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From ironyak’s link (above):
By writing off South Korea’s response as culturally bound, the West is once again making the same mistake, failing to recognize that Asia’s solution could be its solution too.
We’re fine sitting in front of a Korean Samsung flat screen 6 hours a day (watching reruns of M*A*S*H), or tooling around the island in a Kia - - but following their COVID-19 protocols? That’s asking too much. Even for Harry Kim. We’re a stubborn lot.
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Reminds me of all the Hawaii sovereignty supporters driving around with Hawaii state flags upside down on their Ford, Chevy and GM pickups...
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TomK - However, I really fear those in charge, i.e., the feds and our state's government will try and reopen things too quickly and not wait for new infections to reach zero around the world, and we'll just get a second wave.
Agreed - again, these are just models, predictions, maps - human artifacts that attempt to guess and describe a future reality - they are not the actual reality in which we live.
Here's another model from the University of Texas showing the likelihood of a sustained, undetected outbreak already happening based on current known cases. Chances that is going here on Hawaii Island - 98%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020...emics.html
That's 98% chance we already have uncontrolled, unaccounted for community transmission, but another guess saying only 50 - 450 total deaths is the outcome. Hard to square these two visions of the world right?
In the marketplace of ideas, people appear to be impulse shopping for whatever data makes them feel the most.
The truth is no one knows how this will turn out - could be quite bad and every individual action has an impact. Seems more productive to focus on taking those simple steps that help, rather than trying to pick out the best crystal ball that says what you want to hear?
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we already have uncontrolled, unaccounted for community transmission.
It’s a special feature of not enough test kits. If we can’t trace the people who’ve had contact with those who tested positive, and test them, can we really know whether or not the virus is lurking within a population of asymptotic individuals?
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves
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Funny, the state director of health up until yesterday said we don't need to test asymptomatic people. I've also not heard anything from Ige about what they are doing to secure more/faster/antibody tests. Are they just terrible communicators, or are they really failing to get ahead of this?
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The concern about community transmission is the entire point of a stay at home directive. The virus can't live indefinitely in its hosts, I don't believe.
Even when lurking within a population of asymptomatic people it will die out if those people stay home for a month.
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"Are they just terrible communicators, or are they really failing to get ahead of this?" - randomq
Both.
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quote:
Originally posted by randomq
Funny, the state director of health up until yesterday said we don't need to test asymptomatic people.
Persons under investigation, in other words those who have been determined to have had contact with known cases, must get tested whether they have symptoms or not.
Testing the entire population of those without symptoms is probably not feasible. Just stay home!
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Durian, I think our version of a stay-at-home directive will *slow* the spread, but there are so many exceptions the virus will still be spreading. With enough tests in a short window of time, we could completely lock down the infected (no working the checkout line for a few weeks, no trips to the store, no leaving the house) until it truly was eradicated here. Then reopen the economy, and start allowing tourists that test clean to come back. At that point, if rich tourists want to ride out the epidemic at one of our fine resorts, we can allow them to and charge a premium for it.
ETA: "known cases" is the problem. Without sufficient testing of the population we don't know the true extent of asymptomatic transmission.
