Decline in Real Estate

[John S. Rabi]

"I want to make peace with both you and Rabi." You mean we were at war?!

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185

[Mahiai]

War begins with 'W'

[Jared I]

Watermelon begins with W, so does white, willow, warren, wear, waffle, wheat, wire, wood, warped, window and whistle.

This is fun!

Lets do "Z" next... I have always like the word zamboni

[haoleboy]

How about "Zombience"? That starts with a Z.
When we're done with z's can we go back to A's.

Aloha starts with A!

Aloha
Richwhiteboy

"I’m not here for your amusement. You’re here for mine."- John Lydon

[Mahiai]

War begins with 'W' as in George 'W' Bush also known as M as in moron or R as in retard.

It was a great election wasn't it? Time to prosecute him for war crimes too!

Quote: 'The constitution is just a god damn piece of paper' - George 'W' Bush

[Beachboy]

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Well, you guys are right, I can't win against the bystander conspiracy theory. Isn't it great that now I am even labeled not honest by someone I never even met?! Well, bystander, I can tell you something, "CRB" is management designation and the class I was referring to was for managers and not sales people. The class was conducted by Mr. Brewbaker who is the Chief Economist of Bank of Hawaii. Yeah, he is part of the conspiracy too, huh?

"So tell me this: if property values keep going down will you and your RE cohorts be making more or less money?" I have seen both soft and heated markets more than once since I am in the business. Neither one had a major effect on my income. In fact, even though we are told by bystander experts that the real estate market is tanking, my company already had more gross income in 10 months this year than all last year. Good companies excell regardless of the market conditions.

"This is what I think will happen. The bubble won't burst all at once but will deflate like a tire with a slow leak for years to come. Every year will bring slightly lower prices than the last until we reach the bottom. Buyers will buy thinking the bottom has been reached but prices will keep going exruciatingly lower year after year." Yep, I am sure it's correct. Prices will reach zero! Sellers actually will end up giving away their properties free and some even will throw in incentives too!

Sorry guys, IMHO, this thread really is getting to be a free entertainment!


Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,PB,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
75-5870 Walua Road, Suite 101
Kailua-Kona, HI 96740
(808)327-3185

Edited by - John S. Rabi on 11/16/2006 13:11:58

Edited by - John S. Rabi on 11/16/2006 13:17:36

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Now you're the one providing me with some entertainment. Did I ever say prices are going to zero? If declining prices don't matter to you, why do you keep posting in this thread?

I take back what I said about Dirgo being more honest than you. You really believe in what you say, that prices will keep going higher until they reach the moon. Dirgo on the otherhand has the honesty of a politician. He acknowledges that prices have come down but tries to downplay it as much as he can. But you both are blind to your own biases. First you deny that there has been any decline in prices. Then you say the decline is just a temporary phase. After that that declining prices won't really matter because sales will remain high, like in the Aesop's fable of the fox and the grapes.

The topic of this thread is "Decline in Real Estate". Putting emotions aside, what do you think will really happen? I think they will keep going down gradually but I don't say this with any glee or happiness, and no I don't think they will go down to zero. A deline of 40% from the peak seems very plausible though.

Rabi, your opinion is that the recent decline is completely temporary and prices will go back up and increase at the same rates they were rising at before, over 100% annually?





Edited by - bystander on 11/20/2006 10:27:23

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the housing market/Real Estate has had a history of "peaks & valleys". But never before this time has housing been so profoundly tied the national economy! Our housing situation could be worse than it is. Currently there are no signs of the bottom being anywhere in sight! Some of you don't wanna hear that, but it's the truth!

I'll be the first to tell you this gloom also, we shouldn't fear Radical Islam. Who we should fear is the largest economy in the world, who happens to be a Communist country to boot...CHINA!?!? Since Bush has decided to push us back in Reaganomics, China now has us(America) by the short hairs. China's holdings of is one trillion, most of it in US treasureys. If China decides to stop buying our debt, our interest rates could shoot up as high as 10-15- 20% China is also holding up the already weak housing market up in this country too. China is buying less treasurey debt these days and buying more mortgage debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So to some extent, China is holding up this already weak housing market. China has a hand in keeping mortgages down right now in America because they are buying up all our debt. That's the beauty of Reaganomics.....it SUCKS! We become very vulnurable, China holds $327.7billion of our debt. Thanks president Bush

[Nate SC]

China is not stupid business wise. as long as we keep buying all that crap from Walmart we will continue to be China's best customer. You are not going to "get rid" of your best customer. What may happen is the same thing that happened to Japan. They learned the hard way that no matter how much money you pump into the US real estate market, when it's all said and done you cant take it back to Japan with you...it stays here. China is going to get caught up in the currency games they play with the devaluation they do to make products cheaper here. Watch China closely,,they are running out of everything and a hungry man wont stay hungry for long.

[Rose C]

We looked at several homes this last Tuesday and one renter of a house we looked at told us someone else had been there just before us. At another home we were told that three people had looked at the home that day. It sure doen't seem that there is a lack of interest in the real estate on the East side.

Rose C

[Beachboy]

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We looked at several homes this last Tuesday and one renter of a house we looked at told us someone else had been there just before us. At another home we were told that three people had looked at the home that day. It sure doen't seem that there is a lack of interest in the real estate on the East side.

Rose C

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no of course not Rose. Housing in Hawaii has always been in demand. But don't you find it a bit stranger seeing all those empty brand new homes in the subdivisions? Funny, but if you go to a place like Lahaina Maui, or even Honolulu to some extent housing is a problem(supply & demand).

All I'm saying is watch out! The Bush people want you to think the economy is super robust at this time. Allowing the Chinese to buy up a chunk of our debt makes it look like our economy is moving forth. Our economy is moving forward only because of Americans love of plastic!!!

Bush is playing a dangerous game with the lives of the middle class America. China, at any given time can cripple our economy..

[Kapohocat]

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...Housing in Hawaii has always been in demand. But don't you find it a bit stranger seeing all those empty brand new homes in the subdivisions?...

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On a completely different train of thought - I saw way too many developers building dozens of "track houses"... one developer i worked with came in and did 6 houses in HPP - same house each time, another did 4 houses same floor plan in HPP again... Why do most of the people on this site know exactly what you are referring to if you say "it's a 1056"?

I think buyers are a bit more discriminating that given credit for - John Rabi's house in leilani as an example has some nice touches added - just from a drive by view, or the builder who does all the cedar houses...

If you can find 30 brand new 1056 houses in HPP that all have the same floor plan - or 1 house that is somewhat custom - or 1 fixer upper with good bones - what are you going to plunk your $$$,$$$ down on?



Catherine Dumond
Blue Water Project Management
808 217-7578
http://bluewaterpm.125mb.com/index.html
"We help make building your dream home a reality"