Threat to Pahoa?!

[NanawaleJulie]

Is Nanawale Estates in jeopardy? Mahalo.

[Kelena]

Julie,

There is no immediate threat to any community in Puna.

This is a slow moving event. Everything is happening in slow motion and because the North side of the rift is less steep, the lava, at present, is not getting far very quickly. It can takes months for lava to leave the mountain and march to the sea, if it ever does. You can follow the daily reports here: http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/hvostatus.php

Dr. Jim Kauahikaua's report (linked in another comment) provides the most solid information to date. His report indicates that there is no immediate hazard to nearby communities. As for future hazards, he outlines three scenarios: 1) It stops dead. 2) Fissure activity continues to feed the channel, a scenario that would become more menacing only if there is a significant increase in the effusion rate (I think that means more lava, and lots of it --enough to keep the flow from "stalling". He also says changes at the vent could allow lava to flow southeastward. 3) It crusts over and spawns lava tubes and "pancake batter" type flows. If the lava is insulated in a tube, that will allow the lava to stay hotter longer, and go further faster.

Lastly, statistically (as someone pointed out above), the longer an eruption lasts, the more likely it is to produce the kind of flow that forms a tube and could march to the sea, Sherman-like. But that is not the present scenario.

As to where this COULD go, no one knows, except downhill is a good bet, probably following a flow path indicated in Figure 2 of the report. Some things about the flow would have to change before that occurred, as noted above.

This is my intepretation of the report. Don't rely on it in making any decisions as I am inexpert in these matters and am not even a very good amateur. Do read the report. The takeaway message is there is no immediate danger to ANY neighborhood in Puna.

Living in Puna is risky. That risk keeps Puna from becoming homogenized. I chose to buy a house in Lava Zone 3, because Zone 3 was deemed to be safer than Zone 1 and Zone 2 (I think Nanawale is in Zone 2).

Guess where the lava is now intruding? That's right -- Zone 3! So, whatever you do, don't listen to me.

[robguz]

I also get some reassurance by looking at HVO map for the area covered in 83-86. 3 years in basically a small area around the current vent and downhill. It could be quite a while before it ventures too far even it remains active at the new vents.

[ericlp]

Standing in HPP on 22nd close to hilo side... Pretty good red glow in the distance. My neighbor told me it was 5 miles away from Pahoa... Hmmm Don't know if that's true or not but wow... It sure looks like it's getting closer ... amazing that no new news on this yet...

[Kelena]

Yes, the daily report yesterday did indicate that it had overflowed its channel, although this appears to be what it does. Overflow, stall, overflow, stall. The daily report is a just-the-facts statement which does attempt to predict what will happen next. That seems like silence. There is a difference between what HVO is saying and the buzz in Puna. The buzz in Puna is pretty clear: This one is serious. It does not seem to be as serious as the breakout described in Aloha o Kalapana, the book discussed in another thread, that details the Kapoho eruption, where there were curtains of fire and the lava was erupting on the spot, not erupting from a vent or fissure elsewhere.

But when you can see the red glare, I imagine it is pretty disconcerting. Best article I have seen on the volcano is at: http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/volcano/

Puts it in layman's terms and explains why for it to be truly a matter of concern, the vent would have to pick up the pace, and pump up the volume. Still, when it is only five, strike that, seven miles from Pahoa........



Edited by - glen on 09/07/2007 06:20:00

Edited by - glen on 09/07/2007 07:22:40

[Tahunatics]

It's 7 miles from Pahoa.

[morganlady]

From what I see on the posted map, there's a previous flow (from 1986) that was closer to Pahoa than what is occurring today. I'll keep up my Nanawale home insurance, tho :^)

[John S. Rabi]

You better check your insurance policy again, there is no such a thing as "lava insurance."

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"

[bystander]

But there is fire insurance. A house could burn down before the lava even touches it. In that event, I wonder if insurance would cover it.



Edited by - bystander on 09/07/2007 08:51:53

[Green]

Well if you look whats happened to those poor people in new orleans, I dont think we can count on the insurance companies. ie; we're probably "SOOL"