Wuhan Corona Virus Coming Soon? (Now Here)

[ironyak]

Me - It looks like your forgot some crucial info for your problem (or at least the good Reverend Thomas [Bayes] might say so)
TomK - No, I didn't.

So this was just for me to see if I know my Baysian Conditional Probability. I thought it was for everyone Tom?

Here's a noodle scratcher - how do you know what x is (the disease prevalence in the population for Paul's equation) when you don't have a validated test? That's the whole point and problem with a new test for a new disease with an unknown prevalence is you don't know this information as that is what the test is trying to determine.

Nice work though PaulW - really pulled that "out of nowhere." Any insights on Fermat's Last Theorem while you're warmed up?

But please TomK, if these two tests can pull up an actual result by their bootstraps, do share. I'm sure we'd all learn something from what you found on the internet.

Meanwhile, I'm going to go see if I can score some drugs at Dartmouth ya hack. (Nice job editing out the extra info actually needed to solve the question as I said)
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/...on3_8.html

[TomK]

You don't need to invoke Bayes to solve the problem.

[ironyak]

Cool - then share.

[TomK]

You're the expert here. And no, I didn't use the link you provided.

[kander]

Questionable. Experimentation on your own population your chartered to protect.

If a government that experiments on their own people like cattle is nothing to quibble about then yes everything is just a crazy A$$ conspiracy. WMD's in Iraq only cost what 3-5Million lives for "humanitarian" purposes.

When the historical data shows a given pattern. its self defeating to ignore possibilities of that pattern not repeating because why would the pattern change if there are no consequences to those actions?

Its like hiring a known thief to come work at your office, you decide why not? give the bloke a chance. yet every day the cash til comes up short. And then decry its a conspiracy theory.

[ironyak]

TomK - You're the expert here. And no, I didn't use the link you provided.

So the point of the exercise is to show that you can find something on the internet that I don't know? Neat - I concede the point.

Are you actually interested in discussing this material (with someone other than PaulW behind the scenes) or just in demonstrating that you can steal other people's work and show it off?

[TomK]

"Are you actually interested in discussing this material (with someone other than PaulW behind the scenes) or just in demonstrating that you can steal other people's work and show it off?"

I have no idea how to contact PaulW other than posting on PW, so no, we haven't been discussing things behind the scenes. And the problem was for everyone here, not just you, although you seem to be making it all about you.

[ironyak]

So you're not going to share it then? Or just waiting for everyone else to turn in their papers so you can use the Teacher's Guide to grade the results?

[kander]

The question tomk put fourth seemed like a subtle IQ test. Me only have one of about room temperature didn't want to play.

[TomK]

I'll share the answer when I feel like it. Please rant away in the meantime.