2023 Pacific Hurricane forecast: "heightened risks for Mexico and Hawaii."

[ChunksterK]

" . . . dry for the next one, two or 3 weeks." Now that's what I call hedging your bet by "predicting" with a variance of three times from minimum to maximum duration. And only in Puna would three dry weeks be considered a drought.

[Durian Fiend]

" . . . dry for the next one, two or 3 weeks."  Now that's what I call hedging your bet by "predicting" with a variance of three times from minimum to maximum duration.  And only in Puna would three dry weeks be considered a drought.

It's very difficult to forecast beyond about 10 days.  Sometimes there is a strong signal for a change in weather within two weeks, in which case a forecaster could be a bit bolder!  The take way for me was that there is a decent chance it will be relatively dry for the next three weeks.

  3 weeks of dry-maybe more?  There are a few other places I can think of where that would be considered unusually dry, either this time of year in particular or for another season.

[terracore]

This is the worst. Drought. Ever.

[kalianna]

Ha! I forgot about this. Yeah, itʻs so dry that our new catchment captured 6000 gallons of water in five days. And our visitors fled to the Kona side.

[terracore]

Hey... good news on your new tank filling up though!

Honestly, I could use a short break from the precipitation. The extended forecast doesn't look promising.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

From this thread a few pages back, posted in mid December:

forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April­–June 2024

It appears we’re in the 38% chance of the dry weather not lasting until April.

[Durian Fiend]

March is typically the second wettest month of the year for Hilo. The NOAA 90 day forecast will be updated in about a week.
In February they were sticking with the 60% chance of below normal precipitation through May.

[terracore]

I think I'm to blame. If I hadn't had our leaking catchment tank liner replaced the drought would have continued.

I guess I'm looking at this with the "catchment tank half empty" point of view. If we never had the drought, I wouldn't have known about the leak until it got worse.

[terracore]

Drought map:

[AinaAKai]

Why don't we start a 2024 hurricane thread instead of using this old busted thread?