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TomK - Here's a tip - the actual answer, without Bayes, is 0.88.
Source where you stole this from? Show your own work? Or just ASSUME you are right?
"In God we trust. All others must bring data." W. Edwards Deming
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming
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Have fun posting tonight and all day tomorrow, ironyak. I gave a tip and have other things on my mind right now.
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You so silly Tom. And so fragile. And petty. Maybe you should be more careful what doors you open?
https://youtu.be/xpAvcGcEc0k?t=50
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quote:
Originally posted by TomK
Here's a tip - the actual answer, without Bayes, is 0.88.
.95X/(.9X+.05) Where X is percentage of population known to be positive, as a decimal. Not following how we get to .88 randomly yet.
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quote:
Originally posted by Durian Fiend
If that were true nationwide then the approximate death rate to date from Covid19 would be more in line with estimates for the flu, correct?
This is what the study is indicating. granted it was only antibody testing on about 3500 people. but it indicates that a lot more people have been exposed and have antibodies to the virus. This would be great news and also mean that we could be over this quicker than we will see a vaccine for it.
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you need to know the fraction of the population that is infected before giving an actual answer
You need to test the population before you know what fraction is infected.
https://xkcd.com/2295/
You need to test the population before you know what fraction is infected.
Testing? Are you still harping on testing? Shame on you.
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"If that were true nationwide then the approximate death rate to date from Covid19 would be more in line with estimates for the flu, correct?"
The absolute death rate or the CFR? Initially it seemed that Covid-19 was twice as contagious (R0 of 2.5 vs 1.2) and 10 times as deadly (CFR of more than 1% vs .1%) as the flue. We are now realizing that lots more people are getting infected. With the observed number of deaths and the revised number of infections you work backwards to calculate the revised CFR. We may end up realizing it is 10 times as infectious and twice as deadly as the flue but we will be no better off. The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.
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quote:
Originally posted by MarkP
The hospitals are overwhelmed either way and this is demonstrably worse than the flue.
Are they really? In NY the policies before Covid had many hospitals closed in the past decade and their current hospital situation was nearly maxed out and very few hospital beds available.
The rest of the country seems to to be doing fine as far as capacity. In fact some hospitals are having to lay people off because business is slow especially in the ER sections.
