We're Doomed

[Obie]

Hey hokuili, don't like whats happening in Hawaii maybe you could move to Hong Kong.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/homepage2...index.html

[Guest]

Why are we "leaving the rest of the world behind"

Rachel had one plot, towards the end of the segment I linked above, that made this point graphically clear. It's a 5 minute segment and I didn't see a way to put a time stamp on that link so maybe a walk through that Oxford site is easier..

Try look at:

Are countries bending the curve?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#a...-the-curve

New confirmed cases in different countries..

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid...100th-case

The death rates in different countries..

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#a...-countries

I could go on, all of these are from that Oxford University site, and in each we see the USA is trending so far to the bad..

And of course, I'd be happy to see this all in a few weeks and realize my interpretation of those USA lines that are leaving the charts was only a momentary lapse in reason, rather than suggestive of our covid-19 response being literally off the charts. Any help you'd like to render in that regard would be gratefully appreciated.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by kander

but the scale is not far beyond the rest of the world.
Yes, there are more infections due to there being a lot more people living in the united states.

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NY and NJ have about half of current cases and deaths in US. Recent news shows that the NY outbreak started in mid February, well before they knew what hit them.
Other than these two states that were "sucker punched"' as Fauci puts it, I think US as a whole is doing fairly well SO FAR. Much better than Europe to date.

[ironyak]

I thought the Maddow piece was more interesting for some of the state-to-state comparisons. For better and worse, the differences in perspectives and approaches are creating experiments across the states on to the effects and outcomes of various policies.
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/loca...es/519665/

The trouble is that these policies also affect testing rates so states that are testing a lot can look to be doing worse than states that aren't testing much. Probably won't know the actual cost of the policies until the unemployement and mortality rates are calculated after the fact (and massaged, spun, undercut, and messaged - political "science"?)

As for the US as a whole - are we doing great? Nope (see South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan for how to be successful without having to weld people in their apartments or shut down the whole of your economy) Are we doing amongst the worst? Appears so thus far even accounting for population differences (per capita we're around Italy for total cases at least with the same sort of concentrated hotspot activity) However, we're all still in the mix so probably premature to tally up the scores?

And yes, India has a potential to dwarf all the per country statistics (if they are able to test and report most cases) although the impact in Africa could also be extremely tragic just spread across dozens of countries that lack access to testing or even basic health care.

Are we really arguing about exactly how much of a national or global sh!tshow this is? It's a bad one, although local conditions will vary over time.

[Durian Fiend]

quote:

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Originally posted by ironyak

However, we're all still in the mix so probably premature to tally up the scores?

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Well, sure. I was mostly commenting on the pessimistic sentiment that Americans aren't taking this seriously and are generally selfish and defiant of public health directives.

Given our very poor preparations and pathetic early response to the pandemic at a national level, which made a big outbreak inevitable, it is my opinion that most states and their citizens have done a good job of getting on board to suppress the spread.

[Durian Fiend]

Regarding India, many of their people have an entirely different perspective. You don't need to know French to understand this short video. (3 min) These people normally pull recyclables or reusables from the dumps and resell them to make money. Now that none of their buyers are allowed to buy, they go there to find their only source of food.

They say confinement is a joke, and only for the rich.

At the end the little boy said the virus can't get us here, it stinks too bad and the microbes would eat it. The little girl says it doesn't matter if i die, we'll all die some day.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladi...or=EPR-502-[newslettervideo]-20200410-[video4]

[ironyak]

On a "cases per 1 million people" basis, here's the "doing-the-worst" score board as of this second:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
1 San Marino 10,138
2 Vatican City 9,988
3 Andorra 7,778
4 Luxembourg 5,149
5 Iceland 4,909
6 Faeroe Islands 3,766
7 Gibraltar 3,651
8 Spain 3,359
9 Switzerland 2,836
10 Italy 2,441
11 Isle of Man 2,364
12 Belgium 2,301
13 Monaco 2,141
14 Channel Islands 2,076
15 Liechtenstein 2,046
16 France 1,804
17 Montserrat 1,803
18 Portugal 1,517
19 Austria 1,502
20 USA 1,445
21 Falkland Islands 1,437
22 Germany 1,428
23 Netherlands 1,348
24 Ireland 1,331
25 Israel 1,166
26 Sint Maarten 1,166
27 Norway 1,152
28 UK 1,035
29 Denmark 1,005

Obviously some of the smallest countries are going to be disproportionately impacted by even a small number of cases, so among populational peers we're at least in the top 10 for suckage.

The little girl says it doesn't matter if i die, we'll all die some day.

While true, some of us at least get to live for a while? Hard to fault fatalism and comforting religious beliefs (afterlife, reincarnation, etc) as necessary coping mechanisms for a lack of knowledge, control, and options in the face of an uncaring universe and an unfolding disaster. Still tragic to hear though...

[PaulW]

Cases per capita depends a lot on how many people are tested. I think deaths per capita are a better indication, though a lot of countries are under-reporting their deaths, including the USA. NYT said today that the number of people dying at home in NYC has risen dramatically and they don't get tested for coronavirus.

The Top 11 deaths per capita: (deaths, pop in millions, deaths per million)

Spain...........14,045...46.72..300.60
Italy...........17,127...60.43..283.41
Belgium..........2,035...11.42..178.16
France..........10,328...66.99..154.18
Netherlands......2,101...17.23..121.93
Switzerland........824....8.52...96.75
United Kingdom...6,159...66.49...92.63
Sweden.............591...10.18...58.04
Iran.............3,872...81.80...47.33
Ireland............210....4.85...43.27
United States...12,888..327.17...39.39

US 11th out of 130. No doubt the US will be rising up the charts. Looks like the tiny countries have been excluded.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104...habitants/

ETA: looking at today's numbers the US is already up to 55 dpm.

[Mangosteen]

quote:

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Originally posted by hokuili

I agree geochem, we can not trust the numbers from China. I say that only because of their insistent need to spin things to their favor. Not that I have any idea on their reporting of this particular crisis. Their test rates verses ours verses the rest of the world. There are so many unknowns. But the same is true for the current USA executive's reporting. So, we're left wading through a morass of information that will take a long time to be sifted through. And still, even if we agree it's all vague and only relative, we still see a very disturbing pattern in the USA's lead in all things, except containment, as measured by world wide statistic..

If people can't stomach Rachel I would hope they'd find that University of Oxford site useful.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

I am just amazed how we, the USA, is leaving the rest of the world behind. In every way we are turning COVID-19 into something so much worse than the rest of the world. So much worse than it has to be.

And while I don't agree with authoritarian governments, I think our freedoms have left us unprepared to live without guidance in the face of these types of dangers. Guidance our current administration is wholly incapable of providing.

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About 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) (CDC STAT) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus in 2009 under the Obama administration. Sounds like the US could have had better "guidance during the Obama administration. The number of deaths showed that Obama was "wholly incapable of providing the "guidance" the Country needed at the time.

[Guest]

under Obama...

Oh god, give it a break already.