wet, windy, cold, thunderstorm, snowy weather returning ?

[terracore]

Enjoy this sun break while you can!

https://www.weather.gov/hfo/AFD

"...By Saturday, a surface high will strengthen north of the state with trade winds speeds increasing once again to breezy and windy levels. The upper trough will continue to linger over the area resulting in the wet trade wind pattern continuing through at least Sunday.

This wet trade wind weather pattern will continue on into early next week as the trough aloft remains near the area and abundant low level moisture moves into the islands from the east. Trade winds will remain elevated as strong high pressure remains to our north."

[macuu222]

Sounds like a few trips to Kona are in order.

[terracore]

Yes, but you have to time it right:

"An upper trough will linger over the area throughout the forecast period. This will cause for a rather wet trade wind pattern setting up. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas with the trade winds sufficiently strong enough to blow some passing showers over to leeward areas at times."

[kalianna]

Harry Durgin's forecast: "Stormy conditions next week with epic rainfall totals expected along with high winds from the east. Some of the winds could cause power outages and road closures due to downed trees. Persistent rains likely to bring between 1 and 4 feet of rain to windward Big Island by the end of next week for some flooding problems. Heavy rain could continue into the following week too. This looks to be an historic event."

[ChunksterK]

Who is Harry Durgin?

[Obie]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/PunaWeather

[ChunksterK]

Oh, an amateur on Facebook.

Having said that, Weather Underground is predicting about a foot of rain over five days next week, which is at the lower end of Mr. Durgin's forecast range. It sounds like a lot, but it's not at all unheard of around here.

[kalianna]

True. We had a foot of rain just last week. In addition to being a darn good amateur meteorologist he's arguably the best photographer on the island IMHO.

[terracore]

Wunderground shows over 30 inches of rain between 3/6-3/14 and in my experience their forecast is substantially on the low side of what we receive at our farm, so estimating 4 feet of rain does seem about right.

Here's more:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HFO&issuedby=HFO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
333 AM HST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A high to the north will maintain breezy trade winds over the area
through the weekend. The trade winds are pushing remnants of a
front over the islands, focusing showers over mainly windward
areas. Rainfall may become heavier and more widespread as deeper
moisture spreads over the area from the southeast starting Sunday.
Next week, a new high may produce windy weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 mb surface high northwest of the main Hawaiian islands is producing
breezy northeast to east trade winds over the islands. Radars are showing
numerous showers moving over the islands from the northeast. These showers
are part of an old frontal band caught up in the trade winds. Breezy
trade winds will continue through the weekend. Windward areas will remain
rather wet with some showers spreading leeward on the smaller islands,
mainly during the nights and early mornings.

The global models are showing deeper moisture spreading over the islands
from the southeast starting on Sunday. It is too soon to know the details
of this developing pattern, but it looks as if rainfall will become
heavier and more widespread starting on the Big Island, then spreading
northwest over the other islands. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will
be possible on the Big Island with ice and snow over the upper elevations.

Moisture over the islands will subside by the middle of next week. High
pressure building far north of the area and a trough developing near
the islands may produce very windy weather through mid-week.

&&

[TomK]

Fog, ice and small snow flurries at the summit have just started tonight. We're expecting a major winter storm starting on Sunday with blizzards starting Monday/Tuesday into at least the middle of the week and perhaps longer. Thunderstorms are forecast to start late Sunday so we're preparing for a major weather event.

All I can say is expect power outages in the next few days.