Hilo, are you ready?!

[John S. Rabi]

Very very very interesting article by Howard Dicus in the Pacific Business News. http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stori...rial3.html

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"

[Lin W]

You'll have to cut and paste (if that's allowed on this board) -- following the link you gave gives this message: "This article is for Paid Print Subscribers ONLY."

too soon old, too late smart

[John S. Rabi]

Pacific Business News (Honolulu) - July 20, 2007by Howard Dicus

I want to make a prediction.

In 10 years, when most affluent Mainland baby boomers who want to retire to Hawaii already have bought their condos, the next big thing in Hawaii real estate will be Honolulu kamaaina forsaking Oahu for Neighbor Island locales, chief among them Hilo.


Two trends persuade me this will happen.

First, growth has changed Honolulu so much even thirty-somethings talk about the good old days when traffic wasn't so bad. The H-1/H-2 merge was in the middle of nowhere, remember?

Second, growth in Neighbor Island cities, equally dismaying to the folks who already live there, is leading to more services, more shopping and more entertainment options, making those towns more appealing to Oahuans who are used to such things.

This is about finite space and expanding population, not just a Hawaii problem but a global one, though it's easier to see on an island, and the paradise lost aspect is more painful when one actually lives in one.

To consider this dispassionately, let's review some national figures first.

U.S. population, 100 million in 1920, reached 200 million in 1970, and 300 million last fall. It has doubled since my childhood. If your teen music faves were Nirvana and Pearl Jam, the population has grown a fourth in your lifetime. Kurt Cobain wouldn't recognize today's traffic in Seattle.

Growth has been slower in Honolulu due to the flight to the Mainland of people who would rather have a big house in Henderson than a back house in Kapahulu. Still, the population of Honolulu, 50,000 in 1910 (then more than San Diego, Phoenix or Sacramento) reached 250,000 during the 1950s, 300,000 in the 1960s, and 400,000 in the 1990s. Yes: a third more people since Elvis was here.

The Big Island today has a population of about 150,000, roughly equal to the population of Oahu just before World War II. Hilo alone has more than 40,000 residents with a lot of people living outside the county seat but driving into town for their shopping and entertainment.


Of course, in our own minds, where we evaluate quality of life, we don't refer to census figures. We measure how big a city is, and how small, by how bad the traffic is on a normal day, how much hassle a blocked road can create, to what extent "everybody knows everybody," and, on the other side of the coin, how many shopping options there are and what kind of cultural life a town has.

Hilo still has an Old Hawaii ethos. But it has big shopping centers and most of the key retail chains that Honoluluans are used to. It is one of the few Neighbor Island towns with a few alternate routes for getting around. It has a nice University of Hawaii campus offering four-year degrees. It has all the requisite coffee, book and clothing chains, but it also has a wonderful farmer's market.


Hilo citizens already are doing everything necessary to make their town attractive for Oahuans seeking a return to an old-fashioned community feel -- it's what they're doing for themselves, nurturing local theater and music, supporting a wider selection of retail, and lobbying for better health care.

The reason I haven't mentioned other Neighbor Island cities is that for psychographic reasons I don't think these areas will be as attractive to Honolulu ex-pats. They won't move to Kauai, Kona or Kihei if they think it will put them amongst Californians who don't get it.

(If I had to guess whether any other Neighbor Island city might come to be seen as an alternative to Honolulu, it would be Lihue, partly because so many émigrés to Kauai live in Princeville or Koloa and partly because the mana on Kauai is such that many malihini seem to try to change themselves instead of trying to change their environment, thus fitting in faster.)

It would be awful if a bunch of Honoluluans messed up Hilo by moving there. But with a finite amount of new housing it could come instead of an influx of Californians who, however nice, might have more personal transformation to go through before they are one with the Hiloverse.





Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"

[Kapohocat]

You know I wrote out this whole rant about this then decided, we have Pele on our "side". She'll either accept the growth or throw wide open the fissures. Either way its progress.

[JerryCarr]

This is already happening. A congenial kama'aina couple from Oahu just bought and moved into the house across the road from Bear and me. (The house had been on the market 15 months and sold for $59,000 less than the original asking price.) They told us that for what they made off their house on Oahu they were able to buy a house here for themselves and one for their daughter with enough money left to pay for both families' moving expenses and then some.

The first thing they did was cut down all the trees in front of the house, even mature fruit bearers. Now they are looking for somebody to bulldoze all the ohias behind the house. Say they want a really big lawn. I suggested that they could have a really big lawn and still leave a lot of ohias in the back, seeing as how they have a whole acre. That produced a blank stare. Other than their urge to cut down every tree in sight, they are nice.

[missydog1]

yes, I think this makes a lot of sense.

Some of the incentive to come here is set up by the current market, and I also hear from people who have for many years planned to retire from Oahu to Hilo.

One of my research things I do when I look at property is look at who owns vacant lots adjacent to the one I might buy, reason being that I'm looking for signs of imminent construction next door (on a 15,000 foot lot that will be loud) ... and I always notice the owner's address -- in Hilo, the majority of the empty parcels I looked at had an owner with an Oahu address if not a Big Island address. Many were owned by trusts, and no doubt quite a few are investments, but still.

If one looks at Puna TMK's, many more mainland owners, except the vacant land that hasn't sold since the '90's often has an Oahu owner (if not a Hilo owner).

In the past I am aware from talking to people in Hilo that there was a bit of the opposite flow. For example, the family that built my kama'aina home in Hilo eventually sold it when the mother became elderly and wished to be on Oahu in proximity to better medical care and services.

I also think a lot of Hilo raised boys and girls who moved away to pursue jobs would like to come back. We had potential buyers for our house who were like that and had been in the military abroad and were now retiring.

We also had buyers from Maui looking. Hilo looks real good to some of the folks who are sick of the Maui prices and the Maui scene.

Oddly enough, our actual buyer was from lower Puna, but the object was to find a family home for family members who were renting and working in Hilo.

[Mitzi M]

quote:

---

The first thing they did was cut down all the trees in front of the house, even mature fruit bearers. Now they are looking for somebody to bulldoze all the ohias behind the house. Say they want a really big lawn.

---

Aw man....Say, Jerry, if these folks are in any way open to other ideas, you can let them know I'll come by and offer a design consultation at no charge. Maybe since most of the ohias on Oahu have already been dozed these folks don't really understand how lucky they are to have them. You (or they) can call or email me directly. Hope this works out!

Aloha,
Mitzi

Uluhe Design
Native Landscape Design
uluhedesign@yahoo.com

[Greg]

Anyone around in the early 90's will tell you what happened to the real estate market when a couple of hundred houses disapeared under lava. People forget that a decade is a drop in the geological time bucket. I predict Pele will ultimately determine the market future; Not if, but when.

[Genxor]

I would certainly agree with the entire article.

We are the last, affordable place to live in Hawaii and the secret is out- it doesn't rain here all the time !

Let's hope that the population increase projections used for planning took all of these scenarios into account.

If not .....

Greg Henderson

[Carolann R]

From my room in Honolulu last week it amazed me how many new skyscrapers 30 floors + are being constructed. I saw 4 giant cranes just from my windows. Just seems impossible to put that much weight on an island all in the same general area. (Admittedly, construction-declined by nature!)


I spoke to many people who already have land here that was either their family property or that they have purchased and are in the process of clearing to build (fern acres and mountainview were popular already-purchased lots). When some asked what the average house and lot say in my area was going for and I told them in the $250's or so...they were so surprised that the prices were so LOW. They all said they have a need to stay in Hawaii and would even fly back & forth to Oahu several times a week for their careers once they build here. I was surprised to hear that.

When I used to think about people that will move here, I regarded haole baby boomers first, but after knowing some local families from Oahu that have moved here in the past year, and talking to several people on Oahu that are already in the buying and building process, I'm thinking the locals have found a place where they can still live okay and call Hawaii their home.

It's all good if they find a place that can keep them from transplanting to the mainland if they don't want to.

Oh and now there's the idea that Pele will fight for us here and keep the outside negative forces away!

Carrie

"All I can say about life is, Oh God, enjoy it." Bob Newhart




Edited by - Carolann R on 08/16/2007 01:44:06