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In today's Trib-Herald Calendar section:
"Lava Flow Update for HPP
HPP Activity Center 3-3:30 Sunday Oct. 28
HPP Emergency Notification & Education Team will host Troy Kindred, Civil Defence & Jim Kauahikaua HVNP, talking about teh current flow. The HPP ENET urges HPP residents to attend. Disaster Brocheres available."
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Its been a couple of days since I looked at the HVO eruption info and WOW...a lava tube. That strikes me as a big deal.
In Jim's report he makes it clear that a flow will not extend very far without a tube. He also says there has never been a long eruption that does not develop tubes. But I could not find any info on how tubes form, what the early stages are, etc.
I was thinking of going to the HPP meeting before I read the update. Now I will definitely be there.
Does anyone know where the tube starts? Looking at the map HVO map I would guess it extends from the "Oct 19-26 flow expansion" and then extends a mile from there. Where does this put it on the HVO report watercourse map (the one with all the red lines.)
Maybe its time for the county to start connecting 130 to Chain of Craters road. Why wait until the last minute?
Jerry
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http://www.artandorchids.com
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So we have Jim Kauahikaua coming down to HPP, an earthquake under the Pali, a tube plus pahoehoe, and a channel that is attempting to crust over in several places. The volume of lava cannot quite be contained in the current channel. Not clear on direction, but it appears to be basically East. Pu'o o'o is sleeping, fitfully. This appears to be the new Lava Avenue. It's up there, subject to gravity. It is very, very hot and craves a sizzle in the sea. Does rain contribute to crusting?
If an old decript lady comes to your door this Halloween, begging, let her in!
Glen, what and when was "the earthquake under the pali"?
that was the thing in your list of significant happenings that was new to me.
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I'm referring to the short sharp shocker felt in HPP that originated beneath Ka'ena Point, which was described as being beneath Ho**** Pali. I don't remember the name of the Pali.
Today's HVO report induces some calm: Doesn't look like the tube fed flow has really advanced much since Friday (they are not sure because of the rain).
oh OK! I hadn't heard the "pali" reference.
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Can someone who went to the meeting in HPP let us know what Jim K. said about the current eruption? Mahalo
carol
Carol
Every time you feel yourself getting pulled into other people's nonsense, repeat these words: Not my circus, not my monkeys.
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I just got home from the meeting and reviewed my notes before writing this. I would have been on here sooner, but I had to stay to participate in the HPP Association meeting that followed the volcano presentation. (Road paving committee report went on and on, but was important.)
Jim Kauahikaua gave a sobering report. He must have said at least five times, "There is no immediate danger," but he added that "we have crossed an important threshold with the formation of a lava tube and an associated pahoehoe flow." He had slides showing up to the minute maps and relief lines showing the most likely course of continued advance of the flow. He gave three possible scenarios for the eruption itself. First, it could shift up or down the rift zone at any time. Second, it could slow down or even stop entirely. Third, it could continue erupting as at present. He did imply that it is somewhat unlikely to increase its flow in the present location since it is currently putting out lava at a rate considerably above the historical average.
The flow is currently "fanning out" rather than advancing straight downhill. Jim added that this makes it agonizingly slow for the eventual outcome to become apparent. Due to the fanning, it is impossible at this stage to know which of half a dozen potential paths downhill might be taken. It is unlikely that the thing will punch through a narrow corridor to the sea and more likely that it will continue to spread over a wide area.
The scariest thing he said was that if it continues at its current level of output and direction it would eventually get to our "current location," i.e. the HPP Community Center at Makuu and 16th. He also said that the dips in the road between Ainaloa and Pahoa were likely places for Highway 130 to be cut. It could also be cut in more than one place due to fanning. Further complicating matters is the fact that the flow creates its own topography as it builds up levees and mounds.
When people asked for a time frame, Jim would only say that it could be a very long time because the slope the current flow is one is only a fourth as steep as the old Pu'u O'o flow. Extrapolating from that and other things he said, that could be anywhere from sixteen months to several years to get to the sea. (I could be wildly off on that estimate.)
To everyone's great disappointment, Troy Kindred from County Civil Defense could not be there due to the fires on the other side of the island. Jim declined to answer most questions about roads and evacuations, other than to say that a gravel road connection Kalapana with Chain of Craters road could be built as long as no deep excavation were done. The Campout Flow is apparently still too hot to lay asphalt over or dig into.
If anyone else was there, please add to or correct my report. I did take notes, but I might have gotten something wrong or missed something.
Suddenly less cheerful,
Jerry
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I went to the meeting this afternoon and Mr Jim K had a powerpoint presentation of the current eruption all photographs and maps were taken from the web site so there wasn't anything new that he showed us or said that wasn't already on the website. I would say at least 200 people in attendance.
There was a question and answer session afterwards. First question was from a guy that lost his home in Royal Gardens in 1987
and he said don't put much faith in the USGS and we should all be very concerned about this and we should all make plans and then he stormed out of the room, that kinda set the tone and Jim had to remind us several times that his job is very specific and it didn't include civil defense. Lot's of scenarios were talked about but basically he said if it keeps flowing like it was it would most likely cross the highway and go to the sea in a matter of months or years? Everything had a question mark after it because nobody can predict the future, After all it could just stop but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
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Jerry, I think you summed it up very well. No "immediate danger" and no way to know exactly where it's going to go or how long it would take to get there. I felt a little sorry for Jim. Here he was volunteering his time to inform everyone and it seemed to me, at least, that he was being verbally attacked left and right for not knowing exactly where the lava will flow and not saying exactly what "no immediate danger" means. To me, it means it is not an immediate threat to any residential areas. IMHO if you have bought property here, on an volcanic island, knowing the risk, then you have no room to complain or blame anyone for not having all the answers.
Jody
Edited by - Jody on 10/28/2007 16:58:42
