Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[kander]

30-50% of people being tested already have antibodies in their blood..


https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/5300...s-antibody

[Durian Fiend]

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Originally posted by hokuili

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Originally posted by Durian Fiend

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Originally posted by hokuili

I suspect history will not be kind to Dr. Fauci

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Why not? I imagine his approval rating is quite high presently.

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Yeah, well, the Prez's is too. There's no accounting for stupidity, is there?..

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From today's NYT: "Dr. Fauci has become a celebrated figure among much of the public, which trusts him far more than Mr. Trump, according to polls. A Quinnipiac University survey last week found that 78 percent of Americans approved of Dr. Fauci’s handling of the crisis compared with 46 percent who approved of the president’s response."

[PaulW]

That should be enough to doom him.

[kander]

Dr Fauci published an article in the new England journal of medicine. This is the top dog.. the number one Expert in virology for the united states..
In which is stated.

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

[ironyak]

Completing the sentence...
"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively. (note this is specifically about clinical consequences - what the treatment regiment looks like and the fatality percentages (not totals) involved.

Of course, Covid-19 is closer to a pandemic influenza than SARS or MERS given the huge differences in CFR. Covid-19 is also far more transmissible which is what the whole next paragraph is about.
"The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."

A 50% CFR (like Ebola) is very lethal, but few catch it as it is not very transmissible. SARS and MERS are similar in this regard.

Covid-19 has a much lower CFR but many many many more people will catch it. You can't just focus on one variable for your comparison when the other will be many magnitudes larger. (the difference between <1% and 30% means very little when the other variable is 100,000 to 1 or more)

Hard to take your media criticism seriously when it appears you've selectively quoted this article to push a particular narrow interpretation?

[kander]

My point is that the statistics given each day blow with whatever the prevailing wind is. We know the R naught is way higher and therefore more people will be infected and we need not go into that quagmire again. Fauci was on camera in Feb telling people that it wasnt a big deal then. The thing is that it is Fauci who is advising pence and the crew and if he is all over the place how are we to know what is really going on aside from the data that you or I can cherry pick from the Internet ourselves. A luxury most people cannot do.

Its not if you take me serious or not but if you can see the paradigm presented. If at any time evidence presents itself contrary to what you believe, write it down because the nature of the brain is to ignore it 30 minutes later.

[kalakoa]

how are we to know what is really going on

We're not.

[ironyak]

It's almost like hindsight is 20/20 and what we know today makes what we thought we knew yesterday a bit obsolete? Maybe like almost no one alive has been through such an event so we're all in new waters?

The criticism of past actions based on current information seems more than a bit disingenuous (not directed at you, rather watching both sides of the political spectrum trying to push their agenda through a "who should have known better back then" lens) Trump's little video today of Fox News criticizing other news sources for downplaying the virus was a new level of through-the-looking-glass blackwhite propaganda.

https://youtu.be/jiX4jvE90rY?t=4189

[kander]

Indeed. I saw that little bit of video presentation during the presser today. Looking glass for sure.

In other news I see that the new cases on the big island were contact traced to a fast food joint in Kona, one of the employees there was asymptomatic. I was seriously hoping we were going to run this thing to ground but another two weeks at least.

Now we have to worry about the family members and their extended contacts etc. The asymptomatic case brings up more questions as to where they got it from how long they have been asymptomatic and shedding virus. Being a fast food joint (heard it was McDonalds) we could see a rapid rise in cases as those places really pack the patrons through every day.

[Guest]

1% and 30% means very little when the hospitals are overwhelmed and bodies piling up.

I find it interesting to see how statistics can be used to bolster the impression that it ain't as bad as it seems when the only stats, imo, that mean anything is the number of people adversely effected. As Yak points out, it doesn't matter if our healthcare system is overwhelmed and people are dying. Who really cares if grandpa was one out of a thousand or one out of ten? If he's dead he's dead.