There are now 20 brand new homes for sale in HPP.

[Punatang]

I'll bet that by next week the talking heads will be floating the idea of a rate increase. - tang

Well, we didn't even have to wait until next week.  Better wear a chain mail glove if you are buying into this market...


'Hedge The Tails' - Goldman Sees Financial Conditions Tightening As Rate-HIKE Possibility Rises

SUNDAY, APR 21, 2024 - 10:20 AM

Authored by Rikin Shah and Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli via Goldman Sachs Global Banking ^ & Markets,
THE US ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM...

Core retail sales rising 1.1% in March strongly outperformed consensus and adds to the onslaught of strong US data on both the activity and inflation front.

GIR is now tracking 3.1% for Q1 GDP and the big question is, are current policy rates restrictive?

Non-farm payroll numbers continue to print far above estimated breakeven levels (even after adjusting for immigration), and optically lower YoY inflation readings on the back of supportive base effects have been offset by a combination of slowing progress on the rent/OER front and a re-acceleration in core services.
With an expected core PCE path that fails to fall sustainably below 2.5% this year, recent commodity price moves and growth arguably above potential, if one did not check the absolute level of policy rates it is not clear that the next policy adjustment would be a cut.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

Schrödingers Rate Cut Cat

Until the next Fed meeting, or the one after that, or after that, both a rate cut and a rate increase can exist in the box.

[Punatang]

Excellent point and well made.

The FED, historicaly, raises rates until something breaks. Inflation is still above target. Nothing has broken yet. Our 5 rate cuts this year that they "promised" us, aren't coming this year, so it's feline like more price cuts to me.  Either way, the cost of housing has to come down.

[ChunksterK]

Interesting op-ed piece on this topic at Civil Beat today:

https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/04/hawaii...expensive/

This was written by a developer who can in no way be unbiased, but some of what he says about the departure of the Hawaii real estate market from normal economic restraints is spot on. Pay particular interest to what he says about outside buyers distorting the market. In my part of HPP, more than a few of those speculatively built houses have been bought by mainlanders, sometimes without even seeing them in person. Imagine their surprise to find a rooster farm next door. Does anyone know if sellers would be required to disclose rooster farms? Since most of the Puna subdivisions are zoned agricultural, I suspect not.

[kalakoa]

I have long thought that the realities of "agricultural" zoning should be disclosed -- not just the rooster farms, but the substandard roads, lack of utilities, homeowner's associations that don't add value, etc. This goes nowhere simply because there's money to be made.

[kalianna]

I lived in a nasty neighborhood in LA and CA has very explicit disclosure laws. When I asked our real estate agent how to deal with the weekend-long parties, roosters, fireworks, loud drunk nextdoor, etc., and she said disclose everything. There was a whole series of boxes to check and we checked them all. She said it was common practice. For two years I waited for the new owners to sue us but nothing ever happened. Now it's all gentrified and our old house is worth more than a million dollars. Go figure.

[terracore]

Interesting op-ed piece on this topic at Civil Beat today:

https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/04/hawaii...expensive/

This was written by a developer who can in no way be unbiased, but some of what he says about the departure of the Hawaii real estate market from normal economic restraints is spot on.  Pay particular interest to what he says about outside buyers distorting the market.  In my part of HPP, more than a few of those speculatively built houses have been bought by mainlanders, sometimes without even seeing them in person.  Imagine their surprise to find a rooster farm next door.  Does anyone know if sellers would be required to disclose rooster farms?  Since most of the Puna subdivisions are zoned agricultural, I suspect not.

  
I think he makes a lot of valid points, but they are mostly applicable to the smaller islands.

One of his statements: "And Gov. Josh Green recently reported there are 89,000 short-term rentals throughout the state. And “52% of all STRs are owned by non-state residents, with 27% owning 20 units or more.” .....For quick relief, Gov. Green should sign an emergency proclamation relating to housing that would put a moratorium on all STRs and return them to the long-term housing market."

I think this misses the point.  If Gangrene puts a moratorium on STRs the deeper pockets don't go away, a lot of them will become long term rentals.  That might help the LTR market but it doesn't necessarily improve local home ownership.  Investment firms are buying housing to rent all over the country.  The CRE market is trashed so they've moved on.  Oahu is in an unusual situation where renting a property is frequently less expensive than buying one (from a monthly payment point of view) so they have a ready pool of renters to exploit.

[terracore]

 Does anyone know if sellers would be required to disclose rooster farms?  Since most of the Puna subdivisions are zoned agricultural, I suspect not.

There is not a SPECIFIC disclosure pertaining to roosters but it falls under the nuisance / noise disclosure.  Of course even if someone did their due diligence and bought a home with no rooster farms nearby, their neighbor could always start one, or one could move in.  If somebody doesn't want to hear any rooster noises, they should live in neighborhood with CC&Rs that prohibit them, one with an active trapping / hunting program for the ferals, or perhaps choose to live in another state.  We had a rooster farm about 6 or 8 lots away and it was never as loud as the untethered ferals that woke me this morning.

---

I'll bet that by next week the talking heads will be floating the idea of a rate increase. - tang

Well, we didn't even have to wait until next week.  Better wear a chain mail glove if you are buying into this market...


'Hedge The Tails' - Goldman Sees Financial Conditions Tightening As Rate-HIKE Possibility Rises

The FED's job is to keep the ponzi economy going for as long as possible funneling trillions to the 1%.  If that means lying about rate cuts when they know that isn't possible, then that is what they are going to do.  The Federal Reserve is a consortium of private banks thinly disguised as a public/private "partnership".  The same ones that lobby (bribe) politicians.  Imagine the scum and villainy they are capable of when they usually get to skip the bribery step.

[leilanidude]

Came across this one and nearly choked on my coffee.

488sf, built in 2022, unpermitted and against HOA bylaws.
$289,000

Leilani_house_for_sale

[Obie]

IT's got a 72 inch ceiling fan.