Oil at 92.35 a barrel.

[David D]

The profits wouldn't be there if there wasn't record consumption. Blaming the Petroleum Industry is too black and white.

[Tahunatics]

This morning oil is over $96 and the Dow Jones dropped over 200 in the first 20 minutes of trading. It's simply supply vs demand. Oil supplies and production numbers are dropping while demand is growing fast, largely because of the huge growing demand from China and India which represents over 2 billion people. The ex Saudi Oil Minister has recently come out saying they overstated their reserves by 300 billion barrels!

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5Tta...AD8SKT14O5

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.as...tryId=1148

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3064

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-10-31-voa81.cfm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0d83bfa-87df-...ck_check=1

http://www.energybulletin.net/36566.html

http://www.energybulletin.net/36510.html

http://tinyurl.com/23gojh

We apparently have reached the Peak in global oil production slightly sooner than many expected. If so this decline in supply will be permanent.

Oil prices are already effecting tourism in Hawaii.

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stori...ily26.html

The Bush/Cheney oil administration has been fully aware of this for many years according to Matt Simmons, president of Cheney's secretive energy task force. This is the real reason we are in Iraq and beating the drums of war for Iran. What's ironic is wars for oil will only use up the oil faster. Think about how much energy our miltary is using to conduct a war, when we need the remaining fossil fuels to transition to alternative energy sources.

Edited by - Tahunatics on 11/01/2007 03:57:17

[JWFITZ]

While the large scale use of biofuels is pretty hard to support in a world facing food shortages--ethanol in Hawaii could make a good deal of sense. It's easily done on a homestead level as well. A good reflux still will turn 5 gallons of guava mash(14% sugar content?) into about a liter and a half of 94% ethanol. Depending on how one blends it with gasoline it needs to be dehydrated by one trick or another. Most cars will handle 10 to 15 percent ethanol as is, some as much as 30. With a conversion regulator even 80 percent ethanol will run in most modern cars. The conversion kits run about 300 bucks.

It makes a fine cooking fuel as well, and may provide an alternative to gas.

High pectin content fruits produce a higher amount of methanol than grain fermentation processes, and if to be used for purposes "other" than fuel the yield will be slightly less as the "heads" need to be discarded.

[Bob Orts]

With a conversion regulator even 80 percent ethanol will run in most modern cars.
_____________________

Ahh, and that's where the oil industry spent their bribe money well. They actually got the representatives of the people of the US of A to pass a regulation that prohibits a conversion from one fuel to another unless the company doing the conversion can “legally certify" by scientific study, that the emissions from the new fuel source will be absolutely lower than the emissions from the older fuel source. Unfortunately, unless converting to electric, it can't be done. All fuels will produce some level of pollution just slightly higher than the original source in one of the many areas that must be examined. It doesn't matter if the total pollution output of the new fuel is 99% cleaner. So long as any single part is higher, the conversion can't be done. So contact your federal representatives and ask them how much money they took from the oil industry to pass this knucklehead regulation.

[JWFITZ]

That wouldn't be the first law I'd just elect to completely ignore.

Brazil is a real leader in flex fuel--to the utter destruction of the amazon, but the kits are very easy to install and available on-line. If you had a scooter or some such and you wanted to run wholly on booze, the simplest thing to do is bump the compression ratio way up(assuming the little piece of crap motor will take it, which is questionable). You need in the neighborhood of 19 to 1. But when you think that you could get about 40 mpf(miles per fifth) on guava homebrew--it's pretty hard to not consider it.

I wonder if you can get busted for open container. Talk about the drunk drivers fantasy machine--just run a straw into the fuel tank. . .that would be quite the popskull experience.

[Menehune]

Really good article on pro's and con's of ethanol!

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/...fuels.html

Joey "O"

[Bob Orts]

The majority of the negative things said about ethanol really isn’t about the fuel, it's about the fuel supply and production.

In the US, ethanol isn't a take it or leave it fuel. FlexFuel vehicles can start using gasoline and as and when supplies are available at the right price, people start switching over. There’s no immediate demand to supply E85 to all the FlexFuel vehicles on the roads since many are using regular gasoline. As farmers start producing ethanol production plants, the fuel is made and becomes available. There are no demand problems, thus no need to plant sugar cane in cemeteries or cut down western forest to meet the demand.

In South America, it's often all or nothing. People have to use ethanol because gasoline is so expensive, not available, or their cars aren't FlexFuel. But the ability to produce the product to make ethanol still lags in some areas resulting in deforestation as land is cleared to grow ethanol producing products. But as more and more farmers realize they don't need to plant crops for export to the US, and begin switching to ethanol crops, the amount of land cleared will subside. It's the old thing, if you have 1,000 acres you’ve always planted with lettuce, and 900 of those acres are for export, although you can plant a crop for use in ethanol, it takes time for an established farmer to make that changeover. Since the ethanol crop is needed now, some one is going to clear land just to plant it. As the established farmer moves those 900 acres of export land to domestic ethanol production, land clearing won't be necessary. Remember that ethanol consumption literally exploded overnight in SA. The drawback is the US fruit and vegetable market will run into shortages as framers realize why am I planting something that yields $75 an acre for export to the United States when I can change over to a product needed domestically and get $125 and acre? And since the domestic product is for fuel production and not human consumption, I have fewer problems.

[NanawaleJulie]

quote:

---

With a conversion regulator even 80 percent ethanol will run in most modern cars.
_____________________

Ahh, and that's where the oil industry spent their bribe money well. They actually got the representatives of the people of the US of A to pass a regulation that prohibits a conversion from one fuel to another unless the company doing the conversion can “legally certify" by scientific study, that the emissions from the new fuel source will be absolutely lower than the emissions from the older fuel source. Unfortunately, unless converting to electric, it can't be done. All fuels will produce some level of pollution just slightly higher than the original source in one of the many areas that must be examined. It doesn't matter if the total pollution output of the new fuel is 99% cleaner. So long as any single part is higher, the conversion can't be done. So contact your federal representatives and ask them how much money they took from the oil industry to pass this knucklehead regulation.

---

Bob, you are getting me all hot and bothered here with your smarts. You better cut that out promptly. Wink.

David D-just the opposite. We are becoming a more industrialized globe. There are more and more people. It is bound to happen. Pretty black and white to me. Would you like to return back in time? Never get into a car or bus? Walk everywhere you go forever? Turn stores into rubble so that we don't have to use the energy to freeze meat and light the store, etc. etc.??
We will never be horse and buggy again-unless we are all wiped out and have to start out all over again.

[JWFITZ]

It would be very easy to get tossed back to a horse and buggy existence. Or more like foot transportation. While we will not loose the technology, it would be very easy to the loose the means to afford to purchase it.

The dollar has lost nearly 20 percent against other major currencies this year. This is a real erosion and real loss of capital. The expectation and trendline projected by most credible economists is to continue in the same manner through 2008.

There as well, is a very serious possibility that that the dollar could become weak enough to loose reserve status. Again, this would affect fuel prices, costs in general, and certainly not help employment.

Hawaii isn't the most prosperous place to begin with, at least for non-retirees. Local economy may well be all that's had.

[Tahunatics]

Some scary financial news out there, rising oil prices aren't helping.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiXLE...AD8SL43EO0

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index...le_id=5010

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnfl...029434.htm

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/am...fallen.htm

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Econ...3Dj03.html

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/01/markets/...atrick.net

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Oil_...e_999.html


Edited by - Tahunatics on 11/03/2007 09:38:44