Threat to Pahoa?!

[John S. Rabi]

quote:

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But there is fire insurance. A house could burn down before the lava even touches it. In that event, I wonder if insurance would cover it.

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Yes, it would cover it under the fire insurance section. That was the case in Kalapana too.

Aloha,
John S. Rabi, ABR,CM,CRB,FHS,RB
http://www.JohnRabi.com
Typically Tropical Properties
"The Next Level of Service!"

[dakine]

glen - you said "...the vent would have to pick up the pace, and pump up the volume." and this is not the case. the amount of lava being erupted is actually pretty high by the standards set by the last 25 years. what is keeping the flows from leaving the immediate area is the lack of a tube system. and I believe that it is only a matter of time before one develops. during kupaianaha the same sequence played out, and if that was any indicator I suspect that in the next month or two we will see the beginning of one take shape. but until that happens we can hope that it doesn't.

robguz - your observation that during the 83 - 86 period the lava did not venture any further from the vent than it is now misses one fundamental point, which is that during that time we had 47 different eruptions that on average happened once every three weeks and only lasted less than a day each. these eruptions put out more than 10 million cubic meters of lava in one day, but the lava was all aa flows and because the eruptions were so short they were not able to get very far.

[Green]

John, Only problem with your scenario, Kalapana was yrs. ago., katrina was what 2 yrs. ago! Things have changed, just in case you havent noticed, what once was up is now down !

[Kelena]

Yes, Dakine, we agree about the lava tube. If it forms a tube (which it will often do if it hangs around long enough), its off to the races.

Although the flow is about three times higher than has been usual during the period 1983-2007, HVO says <<It would take an increase in the eruption rate to get the currently forming aa flows to advance more than the three to four miles currently observed.>>

That being, pictures are worth a thousand words. I check the webcam while it is dark in Hawaii. Spooky. It is a very long ribbon of fire that looks like it is getting longer and longer. As you point out, the flow rate is actually pretty high, but if I read the report correctly it is not high enough at this point to send it far fast.

Of course, if there were a slow leak of a volcano within 7 miles of my subdivision here in Southern California, there would be panic in the streets.

Entirely different point of view over there.

[mella l]

Glen would you please post the webcam for me?

I just checked the Pu'u Oo cam and don't see a flow. Thanks.

mella l

[glennoid]

It's all dark now...

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam3/

[Kahunascott]

That just means the camera isn't working. Early this morning with the VOG the entire sky over Pahoa was brigt red.

[Jeffhale]

Welp, it is gonna be difficult for the flow to turn south now.. Yesterday's overflight and new photographs shows the lava river made its self some nice river banks, cliffs which will retain the flow quite nicely.. Errr!!
See link:
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/images.html

[Kelena]

Hey, Mella,

Glenoid provides the link above. Best time to look at it is in the morning California time, when it is still dark over there, if you want to see the "ribbon of fire".

This one is not sticking with the model very well. The flow volume may have been underestimated. It seems to want to push past its boundaries. Again, rank speculation from a paranoid who finds everything about Hawai'i scary....and alluring.

I'm saying Highway 130 by Thanksgiving.

[Chunkster]

The latest map shows the flow making a "thumb" on the southern edge of the extended flow. http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/maps.html