Mauna Loa erupting

[Obie]

[attachment=154][attachment=154]From this map it looks like the flow is going to turn toward the homeless camp.

[MyManao]

the flow is going to..

Today as I was clicking through the general suite of data points, I started to sense something fundamental has changed, suggesting maybe the eruption is winding down, or, at least changing? Here is the data that I am interpreting to say as much..

From.. https://www.usgs.gov/media/webcams/m8cam...-live-view

Is a picture of the fissure 3 eruption I would have included, but the forum only allows for two images to be embedded in a given post so leave it linked above..

The fountaining in the pic, at the time of this writing, appears to not be as high or vigorous as in days past. This morning that fountain looks sluggish by comparison to any other time in the past.

But that alone is not enough to speak of trends and such. It could be a few hours of activity taken out of a larger context, yet instrumentally maybe there’s something to back it up.. 

First a look at the summit tilt..

From.. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...LT-1wk.png



With its spike (recording a 3.48 magnitude earthquake at the summit) late on the night of12/05 that has tapered off and since is almost flat.

And a similar change seen in the GPS vertical component, ie showing a slowing down in the rate of change, especially between the last few data points over what has been seen in days past..

From.. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...1yr_up.png


As does the change in distance across the summit caldera show signs of slowing.. although not as graphically as the data set above. I leave it to be seen on HVO' side because of the picture limit here..

From.. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/captures/...t_year.png

All combined I think, sense, they suggest if not a slowing down of the eruption at least slower changes in the magma body being observed when compared to earlier periods. To make it even more interesting there is not a corresponding change in the tremor. so the change could reflect something other than lava production rates. And, of course all this is preliminary, and only the first in what would need to be a series of changes to be enough to draw any kind of conclusion from. But still, it’s fun to observe, and speculate..

*Keep in mind, the graphics embedded in this post are dynamic, directly linked to their HVO source, and as such will change over time, and eventually no longer track the narrative of this post.

[ironyak]

Can you point to the part in your link about not building the DKI slightly north and uphill of its current position at the old Mauna Kea Access Road junction?

This has been asked and answered multiple times already (it helps to actually read the thread before posting)

But when the road was put it, it was placed on the 1935-6 flow because that was easier for making a road and when pavement was added and the highway expanded the road's path was used because it too was the most efficient option at the time (especially given the legal landscape of the area)

The reasons why the DKI was constructed over the 1843 and 1935 lava flows by Puu Huluhulu is two fold. They wanted to keep the alignment within the existing right of way so HHL homesteads wouldn't be impacted and lessen the environmental impact. The latter is largely the reason  most of the rest of the highway followed the existing alignment.

These answers mirror the 1999 Saddle Road Final EIS summary for Section III which includes this section of road (pdf - page 53)
"No reasonable or prudent alternatives to the existing road corridor (EX-3) were identified within Section III because of the need to minimize impacts to adjacent environments. [...] No other alternatives were available which would provide such minimal resource impacts [as the existing ROW], therefore all alternatives on relocated corridors were immediately discounted." If you want a better look at the possible alternatives rejected, you'll need the Draft EIS from 1997 (not currently online?).

As already mapped out, the entire length of Saddle Road sits in Mauna Loa inundation zones, with the eastern portions being directly on recent flows from 1843, 1935-6, 1899, 1855, and 1880-1 from top to bottom. Combined with the DHHL status of the land to the north and north-east of the road at the MK Access Road intersection such as TMK 380010070000, please explain where is this safe path you think "some genius road engineer" missed so that it is not "in a place where the next Mauna Loa eruption on the NE rift zone will cut the highway off"?

It's pretty rich for anyone in Puna to just ignore the money, history, politics, and property involved in the situation and question why someone would choose to build where lava tends to flow. Talk about casting pearls before swine calling the kettle black from a glass house, or something

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the flow is going to..

Today as I was clicking through the general suite of data points, I started to sense something fundamental has changed, suggesting maybe the eruption is winding down, or, at least changing? ...

USGS is also reporting "New breakout upslope to east is robbing #lava from main channel ~2.8 mi behind front of main flow."
which can be seen on today's map making the advance towards Saddle slowing to below 20ft per hour.

Slower/lower flow rate causing the channel to cool and back-up & overflow? But where is the drop in tremor? Have to keep watching to find out I guess, but the live cam is offline for now; however, new links should post here according to USGS.
https://www.youtube.com/usgs/live

Edit: Another new cam now at the flow front gives an idea as to the conditions along the Old Saddle lava viewing route.
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/m...-lava-flow

[My 2 cents]

There will be a breach.  That's as far out as my limb goes.

USGS is also reporting "New breakout upslope to east is robbing #lava from main channel ~2.8 mi behind front of main flow."

What do I win?

[TomK]

The reason why I presume the DKI wasn't moved  mauka by Maunakea Access Road intersection is because the land is controlled  by the Department of Hawaiian Homelands. It would've been difficult, even more so now, to re-align the highway on to these lands. The homesteaders would be up in arms.

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Some Defense funding was used specifically because of PTA's needs and uses, which makes sense IMO, but also state DOT funds, and federal DOT TIGER grants, etc. Modern standards come with a price tag.

This has a pretty good review on the considerations given and work done for each section of the project that were outlined above.
https://geometricianassociates.com/proje...extension/

Dr. Ron Terry, the principal behind Geometrician Associates, was in involved the environmental studies necessary to realign/reconstruct Saddle Road from Mamalahoa Highway to Puainako Street Extension.

Thanks, Aaron. there's an ongoing discussion about emergency access to the summit going on right now and the DHHL is involved, but there's a bit of confusion about what will happen due to the recent elections. Hopefully, it will be sorted out by the end of this week. Bear in mind this access to the summit assumes the Mauna Kea Access Road gets closed at the junction with DKI and alternative routes allow everyone access to Mauna Kea.

[AaronS]

Thanks, Aaron. there's an ongoing discussion about emergency access to the summit going on right now and the DHHL is involved, but there's a bit of confusion about what will happen due to the recent elections. Hopefully, it will be sorted out by the end of this week. Bear in mind this access to the summit assumes the Mauna Kea Access Road gets closed at the junction with DKI and alternative routes allow everyone access to Mauna Kea.













William Aila's term as the head of the DHHL ends on December 31st. The new administration has to select a new head of HHL, which may slow discussion of alternative access to Maunakea down.

The logical access is establishing a temporary jeep trail starting behind the Maunkea County Park and follow the HECO transmission lines that ends up by Maunakea access road.

[Durian Fiend]

Good news this AM from USGS:

“Activity Summary:
The Northeast Rift Zone eruption of Mauna Loa continues with a major change overnight. The fissure 3 (F3) vent continues to erupt but the supply of lava appears to be much reduced this morning. Lava is overtopping channels near the vent with flows extending no farther than 2.5 mi (4 km) from the vent. The channels below this point appear drained of lava and probably no longer feed the main flow front. “

[MyManao]

Good news this AM from USGS..

Yep, and if you go back up to my last post in which I noted the onset of these changes, with those plots of the deformation which are refreshed when you reload the page, you'll note the summit, as measured by the tilt, is actually inflating. 

The higher fountains, as seen this morning in some webcam views, is larger amounts of gas venting, which carries the lava higher into the air, but doesn't necessarily mean higher volumes of lava erupting..

[dobanion]

I'll go with a fresh intrusion of magma from the depths hit the reservoir, driving the inflation on the chart, and the obviously higher fountaining.

Sounds like the flow itself diverted so it's a reset of sorts. Can't wait to see it after dark and clear skies.

[ironyak]

There will be a breach.  That's as far out as my limb goes.

USGS is also reporting "New breakout upslope to east is robbing #lava from main channel ~2.8 mi behind front of main flow."

What do I win?

An intact high-speed cross-island highway and all the cheap hotdogs and rotisserie chickens you desire! (Message brought to you by Costco and the MLO - both soon to be recording new record highs!)