Hawaii Tourism Cool Down Looms - good or bad?

[Punatang]

Deciding the proper thread for this was a struggle. Since we were discussing Canadians here recently and debating the good or bad of change, this seemed like as good of a spot as any.  Both travel and real estate are addressed. The article linked below is not solely about Hawaii but it does include Hawaii. Hopefully that passes the litmus test.  One of the quotes below is from an AZ Realtor about the Arizona market. Please forgive my inclusion of the quote but I felt that the totality of the article inferred that we very likely have, or will have, a similar dynamic and that it's integral to the point being made.

"Canadians spent close to $6 billion on U.S. real estate from April 2023 to March 2024 - making up 13% of all foreign transactions - more than any other nationality, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Nearly half of the homes purchased by Canadians were for vacation purposes, with Florida, Arizona and Hawaii ranking as the top markets."

"Canadian return flights from the U.S. fell 13.5% in March from a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. Canadian-resident return trips by automobile fell about 32%. Real estate is now facing a similar pullback in demand."

"Laurie Lavine... told Reuters that he currently has 18 listings from Canadians looking to sell, compared with the usual two to four per quarter.
Trade friction and the current weakness of the Canadian dollar are also contributing to the pullback"

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/m...025-04-22/


This could help put additional downward pressure on housing costs so that more of our young individuals and families can stay here in Hawaii JMO.

[MyManao]

This could help put additional downward pressure on housing costs so that more of our young individuals and families can stay here in Hawaii..

I think that's a nice sentiment, but in practical terms, and because Hawaii's attractive to money, I think any void created is likely to be filled by others that aren't as effected by economic trends. In other words the locals lose no matter. Though I would really like your ideas to prove to be the rule of the day.

I also question if we're in a downturn. I am kinda maybe oh well you know thinking something a little more dramatic is afoot. Those Canadians in your shared article.. I think they represent a trickle to the flood that's about to be unleashed. Literally Noah build the frickin' ark already.

And, I too hope not to overstep the district boundaries, but have been flabbergasted by the implications, to Hawaii, to every one of us, of an article that focuses on international shipping and points out with stark facts just how bad it's about to get. That article basically says shipping between China and the US is collapsing now.. over the next few weeks..

So.. downturn seems a bit tame methinks. Like really, what is the effect of empty shelves in Hilo?

[leilanidude]

B&Bs etc can pretty much name their price and get it. If they rented this week at the going rate, they’d make as much as they’d get in three maybe four months for a long term lease.
----------
I have a friend in Hilo who rents his house out for a month every year for MM and they use that as vacation money and take a trip.

[ironyak]

MyManao - been flabbergasted by the implications, to Hawaii, to every one of us, of an article that focuses on international shipping and points out with stark facts just how bad it's about to get. That article basically says shipping between China and the US is collapsing now.. over the next few weeks.. Like really, what is the effect of empty shelves in Hilo?

Going to depend on which shelves are empty of course, but if tariffs continue/unpause, supply chains will break similar to sharp downturns during the worst of COVID it seems. Probably a bit late to build the ark (best to prepare before the flood) but basically a large number of things are going to get more expensive, and less available, and therefore yet more expensive, etc... Signs of the impacts are just starting to be felt locally.

Consumers in Hawaii prepare for tariffs’ impact (my highlights)
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2025/04/2...fs-impact/
...
Stephen, 65, regularly buys the condiment [fish sauce] and will continue to do so even though her eyes have bulged in recent weeks as she’s seen the price rise to $9.99 from $5.99 at her usual Asian grocery store in Chinatown.

Outside of Chinatown, Stephen said she’s seen fish sauce cost $11.99.
...
The jaw-dropping prices are bound to increase even more for Hawaii consumers if President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariff on nearly all foreign imports continue.

While businesses have already been hit hard by the international trade war, the impact has only just begun to trickle down to local customers and visitors, who will ultimately have to pay more to keep the businesses alive, according to Justin Tyndall, an associate professor at University of Hawaii’s Economic Research Organization.

Right now, he said, it’s hard to quantify the exact toll that the tariffs will take on Hawaii’s consumers as many businesses are still squeezing inventory that was purchased and shipped before the levies went into effect.
...
Trump’s tariffs have made customers hesitant to purchase investment goods like furniture and cars. The Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association said Hawaii auto sales have been down 1.3% since January.

Chamber of Commerce Hawaii President and CEO Sherry Menor-McNamara said businesses have told her that customers are already stocking up or limiting their spending on more essential goods.
...
But trickle-down costs might hit Hawaii consumers harder because even locally produced goods depend on foreign manufacturing, and the state does not have the bandwidth to support mega-­factories found in parts of the mainland.
...
With goods directly imported from China, Vietnam and some Southeast Asian countries, Maunakea Marketplace is a staple of Honolulu’s Chinatown. The food court and merchant courtyard is a pit stop for many locals and tourists passing through, including mom and dad Holly and Chris Durham and daughter Lydia Durham, 16, who came to Hawaii on a family vacation from South Carolina.
...
Still, visitors from the mainland are affected by the rising costs just as much as their isle counterparts, which could cause some to limit how much they are willing to spend while on vacation.
...
Hawaii businesses say they are noticing similar shifts in consumer behavior. According to a recent survey by the Chamber of Commerce Hawaii, 40% of local businesses reported a drop in “customer demand or purchasing behavior.”
...
Bargaining is a common practice in Chinatown, but Stephen is striking fewer deals. In today’s economy, she said, cutting prices isn’t sustainable for business.
...
While bargaining for lower prices is a tradition for some, more customers these days might find it a necessity. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement that consumer sentiment was down 11% since March and 30% since December.
...
Sam Hasan, Honolulu’s Elite Discount Furniture store manager, said, “We’ve seen at least 20% (of customer flow) go down. That’s at least as of right now, without raising prices up. Imagine when the prices go up higher.”

Elite Discount Furniture, which also has locations in Aiea and Kaneohe, has not increased its prices yet, but Hasan said that already, fewer people have been buying home products overall.
...
In the meantime Waipahu’s ABC Furniture owner Ronald Chong is taking matters into his own hands by gradually increasing prices by 10%.

He nearly had to shut down after the first Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports in 2018.
(more at link)

[MyManao]

Going to depend on which shelves are empty of course..

I get the feeling 'made in China' ain't the only stuff going to be disrupted..

If China stuff don't get to the dock in Los Angeles in the same quantity or timing then Matson's scheduling is going to be effected, and they aren't going to be happy about trips from there to here with half empty ships, so they'll cut a ship out of the system.. which in turn is going to put Young Bros in a pickle.. and they'll adjust.. and the dominos will fall.. as we.. at the very end of that chain will have our's disrupted too. So.. even if it's made in America it's going to be different and may not be in stock as often..

My immediate concern is the initial disruption. In a day or two this kind of idea is going to spread across the state.. and as with all threats of shipping pilikia I suspect we'll see TP disappear in short order. Yeah, I know it ain't made in China, but when has the Hawaii consumer ever been rational? For real.. dock probs mean TP shortages.. it's a Hawaii thing.

For me, the reaction was simple.. I went and did an extra shopping trip. I don't know the TP, or the special sauce, or where does this stuff really come from, I just figured I'd put one more increment of stuff in the pantry and not worry about it otherwise.

One more increment.. 

Before Covid if I was running low on something it'd go on the list for next time in town.. with Covid I started having an extra dose of stuff, so when I was running low on the second to last of something I'd put it on the list.. in that way I created a small buffer between the calamity of the streets and my home life. Then, at some point I jumped that to two. Now, last weekend, I went out and bought a third of everything.. three packages of.. and will go back to watching all this as entertainment.. oh look ma they wiggle.. and hope I have enough staples to round out any fluctuations.. and still be able to make pizzas (remember how flour disappeared during covid?) when I want..

[ironyak]

Yeah, Matson's stock getting hammered recently (earnings call next week) - unclear IMO how all the disruptions shake out (tangles in all shipping like you said, massive shifts in traffic to lower tariffed countries, or vast excess capacity - a luau buffet of problems to sample from while watching people in the spotlight try to juggle fire).

That Apollo analysis going around has lots of interesting graphs and a timeline on slide 4 that is attention grabbing:

April 2 - Liberation day tariffs: Container departures from China to the US slowing rapidly
... 20-40 days containership transit time ...
Early May/Mid May: Containerships to US ports come to a stop
... 1-10 days truck/rail transit time to cities ...
Mid May/Late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt
... Empty shelves and companies respond to lower sales ...
Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industry
--> Summer 2025: Recession

It feels like there is some underlying hope/expectation floating about that this outcome won't happen as it can largely be averted with a single decision (unlike with 2020 or 2008). Who knows though? Politicians can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

As for stocking up, adding some extra of everything is never a bad idea, but even the deepest pantries only have so much shelf space. Need to get out and get those jicama in the ground. Hopefully kalianna will trade some apocalypse potatoes for low, but not ideal, CO2-eq goat milk if it all comes to that. :)

[kalianna]

Deal. Apocalypse special: no charge for nematodes.

[randomq]

Apparently even if a China deal is made soon there will still be a "supply shock" and we are likely to see COVID style empty shelves and a huge jump in inflation.

I'm sure people paying 10-145% more on everything will decide it's a great time to go on an expensive Hawaii vacation!

[Punatang]

Hopefully this will at least be another nudge toward further diversification of the Hawaii economy.  

It is encouraging to see the government skepticism here and the resulting motivation to become more self-sufficient through networking, small scale agriculture and prepping (not hoarding). https://www.survivalpunk.com/prepping-vs...isode-392/

The poster shares this link solely for informational purposes. No claims are made regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the content, nor about the views or credentials of the authors. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

[HereOnThePrimalEdge]

jaw-dropping prices are bound to increase even more for Hawaii consumers if… 145% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariff on nearly all foreign imports continue

Temu has already started showing “import cost” on their receipts, and there’s talk that Amazon will do the same.  Transparency on purchases would seem to be a good idea, I like to see where my money is going and we already list Hawai’i Excise Tax as a separate item on receipts here.  Today however, there’s been pushback and threats against companies that would like to conduct business this way, although they are “private enterprise.”

Why would those implementing these surcharges not want you to see how much extra you’re paying? If you buy a drill from Home Depot, a 2x4 from HPM, or fish sauce from KTA, wouldn’t you want to see that it’s not the store raising prices?

Don’t these threats against transparency and disclosure on invoices  and receipts show some level of dishonesty toward people who were told exporters would foot the bill, not consumers?  If Hawai’i voters voted for someone else to pay for tariffs, shouldn’t they see that’s not the case every time they shop in Hilo or Pahoa or online?