Volcano acting up

[bystander]

Those estimated path maps look very scary. The lava could conceivably hit Pahoa, Hawaiian beaches and even HPP.

[Kelena]

When I left Puna yesterday, I sat on the left hand side of the aircraft. You could clearly see the linear steaming path of this flow. Jim's report is very good, and outlines several scenarios. I think I am a full-fledged Punatic now because I can honestly say that I would probably have bought my house even if the flow had begun before instead of after I opened escrow. Round and round the lava goes, and where she flows, nobody knows. In the meantime, what a glorious place to live. I can't wait to come over full time. It would be very nice if the flow just stopped, though.

Jim seems to say that a lava tube would have to form or the effusion rate would have to increase before it became a problem for residential areas. However, the coconut wireless seems to have formed the opinion that this is a "when" and not "if" flow, that will reach down lower. Perhaps that is why civil defense is urging everyone to listen to the folks at Hawaii Volcano Observatory.

[JerryCarr]

Dr. Kauahikaua has written an excellent analysis based on solid science, but in terms that most of us can understand. We are lucky to have an expert who can communicate so well to us ordinary Joes. As Glen correctly surmises, we should be OK unless it crusts over forming a tube or dramatically increases its volume. If things do go critical, it looks like the Makuu side fringes of HPP could be at the most risk. Let's hope that never happens.

Cheerfully optimistic for now,
Jerry

[Greg]

Glen, I feel that besides flow and volume rates, another scenario that could threaten residential areas is longevity. If this episode lasted months or even years what would happen? Aloha, Hurry back.

[Jeffhale]

I gather from Dr. Kauahikaua's report, if the flow continues, it will be quite some time before it would threaten the population of Puna.. I hadn't considered originally, but after watching it these few weeks and his report, it's going to began spreading wider and wider.. So long as it does not create lava tubes, it can take some time to be threatening. And even then it might go threw a tube for a short distance and spread for some time again.. Requiring many tubes or super long tubes to be a danger. And there's a greater likelihood that this fissure’s activity will end, birthing another flow, adding greater odds of a southern trend verses north..

And, without tubes it might continue piling on its self, slowly rising on the ridge creating another possibility of making a southern trend.

It is amazing, once you’ve seen just how big the lava river is, and how fast it flows which has had so much lava flowing almost constantly, and it's gone such a small distance.. The film I’ve seen (not available anymore) of the lava river is very wide and flowing as fast as any river. A river the same size in contrast would have reached the coast last month and be so continuous it would be named by now, with people wanting bridges built.. . . .

I sure am glad Dr. Kauahikaua submitted this report and it's on the web, to be read..

can't believe how close my map, guess-ta-mit is to their findings too. But those are where water would flow, Lava, don't have to do that providing it has a chance to cool..


Edited by - Jeffhale on 09/02/2007 19:31:09

[Carey]

We were up at the Onizuka Vistor's Center up at the observatories last night, and you can see the flow from up there. It was so cool to look down on the red flow & up at the blanket of stars above.

[AlohaSteven]

Hi Folks-

This is my first post on Punaweb so hopefully the formatting and etiquette come through OK.

My partner and I still live in Alaska --for the moment-- but own and are in the process of building on a lot in Pahoa town as well some rural acreage a few miles south of Pahoa; we appreciate the great community and natural beauty there and intend to relocate over to Puna. Given the construction we have moving forward, this most recent volcanic activity near Pahoa has indeed been interesting.

Most of my life has been lived either on top of or within sight of active volcanoes or major earthquake faults in California, Indonesia, and Alaska and I've been through several eruptions and big quakes, so while I am indeed mighty impressed by the recent activity there is also no sense of panic, either. I think people in Anchorage (site of a killer 9.2 magnitude earthquake in 1964 and situated nearby a couple active volcanoes which have necessitated shoveling ash loads off of roofs fairly recently as well) as well as folks living along coastal California are far more at risk in many ways than most of the population in Puna. Personally, I find it almost reassuring to see lava oozing (though I do wish it would head south as it has in past) and to feel occasional small quakes. The silent build-up of explosive pressures and massive quakes is far more worrisome.

That said, I have a question for those of you with long experience in Hawaii concerning Plan B options if indeed the short direct road between Hilo and Pahoa becomes cut by a long-term slow flow of lava.

The economic consequences to Puna could be considerable, of course, if the ground supply route for petrochemical fuels and essential imported supplies jumps from twenty-something to one-hundred-plus miles and travel time for people needing to visit Hilo for services unavailable locally likewise jumps considerably. While a long-term severing of a short and direct ground route between Puna and Hilo could produce significant additional incentives for development of local ethanol production and "alternative" power sources (solar, wind, biomass, etc) for local use and --optimistically-- perhaps even encourage a Renaissance of sorts in local community-oriented institutions and businesses, the capital-intensive and specialized nature of some services (instrumentation-heavy advanced medical services, for instance) will still neccesitate people travel to Hilo for needs to be met. This is exactly the situation for most communities in Alaska: here, there is no road to Anchorage, Fairbanks, or Juneau (the only major urban centers) so people must either take the ferry or jump aboard a small plane and fly. Doing so raises the cost of living but works fairly well for the most part. A fleet of largely owner-operated small planes buzzes back and forth several times a day between most communities and the regional hubs or major urban centers, and the ferry boats travel around their circuit in a regular schedule of picking up and delivering people, vehicles, and goods from place to place. Remember, if a scale-accurate map of Alaska is superimposed on a same-scale map of the Lower 48 (Mainland, to you) then Alaska extends from Georgia up to cover most of the Great Lakes region and then extend out past Baja California. Alaska is so huge that it could be cut in two and Texas would still disappear if dropped into either half (as we love to remind Texans) and yet this system still works well here. When I say the distances involved between Puna and Hilo are shorter, I mean hugely shorter; no -10 to -60 degree F travel conditions to cope with either. So, I am wondering, why would this same system not work for Puna at least as well if the short and direct ground route becomes indefinitely cut off? Are there some geographical, economic, or cultural constraints precluding the construction of a ferry dock in Puna facilitating several-times-daily service between Puna and Hilo? If Alaskan small plane operators can be successful flying much longer distances in much MUCH worse weather and using much more expensive av-gas to provide many-times-daily transportation between rural Alaskan villages and regional hubs then why would this option not work at least as well --and probably much better-- to connect sites throughout Puna with Hilo? Please forgive my newbie naivete if the notion itself brings a horselaugh; the question is sincere. It just seems to me if small plane transport and ferry transport work well to connect otherwise isolated rural Alaskan villages under harsher and more expensive conditions across much longer distances, then such could work work at least as well to connect Puna. Certainly no significant fraction of 10,000 people will ever commute back and forth to daily jobs in Hilo by small plane and/or ferry service linkage, but tourists could come and go at will and locals could visit Hilo at need without such being a huge disruption or cost in either time or money, or so it seems to me.

How about it?

Best Regards,
Steven

[Kapohocat]

I heartily agree with you. I think there are many ways we could compensate for the Hwy being cut off (if that happens). I think that many people will have a hard time with changing their established comfort levels and lifestyles to adapt to living on a active volcano.

Me, I cringe when I have to make one trip a week into town but i know people that are in twice a day! Why?!! Pele may accomplish what us mere mortals cant - and that is keeping Puna Puna.

[Carey]

Steven, the waterways were the major routes of commerce on this island until relatively recently (the surplus Jeep population post WWII did a lot to bring land transit around the island). There are many landings that are still utilized & many that are no long utilized, that could be looked at....if ferry traffic is the way to go...
I do not know how people here will like to be held to a schedule & the increased length of time a ferry would take (the buses are free, run 6x a day in & out of Pahoa & are rarely full, maybe 2 or 3 buses a month are full, most of the runs are 1/2 full or less....) but that is, for now, just a speculative process...& hopefully it will remain so...
Your writing reminded me of reading about the not so distant past Muana Loa flows toward Hilo (1984)...Think of the upset that a flow reaching Hilo would cause to the island!

[Kelena]

Finally a home for the Superferry! It could come in at Isaac Hale Beach Park (might need to swim out to it or enterprising Punatics can offer an outrigger shuttle service). Then off to Hilo (and/or Kona or Kohala) we go!! Property values would hit the roof.

An alternative method of getting to Hilo would be to have everyone go into together and find the lava tube (or system) that leads from Puna to Hilo, and then install a sort of "mining train" to shuttle us to Hilo. It could also serve as a tourist attraction. Of course, it will be very important to make sure there is no actual lava in the lava tube, to avoid any discomfort to the passengers.