're not. Acting is not an important job in the scheme of things. Plumbing is."
-- Spencer Tracy

[adias]

All indications are that problems in the Housing sector will have a large ripple effect in the economy, not just in Hawaii but Nation wide. Obviously, no one can predict the future, and many possible outcomes are possible, but clearly the economy is in transition period.

After the giddy heights and busts of the dot com boom, just a few years ago vigilance is preferable to denial . Interesting article on the subject from the Washington Post;

"The U.S. economy is more dependent on housing than it has been in a half-century, as the sector fuels consumer spending and has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the nation's job growth in the past five years." Washingtion Post,Wednesday, April 5, 2006


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...01629.html



Edited by - adias on 10/29/2006 03:58:03

[Beachboy]

quote:

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All indications are that problems in the Housing sector will have a large ripple effect in the economy, not just in Hawaii but Nation wide. Obviously, no one can predict the future, and many possible outcomes are possible, but clearly the economy is in transition period.

After the giddy heights and busts of the dot com boom, just a few years ago vigilance is preferable to denial . Interesting article on the subject from the Washington Post;

"The U.S. economy is more dependent on housing than it has been in a half-century, as the sector fuels consumer spending and has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the nation's job growth in the past five years." Washingtion Post,Wednesday, April 5, 2006


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...01629.html



Edited by - adias on 10/29/2006 03:58:03

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our economy nationally has taken a 17% hit because of the housing market! Is it gonna keep falling the next few months until the housing market levels itself upright?

[Jared I]

Beachboy, if you follow the boom/bust theory of the markets the magic numbers is .6 roughly. Number of boom years(.6)= your magic number to the bottom of the market. Say the market boom was between 2000-2005 or 5 yrs, it will bottom around 3 years or 2008-2009 (that does not mean it will recover and go back directly to boom). There are a number of other factors but that is a good guess based on past booms/busts.

Another would be cost of renting vs. buying, historically it is monthly rent x 120-150(or there abouts)= cost of buying or you can do yourself a favor and only purchase a home about 3.5(max) you average gross yearly income and not worry about it.

Keep you nose in the financial trades and watch the home volume and the spring home selling season. Alot of pundits including Greenspan and David Learh are saying the worst maybe behind us but things arent shaping up that way

Jared