Volcano acting up

[Kahunascott]

Carrolann,
The sky is most red when the forest is burning at night. So when there's no fire the glow is not so bright.

"Many dreams come true and some have silver linings, I look for my dreams and a pocket full of gold" Led Zeppelin

[Andrew]

It seems from looking at the PDF map at http://www.lavainfo.us/ that the flow is definitely taking a turn back toward the ocean.

FWIW,
ANdrew

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[csgray]

That map is outdated. Several days ago HVOG reported on their site that the formerly eastern bend in the channel has been abandoned and is now spilling Pahoehoe out the former site of the bend and is producing multiple seeps out of both sides of the channel. This is where the lava pushes out from under the bottom 'skirts" of the perched ponds and channel. The webcam has had really great shots of this most early mornings, before the first light of dawn. That channel is now high and very full. From the webcam it looks like things have pushed out another 25% or so over old flows, but it is hard to tell exactly because the landmarks shown on the webcam aren't shown on the maps HVOG posts.

If you read the past history of Kupaianaha it created a perched lake which then overflowed pahoehoe which took out Kalapana. The present day rise seen behind the lava channel on the webcam is the remnant of that perched lake, it is also the the geologic feature which is pushing the current eruption away from the ocean. I think we will have a lot better idea of what direction things are headed by Halloween. The joker in the deck is the fact that unlike water, lava doesn't only flow downhill and it raises the land it flows over, changing the lowest path of descent. This is what makes it hard to predict where lava will end up flowing. We are all Pele's tenants here.

carol

[csgray]

The new maps are up at: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/update/maps.html
scroll down to the second map, it show which directions the pahoehoe is going at this time.

carol

[Kelena]

Good observation, Carol. Yes, the lava is now forming a fan of the dreaded pahoehoe and has been making a concerted effort to crust over the channel. The crusts, so far, just get swept down into the channel. But the lava has gone ropey and smooth and is now fanning out. A seep to the South here and there, but most Northeast.

Halloween isn't even here and I'm a little skeered.

[Kelena]

I am less concerned about this than I was before the fires here in Southern California. It was pretty unpleasant here. Still, I read the HVO reports everyday, the way that some people in the CIA used to read Pravda for little clues to what powerbrokers in the former Soviet Union were thinking.

Today's report: We got a tube, and we got pahoehoe. I have a little trouble interepreting HVO's jargon-laced reports, but if I recall correctly what we don't want is a tube, and we don't want pahoehoe which flows much more quickly that a'a (blocky lava). And we don't want pahoehoe flowing through a tube.

HVO reports that the flow advanced along the northern margin and that the flow is tube-fed pahoehoe. It went about a mile and half from the end of the channel. That's a long way.

HVO's reports are very careful to report observations only and to avoid interpretations of those observations. But as a veteran HVO report watcher, I have to say that in today's report I sensed just a twinge of concern among HVO scientists.

A tube and pahoehoe. I knew I shouldn't have watched that program "Megadisasters: Hawaii Apocalypse" last night.

[missydog1]

Glen, are you also reading the recommended report at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1264/
(actually the 12 page pdf linked on that page)

too bad Jim hasn't updated since August. Maybe soon?

I don't know when this was written:
"The most recent episode in the ongoing Pu‘ ‘Ō‘ō—Kupaianaha eruption of Kīlauea Volcano is currently producing lava flows north of the east rift zone. Although they pose no immediate threat to communities, changes in flow behavior could conceivably cause future flows to advance downrift and impact communities thus far unaffected... Members of the public are advised to increase their general awareness of these hazards and stay up-to-date on current conditions."

Maybe earlier this summer? Although not alarmist, it is also less than reassuring.

I saw the Mega-disasters ...
like the whole series, they have to sensationalize and paint worst case scenarios to make the show dramatic.

I thought it had some good information, but was still written so as to provoke maximum anxiety ... all very nice and entertaining if you are sitting far from the islands and it wouldn't affect you.

I thought the reminder that Kilauea can be explosive was useful. We all got so used to the nice tame flow that people could hike to, a lot of people don't even realize that Kilauea can be --make that WILL be--dynamic and unpredictable.

[Kelena]

Yes, Kathy. I did read Jim's report. It was very well done, and I think addresses the current turn of events. Of course, the flow could stop tomorrow, but he makes clear that a tube insulates the lava and allows it to travel further faster and that pahoehoe flows are more fluid.

I actually enjoyed the "Megadisasters" program. The voiceover was ominous and comically scary but the program was otherwise factually correct (or seemed so). I found it very interesting that Mauna Loa rarely remains quiet for long. It looks so peaceful and quiet!

[missydog1]

glen,
I enjoyed the program too ... although such programs get my parents worked up about where I live ...

As you know, Jim's document outlines the tube/pahoehoe flow as one of three possible developments -- as of last August. It will be interesting to see when he updates to reflect the potential as an actuality.

As has been noted, it's kind of soon to see whether that's going to sustain and start traveling. It could all stop in its tracks.

I looked at Jim's "pink" lines of least resistance traveling from the current northeast finger -- and what I see is that one line goes down to the southern edge of HPP and the other to Hawaiian Beaches .. with maybe a side branch into Nanawele.

But as he says, the lava flow changes the topography as it goes, so the pink lines are only good for saying which way it would go if the flow didn't build up new areas.

[Lee G]

On the current update page click on the "images" Oct 26, 2007 photo top right
quote: " The downstream end of the channel is not a dead end, but rather the entrance to a lava tube. Lava is pouring into the tube on the right side of the channel, beneath the thick gas plume."
Hmmm. it's getting interesting and has traveled 1.5 miles in one week. Not much going South except for seepage/overflow from the channel. Glen's prediction may be spot on. wait & see.
Lee